Intrinsic value of Varonis Systems - VRNS

Previous Close

$44.40

  Intrinsic Value

$12.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$44.40

 
Intrinsic value

$12.55

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.13
  28.20
  25.88
  23.79
  21.91
  20.22
  18.70
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
Revenue, $m
  164
  210
  265
  328
  399
  480
  570
  669
  776
  893
  1,018
  1,151
  1,292
  1,441
  1,599
  1,763
  1,936
  2,116
  2,303
  2,499
  2,702
  2,913
  3,133
  3,361
  3,598
  3,845
  4,101
  4,368
  4,645
  4,933
  5,234
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  194
  244
  302
  368
  442
  525
  616
  715
  822
  937
  1,060
  1,190
  1,328
  1,472
  1,624
  1,783
  1,949
  2,121
  2,301
  2,488
  2,683
  2,885
  3,096
  3,314
  3,541
  3,777
  4,023
  4,278
  4,544
  4,821
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  180
  225
  276
  334
  401
  476
  560
  652
  752
  859
  975
  1,099
  1,230
  1,369
  1,514
  1,667
  1,828
  1,995
  2,168
  2,349
  2,537
  2,733
  2,937
  3,149
  3,368
  3,597
  3,834
  4,081
  4,338
  4,605
  4,884
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -14
  -11
  -6
  -2
  4
  10
  17
  25
  33
  42
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  149
  164
  180
  196
  213
  230
  248
  267
  287
  307
  328
  351
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -12
  -8
  -3
  3
  9
  17
  25
  33
  43
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  130
  145
  161
  177
  194
  212
  230
  250
  270
  290
  312
  335
  358
  383
  408
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -14
  -10
  -6
  -2
  2
  7
  13
  20
  26
  34
  42
  50
  59
  69
  78
  89
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  190
  205
  220
  237
  253
  271
  290
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
Net income, $m
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -6
  -2
  2
  5
  10
  14
  19
  25
  30
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  182
  87
  110
  136
  166
  199
  236
  277
  322
  370
  422
  477
  536
  598
  663
  731
  803
  877
  955
  1,036
  1,120
  1,208
  1,299
  1,393
  1,492
  1,594
  1,700
  1,811
  1,926
  2,045
  2,170
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  68
  87
  110
  136
  166
  199
  236
  277
  322
  370
  422
  477
  536
  598
  663
  731
  803
  877
  955
  1,036
  1,120
  1,208
  1,299
  1,393
  1,492
  1,594
  1,700
  1,811
  1,926
  2,045
  2,170
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.412
  2.414
  2.409
  2.412
  2.404
  2.412
  2.415
  2.415
  2.410
  2.414
  2.412
  2.413
  2.410
  2.410
  2.412
  2.412
  2.411
  2.413
  2.412
  2.412
  2.413
  2.411
  2.412
  2.413
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  116
  127
  137
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  211
  226
  240
  255
  271
  288
Working capital, $m
  83
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -75
  -91
  -108
  -126
  -147
  -169
  -192
  -218
  -244
  -272
  -302
  -333
  -366
  -400
  -435
  -472
  -511
  -551
  -592
  -635
  -680
  -727
  -775
  -825
  -878
  -932
  -989
Total debt, $m
  0
  -21
  0
  23
  50
  80
  114
  151
  191
  234
  281
  330
  383
  439
  497
  559
  623
  690
  760
  833
  909
  988
  1,070
  1,155
  1,244
  1,336
  1,431
  1,531
  1,634
  1,742
  1,854
Total liabilities, $m
  99
  78
  99
  122
  149
  179
  213
  250
  290
  333
  380
  429
  482
  538
  596
  658
  722
  789
  859
  932
  1,008
  1,087
  1,169
  1,254
  1,343
  1,435
  1,530
  1,630
  1,733
  1,841
  1,953
Total equity, $m
  83
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  95
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  182
  87
  110
  136
  166
  199
  237
  278
  322
  370
  422
  477
  536
  598
  662
  731
  802
  877
  954
  1,036
  1,120
  1,208
  1,299
  1,393
  1,492
  1,594
  1,700
  1,811
  1,926
  2,046
  2,170
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.360
  -0.020
  1.710
  3.020
  4.030
  4.810
  5.430
  5.920
  6.330
  6.650
  6.930
  7.150
  7.340
  7.510
  7.650
  7.770
  7.870
  7.960
  8.040
  8.120
  8.180
  8.240
  8.290
  8.340
  8.380
  8.420
  8.450
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.456
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -6
  -2
  2
  5
  10
  14
  19
  25
  30
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  -12
  -7
  -3
  2
  7
  12
  17
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  77
  86
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  236
  252
  269
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  -3
  3
  9
  16
  22
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  87
  97
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -21
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -7
  -2
  3
  8
  13
  18
  24
  30
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -21
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  54
  12
  9
  5
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  33
  32
  32
  32
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  52
  61
  70
  80
  89
  99
  110
  120
  131
  143
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  217
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  329
  347
  367
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -54
  -12
  -9
  -5
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  86
  18
  26
  35
  42
  48
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  147
  159
  170
  183
  196
  209
  222
  237
  251
  267
  283
  300
  317
  336
  355
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  82
  17
  23
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  44
  45
  44
  43
  42
  40
  37
  35
  31
  28
  25
  22
  18
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.9
  40.5
  39.0
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6
  38.6

Varonis Systems, Inc. provides a solutions that protect data from insider threats and cyberattacks. The Company's products include DatAdvantage, DataPrivilege, Interface Data Unit Classification Framework, Data Transport Engine, DatAnywhere and DatAnswers. Its platform allows enterprises to analyze, secure, manage and migrate volumes of unstructured data. It specializes in file and e-mail systems that store valuable spreadsheets, word processing documents, presentations, audio and video files, e-mails and text. Its Metadata Framework is a technology platform that extracts metadata from an enterprise's information technology (IT) infrastructure. Data often includes an enterprise's financial information, intellectual property, and confidential employee, customer or patient records. IT and business personnel deploy its software for a range of use cases, including data security, governance and compliance, user behavior analytics, archiving, search, and file synchronization and sharing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Varonis Systems (VRNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -66.2
Price to Sales 7.3
Price to Book 14.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 170.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 396.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Return On Total Capital -21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Return On Equity -21.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.5%
EBITDA Margin -9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Operating Margin -9.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.2%
Net Profit Margin -11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Effective Tax Rate -5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $164 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Varonis Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Varonis Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VRNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Varonis Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Varonis Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $30 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Varonis Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Varonis Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRNS are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Varonis Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRNS is equal to -18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $83 million for Varonis Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.477 million for Varonis Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Varonis Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Media Alert: Join Varonis at NetApp Insight in Las Vegas   [Sep-27-17 09:27AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Is Varonis Systems Incs (VRNS) Share Price Doing?   [Sep-11-17 03:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Varonis reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 08:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mutual Funds Tilting Toward Tech, Health Care, Foreign Stocks   [Jul-07-17 02:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] U.K. Information Commissioner on GDPR: "Go Back to the Basics"   [May-25-17 11:14AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Harry Boxer: Four stocks locked in a strong uptrend   [May-23-17 01:19PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Why Shares of Varonis Systems Rose on Friday   [May-05-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Varonis reports 1Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis to Present at May Investor Conferences   [May-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ShoreGroup Announces Partnership with Varonis Systems   [Apr-18-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jim OBoyle Named 2017 CRN Channel Chief   [Mar-09-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Feb-21-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-05-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Varonis Systems Inc (VRNS) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-04-16 02:58PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of VRNS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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