Intrinsic value of VOXX International - VOXX

Previous Close

$7.70

  Intrinsic Value

$3.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$7.70

 
Intrinsic value

$3.03

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VOXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  681
  695
  711
  729
  749
  772
  797
  824
  854
  885
  919
  956
  994
  1,036
  1,079
  1,126
  1,175
  1,228
  1,283
  1,341
  1,403
  1,468
  1,536
  1,609
  1,685
  1,765
  1,850
  1,938
  2,032
  2,130
  2,234
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  701
  717
  735
  756
  778
  803
  830
  859
  891
  925
  951
  989
  1,030
  1,074
  1,120
  1,169
  1,221
  1,276
  1,334
  1,396
  1,460
  1,529
  1,600
  1,676
  1,756
  1,840
  1,928
  2,022
  2,119
  2,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  681
  701
  717
  735
  756
  778
  803
  830
  859
  891
  925
  951
  989
  1,030
  1,074
  1,120
  1,169
  1,221
  1,276
  1,334
  1,396
  1,460
  1,529
  1,600
  1,676
  1,756
  1,840
  1,928
  2,022
  2,119
  2,222
Operating income, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
EBITDA, $m
  18
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  668
  673
  689
  706
  726
  748
  772
  799
  827
  858
  891
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,243
  1,300
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,559
  1,633
  1,710
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,165
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  660
  673
  689
  706
  726
  748
  772
  799
  827
  858
  891
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,243
  1,300
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,559
  1,633
  1,710
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,165
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.032
  1.033
  1.032
  1.033
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.031
  1.033
  1.031
  1.031
  1.032
  1.032
  1.033
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
  1.032
Average production assets, $m
  221
  226
  231
  237
  244
  251
  259
  268
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  726
Working capital, $m
  143
  148
  151
  155
  160
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
Total debt, $m
  109
  106
  113
  120
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  182
  195
  210
  225
  241
  259
  277
  297
  318
  339
  363
  387
  413
  440
  469
  499
  531
  564
  599
  636
  675
  716
Total liabilities, $m
  278
  275
  282
  289
  297
  306
  316
  327
  338
  351
  364
  379
  394
  410
  428
  446
  466
  487
  508
  532
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  733
  768
  805
  844
  885
Total equity, $m
  390
  398
  407
  417
  429
  442
  456
  472
  489
  507
  526
  547
  569
  593
  618
  645
  673
  703
  735
  768
  803
  841
  880
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  668
  673
  689
  706
  726
  748
  772
  799
  827
  858
  890
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,243
  1,300
  1,359
  1,423
  1,489
  1,559
  1,633
  1,711
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.279
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.579
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591
  0.591

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  -14
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  71
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.7
  87.4
  81.3
  75.4
  69.7
  64.4
  59.3
  54.5
  50.1
  45.9
  43.1
  40.5
  37.9
  35.4
  33.1
  30.8
  28.7
  26.6
  24.7
  22.9
  21.2
  19.6
  18.2
  16.8
  15.5
  14.3
  13.2
  12.1
  11.2
  10.3

VOXX International Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a manufacturer and distributor in the automotive, premium audio, and consumer accessories industries worldwide. The company’s Automotive segment designs, manufactures, distributes, and markets rear-seat entertainment devices, satellite radio products, automotive security, remote start systems, digital TV tuners, mobile antennas, mobile multimedia devices, aftermarket/OE-styled radios, car-link smartphone telematics application, collision avoidance systems, and location-based services. Its Premium Audio segment designs, manufactures, distributes, and markets home theater systems, loudspeakers, outdoor speakers, iPod/computer speakers, business music systems, cinema speakers, flat panel speakers, Bluetooth speakers, sound bars, headphones, and digital living network alliance (DLNA) compatible devices. The company’s Consumer Accessories segment designs and markets remote controls; rechargeable battery packs; wireless and Bluetooth speakers; Singtrix karaoke products; 360 Fly Action cameras; EyeLock iris identification and security related products; personal sound amplifiers; and A/V connectivity, portable/home charging, reception, and digital consumer products. The company markets its products to power retailers, mass merchants, regional chain stores, specialty and Internet retailers, independent 12 volt retailers, distributors, new car dealers, vehicle manufacturers, vehicle and transportation equipment manufacturers, system integrators, communication network providers, smart grid manufacturers, the U.S. military, cinema operators, sporting goods equipment retailers, and cell phone carriers under the Audiovox brand name, as well as other brand names and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Audiovox Corporation and changed its name to VOXX International Corporation in December 2011. VOXX International Corporation was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VOXX International (VOXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -93
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 25.4%
Total Debt to Equity 27.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate -200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

VOXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VOXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $681 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VOXX International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of VOXX International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VOXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for VOXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VOXX International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VOXX International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VOXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VOXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for VOXX International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VOXX International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VOXX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VOXX are equal to 32.5%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VOXX International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VOXX is equal to 21.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $390 million for VOXX International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.681 million for VOXX International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VOXX International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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Financial statements of VOXX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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