Intrinsic value of Validus Holdings - VR

Previous Close

$52.51

  Intrinsic Value

$80.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+54%

  Value-price divergence*

-96%

Previous close

$52.51

 
Intrinsic value

$80.84

 
Up/down potential

+54%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-96%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as VR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.18
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,492
  2,549
  2,615
  2,688
  2,770
  2,859
  2,957
  3,062
  3,175
  3,297
  3,428
  3,567
  3,715
  3,872
  4,039
  4,216
  4,404
  4,602
  4,811
  5,032
  5,266
  5,512
  5,771
  6,044
  6,332
  6,635
  6,954
  7,289
  7,642
  8,014
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,901
  1,944
  1,994
  2,049
  2,111
  2,178
  2,252
  2,331
  2,417
  2,509
  2,588
  2,693
  2,805
  2,923
  3,050
  3,183
  3,325
  3,474
  3,632
  3,799
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,563
  4,780
  5,009
  5,250
  5,503
  5,770
  6,050
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,894
  1,901
  1,944
  1,994
  2,049
  2,111
  2,178
  2,252
  2,331
  2,417
  2,509
  2,588
  2,693
  2,805
  2,923
  3,050
  3,183
  3,325
  3,474
  3,632
  3,799
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,563
  4,780
  5,009
  5,250
  5,503
  5,770
  6,050
Operating income, $m
  549
  591
  605
  621
  639
  659
  681
  705
  731
  758
  788
  840
  874
  910
  949
  990
  1,033
  1,079
  1,128
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,351
  1,414
  1,481
  1,552
  1,626
  1,704
  1,786
  1,873
  1,964
EBITDA, $m
  526
  623
  637
  654
  672
  692
  715
  739
  765
  794
  824
  857
  892
  929
  968
  1,010
  1,054
  1,101
  1,150
  1,203
  1,258
  1,316
  1,378
  1,443
  1,511
  1,583
  1,658
  1,738
  1,822
  1,910
  2,003
Interest expense (income), $m
  55
  55
  66
  78
  93
  108
  126
  145
  166
  189
  213
  240
  268
  298
  330
  364
  400
  438
  478
  521
  566
  614
  664
  717
  773
  832
  894
  959
  1,028
  1,100
  1,176
Earnings before tax, $m
  491
  536
  539
  543
  547
  551
  555
  560
  564
  570
  575
  600
  606
  613
  619
  626
  634
  641
  650
  658
  667
  677
  687
  697
  708
  720
  732
  745
  759
  773
  788
Tax expense, $m
  -20
  145
  146
  147
  148
  149
  150
  151
  152
  154
  155
  162
  164
  165
  167
  169
  171
  173
  175
  178
  180
  183
  185
  188
  191
  194
  198
  201
  205
  209
  213
Net income, $m
  364
  391
  393
  396
  399
  402
  405
  409
  412
  416
  420
  438
  443
  447
  452
  457
  463
  468
  474
  481
  487
  494
  501
  509
  517
  526
  535
  544
  554
  564
  575

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,350
  11,590
  11,857
  12,161
  12,503
  12,882
  13,298
  13,751
  14,242
  14,770
  15,337
  15,943
  16,590
  17,279
  18,011
  18,788
  19,611
  20,483
  21,405
  22,378
  23,407
  24,492
  25,636
  26,842
  28,113
  29,451
  30,860
  32,343
  33,904
  35,546
  37,273
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,350
  11,590
  11,857
  12,161
  12,503
  12,882
  13,298
  13,751
  14,242
  14,770
  15,337
  15,943
  16,590
  17,279
  18,011
  18,788
  19,611
  20,483
  21,405
  22,378
  23,407
  24,492
  25,636
  26,842
  28,113
  29,451
  30,860
  32,343
  33,904
  35,546
  37,273
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
Average production assets, $m
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  225
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  374
  393
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  783
  944
  1,120
  1,322
  1,548
  1,799
  2,075
  2,374
  2,699
  3,049
  3,424
  3,825
  4,254
  4,710
  5,194
  5,709
  6,254
  6,831
  7,441
  8,086
  8,766
  9,485
  10,242
  11,040
  11,882
  12,768
  13,700
  14,682
  15,716
  16,802
  17,946
Total liabilities, $m
  7,511
  7,673
  7,849
  8,051
  8,277
  8,528
  8,804
  9,103
  9,428
  9,778
  10,153
  10,554
  10,983
  11,439
  11,923
  12,438
  12,983
  13,560
  14,170
  14,815
  15,495
  16,214
  16,971
  17,769
  18,611
  19,497
  20,429
  21,411
  22,445
  23,531
  24,675
Total equity, $m
  3,838
  3,917
  4,008
  4,111
  4,226
  4,354
  4,495
  4,648
  4,814
  4,992
  5,184
  5,389
  5,607
  5,840
  6,088
  6,350
  6,629
  6,923
  7,235
  7,564
  7,911
  8,278
  8,665
  9,073
  9,502
  9,954
  10,431
  10,932
  11,460
  12,015
  12,598
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,349
  11,590
  11,857
  12,162
  12,503
  12,882
  13,299
  13,751
  14,242
  14,770
  15,337
  15,943
  16,590
  17,279
  18,011
  18,788
  19,612
  20,483
  21,405
  22,379
  23,406
  24,492
  25,636
  26,842
  28,113
  29,451
  30,860
  32,343
  33,905
  35,546
  37,273
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.204
  0.240
  0.280
  0.320
  0.370
  0.410
  0.460
  0.510
  0.560
  0.610
  0.660
  0.710
  0.760
  0.810
  0.850
  0.900
  0.940
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.150
  1.180
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.400
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  364
  391
  393
  396
  399
  402
  405
  409
  412
  416
  420
  438
  443
  447
  452
  457
  463
  468
  474
  481
  487
  494
  501
  509
  517
  526
  535
  544
  554
  564
  575
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  -23
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  387
  423
  426
  429
  432
  435
  439
  443
  447
  451
  456
  455
  460
  465
  471
  477
  483
  490
  497
  504
  512
  520
  528
  537
  547
  557
  567
  578
  589
  602
  614
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  410
  423
  426
  429
  432
  435
  439
  443
  447
  451
  456
  455
  460
  465
  471
  477
  483
  490
  497
  504
  512
  520
  528
  537
  547
  557
  567
  578
  589
  602
  614
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -992
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  -582
  408
  411
  413
  415
  418
  421
  424
  427
  430
  434
  433
  436
  441
  445
  450
  455
  460
  465
  471
  477
  484
  491
  498
  505
  513
  521
  530
  539
  549
  559
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  296
  161
  176
  202
  226
  251
  275
  300
  325
  350
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  514
  545
  577
  610
  645
  681
  718
  757
  798
  841
  886
  933
  982
  1,033
  1,087
  1,143
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  9
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  421
  161
  176
  202
  226
  251
  275
  300
  325
  350
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  514
  545
  577
  610
  645
  681
  718
  757
  798
  841
  886
  933
  982
  1,033
  1,087
  1,152
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -183
  568
  587
  615
  642
  669
  696
  724
  752
  780
  809
  834
  865
  897
  930
  964
  1,000
  1,037
  1,076
  1,116
  1,158
  1,202
  1,248
  1,296
  1,346
  1,399
  1,454
  1,512
  1,572
  1,636
  1,711
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -199
  -79
  -90
  -103
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -153
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -263
  -278
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -348
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -452
  -476
  -501
  -528
  -555
  -584
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  489
  497
  512
  526
  541
  556
  571
  586
  602
  618
  629
  646
  664
  682
  702
  722
  742
  764
  787
  811
  835
  861
  888
  917
  947
  978
  1,010
  1,045
  1,081
  1,127
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  469
  455
  445
  433
  419
  403
  386
  366
  346
  324
  299
  276
  252
  229
  206
  183
  162
  141
  121
  103
  86
  71
  58
  47
  37
  29
  22
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9

Validus Holdings, Ltd. provides reinsurance coverage, insurance coverage, and insurance linked securities management services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Validus Re, Talbot, Western World, and AlphaCat. The Validus Re segment offers treaty reinsurance products, such as property catastrophe, property per risk, and property pro rata reinsurance; marine reinsurance; and other lines of business, including aerospace and aviation, accident and health, agriculture, casualty, composite, contingency, crisis management, financial, life, technical, terrorism, trade credit, and workersÂ’ compensation lines. The Talbot segment underwrites property, marine, specialty, political, aviation, accident and health, and contingency; and bankers blanket bond, commercial crime, computer crime, cyber- crime, professional indemnity, and directorsÂ’ and officersÂ’ coverage for various types of financial institutions and related companies, as well as commercial clients. The Western World segment insures small to medium size commercial and institutional risks covering general, professional, and product liability, as well as miscellaneous malpractice and property classes. The AlphaCat segment provides investment advising services; manages capital from third parties and its insurance linked securities; and offers property catastrophe and specialty reinsurance investments. Validus Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Validus Holdings (VR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.4%
Total Debt to Equity 20.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Operating Margin 22.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Effective Tax Rate -4.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Payout Ratio 33%

VR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2443 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Validus Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Validus Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Validus Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Validus Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Validus Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Validus Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VR are equal to 4.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Validus Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VR is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3838 million for Validus Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.438 million for Validus Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Validus Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Validus misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Validus Specialty Appoints Cyber Team   [Feb-22-17 01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Does Validus Holdings, Ltd. (VR) Represent a Good Investment?   [Dec-04-16 02:51PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Talbot Underwriting Appoints Cyber Team   [Dec-01-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Teradyne, Inc. (TER)   [09:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Talbot Underwriting Launches Consortium for NBCR Terrorism   [Nov-03-16 06:29PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of VR Financial statements of VR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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