Intrinsic value of Village Super Market Cl A - VLGEA

Previous Close

$23.27

  Intrinsic Value

$41.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+77%

Previous close

$23.27

 
Intrinsic value

$41.22

 
Up/down potential

+77%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VLGEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.83
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,605
  1,637
  1,675
  1,718
  1,766
  1,820
  1,878
  1,942
  2,012
  2,086
  2,166
  2,252
  2,343
  2,441
  2,544
  2,654
  2,770
  2,893
  3,023
  3,161
  3,306
  3,459
  3,621
  3,791
  3,971
  4,160
  4,359
  4,569
  4,789
  5,021
  5,265
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,473
  1,507
  1,546
  1,589
  1,638
  1,690
  1,748
  1,810
  1,877
  1,949
  2,025
  2,107
  2,195
  2,288
  2,386
  2,491
  2,602
  2,719
  2,843
  2,973
  3,111
  3,256
  3,409
  3,571
  3,741
  3,920
  4,108
  4,306
  4,515
  4,734
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,564
  1,598
  1,635
  1,677
  1,724
  1,776
  1,831
  1,893
  1,959
  2,029
  2,105
  2,185
  2,271
  2,363
  2,460
  2,563
  2,672
  2,788
  2,909
  3,038
  3,173
  3,316
  3,466
  3,624
  3,792
  3,967
  4,152
  4,346
  4,550
  4,765
  4,990
Operating income, $m
  41
  39
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  53
  57
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  193
  207
  223
  239
  256
  275
EBITDA, $m
  65
  63
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  83
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  236
  252
  269
  287
  307
  327
  349
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  35
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  193
  207
  222
  238
Tax expense, $m
  16
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  36
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  72
  77
  84
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  174

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  455
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  431
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  560
  583
  609
  635
  663
  693
  725
  758
  793
  830
  869
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,098
  1,151
  1,207
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  368
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  431
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  560
  583
  609
  635
  663
  693
  725
  758
  793
  830
  869
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,098
  1,151
  1,207
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.361
  4.365
  4.362
  4.360
  4.360
  4.365
  4.357
  4.364
  4.364
  4.364
  4.358
  4.364
  4.363
  4.359
  4.364
  4.358
  4.362
  4.363
  4.362
  4.360
  4.361
  4.362
  4.363
  4.362
  4.359
  4.361
  4.359
  4.360
  4.362
  4.362
  4.362
Average production assets, $m
  203
  206
  211
  216
  223
  229
  237
  245
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  308
  321
  334
  349
  365
  381
  398
  417
  436
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  576
  603
  633
  663
Working capital, $m
  85
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Total debt, $m
  44
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  72
  78
  85
  93
  102
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  309
  330
  352
  375
  399
  424
Total liabilities, $m
  168
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  226
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
  548
Total equity, $m
  287
  205
  210
  215
  221
  228
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  306
  319
  332
  347
  362
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  475
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  659
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  455
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  431
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  560
  584
  608
  635
  663
  694
  725
  758
  793
  830
  870
  910
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,099
  1,152
  1,207
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.153
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.543
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  36
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  72
  77
  84
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  174
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  181
  193
  205
  219
  233
  248
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  115
  122
  131
  139
  149
  159
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  249
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  127
  136
  147
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  132
  142
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  20
  19
  18
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Village Super Market, Inc. (Village) is engaged in retail sale of food and nonfood products. As of July 30, 2016, the Company operated a chain of 29 ShopRite supermarkets, 18 of which are located in northern New Jersey, eight in southern New Jersey, two in Maryland and one in northeastern Pennsylvania. The Company is a member of Wakefern Food Corporation (Wakefern), which is a retailer-owned food cooperative and owner of the ShopRite name. As of July 30, 2016, Wakefern operated 336 supermarkets and other retail formats, including 94 stores operated by Wakefern. The Company's stores include the Village Food Garden concept, featuring a restaurant style kitchen and several kiosks offering a variety of store prepared specialty foods for both take-home and in-store dining. The Company offers a range of products, including groceries, dairy and frozen, produce, meats, non-foods, deli and prepared food, pharmacy, seafood, bakery and liquor.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Village Super Market Cl A (VLGEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.6
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 87
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 15%
Total Debt to Equity 15.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Asset Turnover 3.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Operating Margin 2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 41%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 56.5%

VLGEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VLGEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1605 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Village Super Market Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Village Super Market Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VLGEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VLGEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Village Super Market Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Village Super Market Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VLGEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $122 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VLGEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.1% for Village Super Market Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Village Super Market Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VLGEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VLGEA are equal to 12.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Village Super Market Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VLGEA is equal to -0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $287 million for Village Super Market Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.079 million for Village Super Market Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Village Super Market Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Village Super Market, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-15-17 02:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Village Super Market posts 1Q profit   [Dec-05-17 08:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Village Super Market posts 4Q profit   [Oct-06-17 08:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Village Super Market, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-15-17 03:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] As Grocery Stores Struggle, Some CEOs Get Bargain-Bin Bonuses   [Jun-12-17 12:50AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] As Grocery Stores Struggle, Some CEOs Get Bargain-Bin Bonuses   [Jun-10-17 09:49AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Village Super Market posts 3Q profit   [Jun-07-17 08:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Village Super Market, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-17-17 01:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Village Super Market posts 2Q profit   [Mar-08-17 08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Buying a Good Business in a Bad Industry   [Feb-20-17 06:30PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ How Vicor Corp (VICR) Stands Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-20-16 07:55AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Village Super Market, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-16-16 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Attention Shoppers: Yoga in Aisle 3   [Jun-13-16 07:46PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Attention Shoppers: Yoga in Aisle 3   [07:25PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Alico, Inc. (ALCO)   [Nov-28  07:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About InnerWorkings, Inc. (INWK)   [Nov-25  10:42AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Village Super Market, Inc.   [Jun-05  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 5 Grocery Store Stocks to Buy for Grilling Season   [May-22  10:35AM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of VLGEA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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