Intrinsic value of Virtu Financial - VIRT

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$17.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as VIRT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VIRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.81
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  702
  716
  733
  751
  772
  796
  822
  850
  880
  912
  948
  985
  1,025
  1,068
  1,113
  1,161
  1,212
  1,265
  1,322
  1,383
  1,446
  1,513
  1,584
  1,658
  1,737
  1,820
  1,907
  1,998
  2,095
  2,196
  2,303
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  440
  449
  459
  469
  482
  495
  509
  525
  542
  560
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  652
  681
  712
  745
  779
  816
  854
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,131
  1,186
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  93
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
Total operating expenses, $m
  523
  533
  545
  557
  569
  585
  601
  617
  636
  656
  676
  626
  650
  675
  702
  730
  759
  790
  823
  857
  894
  932
  973
  1,015
  1,060
  1,106
  1,155
  1,206
  1,261
  1,317
  1,377
Operating income, $m
  180
  182
  188
  195
  203
  211
  221
  232
  244
  257
  271
  358
  375
  392
  411
  431
  452
  475
  499
  525
  552
  581
  611
  643
  678
  713
  751
  792
  834
  879
  926
EBITDA, $m
  210
  255
  261
  267
  275
  284
  294
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  454
  477
  501
  527
  554
  583
  613
  646
  680
  716
  754
  794
  837
  881
  929
Interest expense (income), $m
  55
  63
  71
  79
  89
  100
  112
  125
  140
  156
  173
  191
  210
  231
  253
  277
  302
  328
  356
  386
  417
  450
  485
  522
  561
  601
  644
  690
  737
  787
  840
Earnings before tax, $m
  180
  119
  117
  116
  114
  112
  109
  107
  104
  102
  99
  167
  164
  161
  158
  154
  151
  147
  143
  139
  135
  131
  126
  122
  117
  112
  107
  102
  97
  91
  85
Tax expense, $m
  22
  32
  32
  31
  31
  30
  29
  29
  28
  27
  27
  45
  44
  43
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  38
  36
  35
  34
  33
  32
  30
  29
  28
  26
  25
  23
Net income, $m
  33
  87
  86
  84
  83
  81
  80
  78
  76
  74
  72
  122
  120
  117
  115
  113
  110
  107
  104
  101
  98
  95
  92
  89
  85
  82
  78
  74
  71
  67
  62

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  181
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,692
  3,710
  3,795
  3,893
  4,002
  4,124
  4,257
  4,402
  4,559
  4,728
  4,909
  5,103
  5,311
  5,531
  5,765
  6,014
  6,278
  6,557
  6,852
  7,164
  7,493
  7,840
  8,206
  8,592
  8,999
  9,427
  9,879
  10,353
  10,853
  11,379
  11,931
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,511
  3,710
  3,795
  3,893
  4,002
  4,124
  4,257
  4,402
  4,559
  4,728
  4,909
  5,103
  5,311
  5,531
  5,765
  6,014
  6,278
  6,557
  6,852
  7,164
  7,493
  7,840
  8,206
  8,592
  8,999
  9,427
  9,879
  10,353
  10,853
  11,379
  11,931
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.200
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
Average production assets, $m
  35
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
Working capital, $m
  0
  -159
  -163
  -167
  -171
  -177
  -182
  -189
  -195
  -203
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -444
  -465
  -488
  -511
Total debt, $m
  590
  630
  707
  794
  892
  1,001
  1,120
  1,250
  1,391
  1,542
  1,705
  1,879
  2,064
  2,262
  2,472
  2,695
  2,931
  3,181
  3,445
  3,725
  4,019
  4,331
  4,659
  5,005
  5,369
  5,753
  6,157
  6,583
  7,030
  7,501
  7,997
Total liabilities, $m
  3,547
  3,324
  3,401
  3,488
  3,586
  3,695
  3,814
  3,944
  4,085
  4,236
  4,399
  4,573
  4,758
  4,956
  5,166
  5,389
  5,625
  5,875
  6,139
  6,419
  6,713
  7,025
  7,353
  7,699
  8,063
  8,447
  8,851
  9,277
  9,724
  10,195
  10,691
Total equity, $m
  146
  386
  395
  405
  416
  429
  443
  458
  474
  492
  511
  531
  552
  575
  600
  625
  653
  682
  713
  745
  779
  815
  853
  894
  936
  980
  1,027
  1,077
  1,129
  1,183
  1,241
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,693
  3,710
  3,796
  3,893
  4,002
  4,124
  4,257
  4,402
  4,559
  4,728
  4,910
  5,104
  5,310
  5,531
  5,766
  6,014
  6,278
  6,557
  6,852
  7,164
  7,492
  7,840
  8,206
  8,593
  8,999
  9,427
  9,878
  10,354
  10,853
  11,378
  11,932
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.041
  1.630
  1.790
  1.960
  2.140
  2.330
  2.530
  2.730
  2.930
  3.140
  3.340
  3.540
  3.740
  3.930
  4.120
  4.310
  4.490
  4.660
  4.830
  5.000
  5.160
  5.310
  5.460
  5.600
  5.740
  5.870
  5.990
  6.110
  6.230
  6.340
  6.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.003
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104
  0.104

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  87
  86
  84
  83
  81
  80
  78
  76
  74
  72
  122
  120
  117
  115
  113
  110
  107
  104
  101
  98
  95
  92
  89
  85
  82
  78
  74
  71
  67
  62
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  72
  72
  72
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  249
  159
  158
  157
  155
  154
  152
  151
  149
  147
  145
  123
  121
  119
  116
  114
  111
  109
  106
  103
  100
  97
  94
  91
  88
  84
  81
  77
  73
  69
  65
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
Cash from operations, $m
  240
  144
  162
  161
  160
  159
  158
  157
  155
  154
  153
  132
  130
  128
  127
  125
  123
  121
  119
  117
  114
  112
  110
  108
  105
  103
  100
  97
  95
  92
  89
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -2
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  181
  143
  160
  160
  159
  157
  156
  155
  153
  152
  150
  129
  128
  126
  124
  122
  120
  118
  115
  113
  111
  108
  106
  103
  101
  98
  95
  92
  89
  86
  83
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  65
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  151
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  425
  448
  471
  495
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -123
  65
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  151
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  384
  404
  425
  448
  471
  495
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  208
  237
  247
  257
  266
  276
  285
  294
  303
  313
  303
  313
  323
  334
  345
  356
  368
  380
  393
  406
  420
  434
  449
  465
  482
  499
  518
  537
  557
  579
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -6
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  156
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  358
  228
  237
  245
  254
  262
  270
  278
  286
  294
  283
  292
  300
  310
  319
  329
  339
  349
  360
  372
  384
  396
  409
  423
  437
  452
  468
  485
  503
  521
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  343
  209
  206
  202
  197
  190
  182
  174
  164
  154
  134
  124
  114
  104
  94
  83
  74
  64
  55
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Virtu Financial, Inc. provides market making and liquidity services to the financial markets worldwide. It provides a technology platform through which it provides quotations to buyers and sellers in equities, commodities, currencies, options, fixed income, and other securities on various exchanges, markets, and liquidity pools. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Virtu Financial (VIRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 75.6
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 17.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 387%
Total Debt to Equity 404.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 23.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.9%
EBITDA Margin 37.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Operating Margin 25.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 12.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Payout Ratio 115.2%

VIRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VIRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $702 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Virtu Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Virtu Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VIRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VIRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Virtu Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Virtu Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VIRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $91 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VIRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.2% for Virtu Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Virtu Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VIRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VIRT are equal to 2.8%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Virtu Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VIRT is equal to -22.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $536 million for Virtu Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 137.64 million for Virtu Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Virtu Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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Stock chart of VIRT Financial statements of VIRT Annual reports of VIRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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