Intrinsic value of Varonis Systems - VRNS

Previous Close

$38.00

  Intrinsic Value

$21.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

  Value-price divergence*

+285%

Previous close

$38.00

 
Intrinsic value

$21.07

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+285%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.13
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  164
  219
  285
  365
  458
  566
  689
  828
  981
  1,149
  1,333
  1,531
  1,744
  1,970
  2,210
  2,464
  2,731
  3,011
  3,303
  3,609
  3,927
  4,259
  4,603
  4,962
  5,334
  5,722
  6,124
  6,542
  6,977
  7,429
  7,900
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  201
  263
  336
  422
  522
  635
  762
  903
  1,059
  1,228
  1,410
  1,606
  1,815
  2,036
  2,269
  2,515
  2,773
  3,042
  3,324
  3,617
  3,922
  4,240
  4,570
  4,913
  5,270
  5,640
  6,025
  6,426
  6,842
  7,275
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  180
  232
  295
  368
  455
  556
  670
  798
  940
  1,096
  1,266
  1,449
  1,646
  1,856
  2,078
  2,312
  2,560
  2,819
  3,089
  3,372
  3,666
  3,972
  4,292
  4,623
  4,967
  5,326
  5,697
  6,083
  6,486
  6,903
  7,338
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -3
  3
  11
  20
  30
  41
  53
  67
  82
  97
  114
  132
  151
  171
  192
  214
  237
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
  396
  427
  458
  491
  526
  561
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -12
  -7
  -1
  6
  14
  23
  34
  46
  60
  74
  90
  107
  125
  144
  165
  186
  209
  232
  257
  283
  309
  337
  366
  397
  428
  460
  494
  530
  566
  605
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -5
  0
  6
  12
  20
  29
  38
  49
  60
  72
  85
  98
  113
  128
  144
  160
  178
  196
  215
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  345
  370
  396
  423
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  30
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
Net income, $m
  -18
  -13
  -10
  -5
  0
  4
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  52
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  252
  270
  289
  309

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  182
  132
  172
  220
  277
  342
  416
  499
  592
  694
  804
  924
  1,052
  1,189
  1,334
  1,487
  1,648
  1,817
  1,994
  2,178
  2,370
  2,570
  2,778
  2,995
  3,219
  3,453
  3,696
  3,948
  4,211
  4,483
  4,767
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  68
  132
  172
  220
  277
  342
  416
  499
  592
  694
  804
  924
  1,052
  1,189
  1,334
  1,487
  1,648
  1,817
  1,994
  2,178
  2,370
  2,570
  2,778
  2,995
  3,219
  3,453
  3,696
  3,948
  4,211
  4,483
  4,767
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.412
  1.659
  1.657
  1.659
  1.653
  1.655
  1.656
  1.659
  1.657
  1.656
  1.658
  1.657
  1.658
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.656
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
  1.657
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  38
  46
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  108
  122
  136
  150
  166
  182
  198
  216
  234
  253
  273
  293
  315
  337
  360
  384
  409
  434
Working capital, $m
  83
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -98
  -115
  -133
  -153
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -246
  -273
  -301
  -330
  -361
  -393
  -426
  -460
  -496
  -533
  -572
  -612
  -654
  -698
  -743
  -790
Total debt, $m
  0
  20
  56
  99
  150
  209
  275
  350
  434
  525
  625
  733
  848
  971
  1,102
  1,239
  1,384
  1,536
  1,695
  1,861
  2,034
  2,214
  2,401
  2,596
  2,798
  3,009
  3,227
  3,454
  3,690
  3,936
  4,192
Total liabilities, $m
  99
  119
  155
  198
  249
  308
  374
  449
  533
  624
  724
  832
  947
  1,070
  1,201
  1,338
  1,483
  1,635
  1,794
  1,960
  2,133
  2,313
  2,500
  2,695
  2,897
  3,108
  3,326
  3,553
  3,789
  4,035
  4,291
Total equity, $m
  83
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  42
  50
  59
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  149
  165
  182
  199
  218
  237
  257
  278
  299
  322
  345
  370
  395
  421
  448
  477
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  182
  132
  172
  220
  277
  342
  416
  499
  592
  693
  804
  924
  1,052
  1,189
  1,334
  1,487
  1,648
  1,817
  1,993
  2,178
  2,370
  2,570
  2,778
  2,994
  3,219
  3,453
  3,696
  3,948
  4,210
  4,483
  4,768
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.500
  3.250
  4.500
  5.420
  6.100
  6.620
  7.020
  7.330
  7.570
  7.770
  7.930
  8.060
  8.170
  8.260
  8.330
  8.400
  8.460
  8.500
  8.550
  8.580
  8.610
  8.640
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.456
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -13
  -10
  -5
  0
  4
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  52
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  252
  270
  289
  309
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  -12
  -8
  -3
  2
  7
  13
  19
  26
  34
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  150
  165
  180
  197
  213
  231
  249
  268
  288
  309
  330
  353
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  -7
  -1
  5
  11
  18
  25
  33
  42
  51
  61
  72
  83
  95
  108
  121
  135
  149
  165
  180
  196
  213
  231
  249
  268
  288
  309
  330
  352
  375
  400
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -11
  -6
  -1
  4
  10
  15
  22
  29
  36
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  189
  204
  221
  237
  255
  273
  292
  312
  333
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  20
  36
  43
  51
  59
  67
  75
  83
  92
  100
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  27
  14
  10
  6
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  67
  75
  83
  92
  100
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  36
  44
  52
  61
  71
  82
  97
  112
  128
  144
  161
  179
  196
  214
  233
  252
  271
  291
  311
  332
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  474
  500
  528
  558
  588
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -27
  -14
  -10
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  92
  30
  42
  55
  64
  75
  88
  103
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  200
  218
  236
  254
  273
  293
  313
  334
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  530
  560
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  88
  27
  36
  45
  50
  54
  60
  64
  68
  70
  71
  71
  69
  67
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  40
  35
  29
  25
  20
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  45.3
  42.8
  41.6
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2
  41.2

Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software solutions that protect data from insider threats and cyberattacks worldwide. The company, through its software platform, allows organizations to analyze, secure, manage, and migrate volumes of unstructured data. It specializes in file and email systems that store spreadsheets, word processing documents, presentations, audio and video files, emails, and text. The company serves IT and business personnel who deploy its software for various uses, including data security, governance and compliance, user behavior analytics, archiving, search, and file synchronization and sharing. Varonis Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Varonis Systems (VRNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -56.6
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 12.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 145.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 339.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Return On Total Capital -21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Return On Equity -21.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.5%
EBITDA Margin -9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Operating Margin -9.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.2%
Net Profit Margin -11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Effective Tax Rate -5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $164 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Varonis Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Varonis Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VRNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Varonis Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Varonis Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $30 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Varonis Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Varonis Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRNS are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Varonis Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRNS is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $83 million for Varonis Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.503 million for Varonis Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Varonis Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Varonis reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 08:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mutual Funds Tilting Toward Tech, Health Care, Foreign Stocks   [Jul-07-17 02:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] U.K. Information Commissioner on GDPR: "Go Back to the Basics"   [May-25-17 11:14AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Harry Boxer: Four stocks locked in a strong uptrend   [May-23-17 01:19PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Why Shares of Varonis Systems Rose on Friday   [May-05-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Varonis reports 1Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis to Present at May Investor Conferences   [May-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ShoreGroup Announces Partnership with Varonis Systems   [Apr-18-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jim OBoyle Named 2017 CRN Channel Chief   [Mar-09-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Feb-21-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-05-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Varonis Systems Inc (VRNS) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-04-16 02:58PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of VRNS Financial statements of VRNS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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