Intrinsic value of Valmont Industries - VMI

Previous Close

$162.75

  Intrinsic Value

$76.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$162.75

 
Intrinsic value

$76.24

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.70
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  2,522
  2,815
  3,122
  3,446
  3,784
  4,137
  4,505
  4,888
  5,287
  5,701
  6,132
  6,580
  7,045
  7,528
  8,031
  8,554
  9,098
  9,664
  10,254
  10,868
  11,508
  12,176
  12,873
  13,600
  14,360
  15,153
  15,983
  16,850
  17,757
  18,706
  19,700
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,670
  2,959
  3,261
  3,578
  3,909
  4,254
  4,613
  4,987
  5,376
  5,779
  6,167
  6,603
  7,056
  7,527
  8,017
  8,527
  9,058
  9,610
  10,186
  10,786
  11,412
  12,065
  12,747
  13,459
  14,203
  14,980
  15,793
  16,643
  17,533
  18,464
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,278
  2,670
  2,959
  3,261
  3,578
  3,909
  4,254
  4,613
  4,987
  5,376
  5,779
  6,167
  6,603
  7,056
  7,527
  8,017
  8,527
  9,058
  9,610
  10,186
  10,786
  11,412
  12,065
  12,747
  13,459
  14,203
  14,980
  15,793
  16,643
  17,533
  18,464
Operating income, $m
  244
  144
  164
  184
  205
  227
  250
  275
  300
  326
  353
  413
  442
  472
  504
  537
  571
  606
  643
  682
  722
  764
  807
  853
  901
  951
  1,003
  1,057
  1,114
  1,173
  1,236
EBITDA, $m
  326
  239
  265
  292
  321
  351
  382
  414
  448
  483
  520
  558
  597
  638
  681
  725
  771
  819
  869
  921
  975
  1,032
  1,091
  1,153
  1,217
  1,284
  1,355
  1,428
  1,505
  1,586
  1,670
Interest expense (income), $m
  46
  46
  56
  67
  78
  90
  102
  115
  129
  143
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  316
  338
  360
  384
  408
  433
  460
  488
  517
  547
  579
  612
Earnings before tax, $m
  220
  98
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
  240
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
  365
  384
  403
  424
  445
  467
  490
  515
  540
  567
  595
  624
Tax expense, $m
  42
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  168
Net income, $m
  173
  72
  79
  85
  93
  100
  108
  116
  125
  133
  143
  176
  185
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  280
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  414
  434
  455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  400
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,392
  2,223
  2,466
  2,722
  2,989
  3,267
  3,558
  3,861
  4,176
  4,503
  4,844
  5,197
  5,565
  5,947
  6,344
  6,757
  7,186
  7,634
  8,099
  8,584
  9,090
  9,618
  10,168
  10,742
  11,342
  11,969
  12,624
  13,309
  14,026
  14,776
  15,561
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,992
  2,223
  2,466
  2,722
  2,989
  3,267
  3,558
  3,861
  4,176
  4,503
  4,844
  5,197
  5,565
  5,947
  6,344
  6,757
  7,186
  7,634
  8,099
  8,584
  9,090
  9,618
  10,168
  10,742
  11,342
  11,969
  12,624
  13,309
  14,026
  14,776
  15,561
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
Average production assets, $m
  683
  763
  846
  934
  1,025
  1,121
  1,221
  1,325
  1,433
  1,545
  1,662
  1,783
  1,909
  2,040
  2,176
  2,318
  2,466
  2,619
  2,779
  2,945
  3,119
  3,300
  3,488
  3,686
  3,891
  4,106
  4,331
  4,566
  4,812
  5,069
  5,339
Working capital, $m
  903
  563
  624
  689
  757
  827
  901
  978
  1,057
  1,140
  1,226
  1,316
  1,409
  1,506
  1,606
  1,711
  1,820
  1,933
  2,051
  2,174
  2,302
  2,435
  2,575
  2,720
  2,872
  3,031
  3,197
  3,370
  3,551
  3,741
  3,940
Total debt, $m
  756
  921
  1,098
  1,283
  1,477
  1,679
  1,890
  2,110
  2,339
  2,576
  2,823
  3,080
  3,347
  3,624
  3,913
  4,212
  4,524
  4,849
  5,187
  5,539
  5,906
  6,289
  6,689
  7,106
  7,542
  7,997
  8,472
  8,970
  9,490
  10,034
  10,604
Total liabilities, $m
  1,448
  1,614
  1,791
  1,976
  2,170
  2,372
  2,583
  2,803
  3,032
  3,269
  3,516
  3,773
  4,040
  4,317
  4,606
  4,905
  5,217
  5,542
  5,880
  6,232
  6,599
  6,982
  7,382
  7,799
  8,235
  8,690
  9,165
  9,663
  10,183
  10,727
  11,297
Total equity, $m
  943
  609
  676
  746
  819
  895
  975
  1,058
  1,144
  1,234
  1,327
  1,424
  1,525
  1,629
  1,738
  1,851
  1,969
  2,092
  2,219
  2,352
  2,491
  2,635
  2,786
  2,943
  3,108
  3,280
  3,459
  3,647
  3,843
  4,049
  4,264
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,391
  2,223
  2,467
  2,722
  2,989
  3,267
  3,558
  3,861
  4,176
  4,503
  4,843
  5,197
  5,565
  5,946
  6,344
  6,756
  7,186
  7,634
  8,099
  8,584
  9,090
  9,617
  10,168
  10,742
  11,343
  11,970
  12,624
  13,310
  14,026
  14,776
  15,561
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.802
  1.510
  1.620
  1.720
  1.800
  1.880
  1.940
  1.990
  2.040
  2.090
  2.130
  2.160
  2.200
  2.220
  2.250
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.370
  2.390
  2.400
  2.410
  2.430
  2.440
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.480
  2.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.273
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  173
  72
  79
  85
  93
  100
  108
  116
  125
  133
  143
  176
  185
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  280
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  414
  434
  455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  145
  155
  166
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  254
  268
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  434
Funds from operations, $m
  205
  166
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  310
  321
  341
  362
  383
  406
  429
  454
  480
  506
  534
  563
  593
  625
  657
  692
  728
  766
  805
  846
  889
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
Cash from operations, $m
  219
  107
  118
  129
  141
  153
  166
  179
  194
  208
  224
  231
  248
  265
  283
  301
  321
  341
  362
  383
  406
  429
  454
  479
  506
  533
  562
  592
  623
  656
  691
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -116
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -254
  -268
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -412
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -135
  -145
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -216
  -228
  -243
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -335
  -353
  -373
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -506
  -531
  -559
  -587
  -617
  -648
  -681
Free cash flow, $m
  166
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  167
  177
  185
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  417
  436
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  570
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  167
  177
  185
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  417
  436
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  570
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  139
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  396
  415
  436
  457
  479
  502
  527
  552
  579
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -215
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  398
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  473
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  134
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  315
  330
  347
  364
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  453
  75
  76
  77
  77
  77
  76
  75
  73
  71
  64
  61
  58
  54
  50
  45
  41
  37
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Valmont Industries, Inc. is a producer of fabricated metal products, and steel, aluminum and composite pole, tower and other structures, and mechanized irrigation systems. The Company's segments are Engineered Support Structures (ESS); Utility Support Structures; Energy and Mining; Coatings; Irrigation, and Other. The ESS segment manufactures steel, aluminum, and composite poles and structures. The Utility Support Structures Segment manufactures steel and concrete pole structures for electrical transmission, substation and distribution applications. The Energy and Mining Segment produces access systems, which are engineered structures and components that allow people to move safely in an industrial, infrastructure or commercial facility. The Coatings Segment consists of galvanizing, anodizing and powder coating services on a global basis. The Irrigation Segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment and related service parts under the Valley brand name.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Valmont Industries (VMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.2
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 200
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 80%
Total Debt to Equity 80.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 18.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 19.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 19.7%

VMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2522 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Valmont Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Valmont Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Valmont Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Valmont Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for Valmont Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Valmont Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VMI are equal to 27.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Valmont Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VMI is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $943 million for Valmont Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.571 million for Valmont Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Valmont Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Valmont misses 3Q profit forecasts   [07:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Valmont Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-18-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-05-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Announces Sale of Mining Consumables Business   [Aug-24-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-19-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-05-17 11:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-19-17 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-06-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ What Smart Money Thinks about Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)   [Dec-01-16 12:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying J2 Global Inc (JCOM)   [Nov-29-16 01:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of VMI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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