Intrinsic value of Validus Holdings - VR

Previous Close

$51.88

  Intrinsic Value

$109.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+111%

Previous close

$51.88

 
Intrinsic value

$109.46

 
Up/down potential

+111%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as VR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.18
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,604
  2,772
  2,946
  3,128
  3,317
  3,515
  3,720
  3,935
  4,159
  4,392
  4,636
  4,891
  5,158
  5,437
  5,729
  6,034
  6,354
  6,688
  7,039
  7,406
  7,791
  8,194
  8,616
  9,060
  9,524
  10,011
  10,522
  11,058
  11,620
  12,210
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,986
  2,112
  2,244
  2,381
  2,524
  2,673
  2,828
  2,990
  3,159
  3,336
  3,500
  3,693
  3,894
  4,105
  4,325
  4,555
  4,797
  5,049
  5,314
  5,591
  5,881
  6,186
  6,505
  6,839
  7,190
  7,558
  7,944
  8,348
  8,772
  9,218
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,894
  1,986
  2,112
  2,244
  2,381
  2,524
  2,673
  2,828
  2,990
  3,159
  3,336
  3,500
  3,693
  3,894
  4,105
  4,325
  4,555
  4,797
  5,049
  5,314
  5,591
  5,881
  6,186
  6,505
  6,839
  7,190
  7,558
  7,944
  8,348
  8,772
  9,218
Operating income, $m
  549
  619
  660
  702
  747
  793
  842
  892
  945
  999
  1,057
  1,136
  1,199
  1,264
  1,332
  1,404
  1,479
  1,557
  1,639
  1,725
  1,815
  1,909
  2,008
  2,112
  2,220
  2,334
  2,453
  2,579
  2,710
  2,848
  2,992
EBITDA, $m
  526
  664
  706
  751
  797
  845
  896
  948
  1,003
  1,060
  1,119
  1,182
  1,247
  1,315
  1,386
  1,460
  1,538
  1,619
  1,705
  1,794
  1,888
  1,986
  2,088
  2,196
  2,309
  2,427
  2,551
  2,682
  2,818
  2,962
  3,112
Interest expense (income), $m
  55
  55
  90
  126
  164
  203
  244
  286
  331
  377
  425
  476
  528
  583
  641
  701
  764
  830
  898
  971
  1,046
  1,125
  1,208
  1,295
  1,386
  1,482
  1,582
  1,687
  1,797
  1,912
  2,034
Earnings before tax, $m
  491
  564
  569
  576
  583
  590
  598
  606
  614
  622
  631
  661
  670
  681
  692
  703
  715
  728
  741
  754
  769
  784
  800
  817
  834
  852
  872
  892
  913
  935
  959
Tax expense, $m
  -20
  152
  154
  156
  157
  159
  161
  163
  166
  168
  170
  178
  181
  184
  187
  190
  193
  196
  200
  204
  208
  212
  216
  220
  225
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
Net income, $m
  364
  411
  416
  420
  425
  431
  436
  442
  448
  454
  461
  482
  489
  497
  505
  513
  522
  531
  541
  551
  561
  572
  584
  596
  609
  622
  636
  651
  667
  683
  700

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,350
  12,113
  12,893
  13,705
  14,550
  15,430
  16,347
  17,303
  18,301
  19,342
  20,429
  21,565
  22,751
  23,991
  25,289
  26,646
  28,066
  29,552
  31,109
  32,739
  34,446
  36,236
  38,111
  40,077
  42,137
  44,298
  46,564
  48,940
  51,432
  54,047
  56,790
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,350
  12,113
  12,893
  13,705
  14,550
  15,430
  16,347
  17,303
  18,301
  19,342
  20,429
  21,565
  22,751
  23,991
  25,289
  26,646
  28,066
  29,552
  31,109
  32,739
  34,446
  36,236
  38,111
  40,077
  42,137
  44,298
  46,564
  48,940
  51,432
  54,047
  56,790
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
Average production assets, $m
  119
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  266
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  516
  542
  569
  598
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  783
  1,290
  1,806
  2,343
  2,903
  3,486
  4,093
  4,726
  5,386
  6,075
  6,795
  7,547
  8,332
  9,153
  10,012
  10,910
  11,850
  12,834
  13,865
  14,944
  16,075
  17,259
  18,500
  19,802
  21,166
  22,596
  24,096
  25,669
  27,319
  29,050
  30,866
Total liabilities, $m
  7,511
  8,019
  8,535
  9,072
  9,632
  10,215
  10,822
  11,455
  12,115
  12,804
  13,524
  14,276
  15,061
  15,882
  16,741
  17,639
  18,579
  19,563
  20,594
  21,673
  22,804
  23,988
  25,229
  26,531
  27,895
  29,325
  30,825
  32,398
  34,048
  35,779
  37,595
Total equity, $m
  3,838
  4,094
  4,358
  4,632
  4,918
  5,215
  5,525
  5,849
  6,186
  6,538
  6,905
  7,289
  7,690
  8,109
  8,548
  9,006
  9,486
  9,989
  10,515
  11,066
  11,643
  12,248
  12,882
  13,546
  14,242
  14,973
  15,739
  16,542
  17,384
  18,268
  19,195
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,349
  12,113
  12,893
  13,704
  14,550
  15,430
  16,347
  17,304
  18,301
  19,342
  20,429
  21,565
  22,751
  23,991
  25,289
  26,645
  28,065
  29,552
  31,109
  32,739
  34,447
  36,236
  38,111
  40,077
  42,137
  44,298
  46,564
  48,940
  51,432
  54,047
  56,790
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.204
  0.310
  0.410
  0.510
  0.590
  0.670
  0.740
  0.810
  0.870
  0.930
  0.980
  1.040
  1.080
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.250
  1.280
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  364
  411
  416
  420
  425
  431
  436
  442
  448
  454
  461
  482
  489
  497
  505
  513
  522
  531
  541
  551
  561
  572
  584
  596
  609
  622
  636
  651
  667
  683
  700
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  -23
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
Funds from operations, $m
  387
  457
  462
  469
  476
  483
  490
  498
  506
  515
  524
  528
  537
  548
  558
  569
  581
  593
  606
  620
  634
  649
  664
  681
  698
  716
  734
  754
  775
  797
  820
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  410
  457
  462
  469
  476
  483
  490
  498
  506
  515
  524
  528
  537
  548
  558
  569
  581
  593
  606
  620
  634
  649
  664
  681
  698
  716
  734
  754
  775
  797
  820
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -992
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
Free cash flow, $m
  -582
  424
  429
  433
  438
  443
  448
  454
  459
  465
  471
  473
  479
  487
  494
  502
  510
  519
  528
  537
  547
  557
  568
  580
  591
  604
  617
  631
  646
  661
  677
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  296
  507
  516
  537
  559
  583
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  785
  821
  859
  898
  940
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,130
  1,185
  1,241
  1,301
  1,364
  1,430
  1,500
  1,573
  1,650
  1,731
  1,816
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  16
  32
  50
  68
  88
  108
  130
  152
  176
  201
  227
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  421
  507
  516
  537
  559
  583
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  785
  821
  859
  898
  940
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,146
  1,217
  1,291
  1,369
  1,452
  1,538
  1,630
  1,725
  1,826
  1,932
  2,043
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -183
  931
  945
  971
  998
  1,026
  1,055
  1,087
  1,120
  1,154
  1,191
  1,224
  1,265
  1,308
  1,353
  1,400
  1,450
  1,503
  1,558
  1,616
  1,693
  1,774
  1,859
  1,949
  2,043
  2,142
  2,247
  2,356
  2,472
  2,593
  2,720
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -199
  -256
  -264
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -480
  -502
  -526
  -551
  -577
  -605
  -634
  -664
  -697
  -730
  -766
  -803
  -842
  -884
  -927
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  674
  681
  696
  712
  728
  745
  764
  783
  803
  824
  841
  864
  888
  914
  941
  970
  1,000
  1,032
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,226
  1,285
  1,347
  1,412
  1,481
  1,553
  1,629
  1,709
  1,793
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  647
  624
  606
  586
  564
  541
  516
  489
  461
  432
  399
  369
  338
  307
  276
  247
  218
  190
  164
  142
  121
  102
  84
  69
  55
  43
  33
  25
  19
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.2
  98.7
  98.1
  97.5
  96.7
  95.8
  94.9
  93.9
  92.8

Validus Holdings, Ltd. is a holding company. The Company operates through four segments: Validus Re, Talbot, Western World and AlphaCat. Validus Re is a Bermuda-based reinsurance segment focused treaty reinsurance. Validus Re concentrates on first-party property and other reinsurance risks. Talbot is a specialty insurance segment operating within the Lloyd's insurance market through Syndicate 1183. The Talbot segment is focused on a range of marine and energy, political lines, commercial property, financial lines, contingency, accident and health and aviation classes of business. Western World is a specialty excess and surplus lines insurance segment operating within the United States commercial market. AlphaCat is a Bermuda-based investment advisor, managing capital from third parties and the Company in insurance linked securities and other investments in the property catastrophe reinsurance space.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Validus Holdings (VR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.3
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.4%
Total Debt to Equity 20.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Operating Margin 22.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Effective Tax Rate -4.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Payout Ratio 33%

VR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2443 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Validus Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Validus Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Validus Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Validus Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Validus Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Validus Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VR are equal to 4.9%.

Life of production assets of -13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Validus Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VR is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3838 million for Validus Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.414 million for Validus Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Validus Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Validus misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Validus Specialty Appoints Cyber Team   [Feb-22-17 01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Does Validus Holdings, Ltd. (VR) Represent a Good Investment?   [Dec-04-16 02:51PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Talbot Underwriting Appoints Cyber Team   [Dec-01-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Teradyne, Inc. (TER)   [09:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Talbot Underwriting Launches Consortium for NBCR Terrorism   [Nov-03-16 06:29PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of VR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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