Intrinsic value of Varonis Systems - VRNS

Previous Close

$54.25

  Intrinsic Value

$17.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$54.25

 
Intrinsic value

$17.09

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.13
  31.70
  29.03
  26.63
  24.46
  22.52
  20.77
  19.19
  17.77
  16.49
  15.34
  14.31
  13.38
  12.54
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
Revenue, $m
  164
  216
  279
  353
  439
  538
  650
  775
  912
  1,063
  1,226
  1,401
  1,589
  1,788
  1,999
  2,221
  2,454
  2,698
  2,953
  3,219
  3,496
  3,784
  4,084
  4,395
  4,719
  5,056
  5,405
  5,769
  6,147
  6,540
  6,949
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  199
  257
  325
  405
  496
  599
  713
  840
  979
  1,129
  1,290
  1,463
  1,647
  1,841
  2,045
  2,260
  2,485
  2,720
  2,964
  3,220
  3,485
  3,761
  4,048
  4,346
  4,656
  4,978
  5,313
  5,661
  6,023
  6,400
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  180
  230
  289
  357
  438
  530
  634
  749
  877
  1,016
  1,167
  1,329
  1,503
  1,688
  1,883
  2,088
  2,305
  2,531
  2,767
  3,012
  3,269
  3,535
  3,813
  4,101
  4,400
  4,712
  5,035
  5,371
  5,721
  6,084
  6,463
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -14
  -10
  -4
  2
  9
  17
  26
  36
  46
  58
  71
  85
  100
  115
  132
  149
  167
  186
  206
  227
  249
  271
  294
  319
  344
  370
  397
  426
  455
  486
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -11
  -6
  -1
  6
  14
  24
  34
  46
  58
  72
  87
  103
  120
  137
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  265
  290
  316
  343
  370
  399
  429
  461
  493
  527
  563
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -14
  -9
  -5
  0
  6
  13
  21
  29
  38
  48
  59
  70
  83
  96
  109
  124
  139
  155
  171
  188
  206
  225
  244
  265
  286
  307
  330
  354
  378
  404
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  33
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
Net income, $m
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -5
  0
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  182
  90
  116
  146
  182
  223
  269
  321
  378
  441
  508
  581
  659
  741
  829
  921
  1,017
  1,118
  1,224
  1,334
  1,449
  1,569
  1,693
  1,822
  1,957
  2,096
  2,241
  2,392
  2,548
  2,711
  2,881
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  68
  90
  116
  146
  182
  223
  269
  321
  378
  441
  508
  581
  659
  741
  829
  921
  1,017
  1,118
  1,224
  1,334
  1,449
  1,569
  1,693
  1,822
  1,957
  2,096
  2,241
  2,392
  2,548
  2,711
  2,881
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.412
  2.400
  2.405
  2.418
  2.412
  2.413
  2.416
  2.414
  2.413
  2.410
  2.413
  2.411
  2.411
  2.413
  2.411
  2.412
  2.413
  2.413
  2.413
  2.413
  2.413
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.411
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
  2.412
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  225
  242
  260
  278
  297
  317
  338
  360
  382
Working capital, $m
  83
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -83
  -102
  -123
  -146
  -172
  -201
  -232
  -265
  -300
  -338
  -378
  -420
  -464
  -510
  -558
  -608
  -661
  -715
  -772
  -831
  -892
  -956
  -1,022
  -1,090
  -1,162
  -1,236
  -1,313
Total debt, $m
  0
  -18
  5
  33
  65
  102
  143
  190
  241
  298
  358
  424
  494
  568
  647
  730
  817
  908
  1,003
  1,102
  1,205
  1,313
  1,425
  1,541
  1,662
  1,787
  1,918
  2,054
  2,195
  2,341
  2,494
Total liabilities, $m
  99
  81
  104
  132
  164
  201
  242
  289
  340
  397
  457
  523
  593
  667
  746
  829
  916
  1,007
  1,102
  1,201
  1,304
  1,412
  1,524
  1,640
  1,761
  1,886
  2,017
  2,153
  2,294
  2,440
  2,593
Total equity, $m
  83
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  122
  133
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  182
  90
  116
  147
  182
  223
  269
  321
  378
  441
  508
  581
  659
  741
  829
  921
  1,018
  1,119
  1,224
  1,334
  1,449
  1,569
  1,693
  1,822
  1,957
  2,096
  2,241
  2,392
  2,549
  2,711
  2,881
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.060
  0.430
  2.230
  3.560
  4.560
  5.330
  5.920
  6.380
  6.750
  7.050
  7.300
  7.500
  7.660
  7.810
  7.920
  8.030
  8.110
  8.190
  8.260
  8.320
  8.370
  8.420
  8.460
  8.490
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.456
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -5
  0
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  -11
  -6
  -1
  5
  11
  17
  23
  31
  39
  49
  58
  69
  80
  92
  104
  117
  131
  145
  160
  176
  192
  209
  227
  245
  264
  284
  304
  326
  348
  371
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  -1
  6
  13
  21
  29
  38
  47
  57
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  132
  146
  161
  177
  194
  211
  228
  247
  266
  286
  306
  328
  350
  373
  397
  423
  449
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -6
  0
  6
  13
  19
  26
  33
  41
  50
  59
  68
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  150
  164
  178
  192
  208
  224
  240
  257
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -18
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  54
  11
  8
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  36
  34
  36
  35
  37
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  29
  35
  42
  48
  56
  67
  80
  92
  106
  120
  134
  148
  164
  179
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  340
  361
  383
  406
  429
  454
  480
  507
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -54
  -11
  -8
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  89
  24
  34
  45
  52
  63
  74
  87
  99
  113
  127
  141
  155
  170
  186
  201
  218
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
  327
  348
  369
  391
  414
  438
  464
  490
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  86
  22
  29
  37
  40
  46
  50
  54
  57
  59
  60
  60
  59
  57
  55
  51
  47
  43
  39
  34
  30
  25
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  44.3
  41.6
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7
  40.7

Varonis Systems, Inc. provides a solutions that protect data from insider threats and cyberattacks. The Company's products include DatAdvantage, DataPrivilege, Interface Data Unit Classification Framework, Data Transport Engine, DatAnywhere and DatAnswers. Its platform allows enterprises to analyze, secure, manage and migrate volumes of unstructured data. It specializes in file and e-mail systems that store valuable spreadsheets, word processing documents, presentations, audio and video files, e-mails and text. Its Metadata Framework is a technology platform that extracts metadata from an enterprise's information technology (IT) infrastructure. Data often includes an enterprise's financial information, intellectual property, and confidential employee, customer or patient records. IT and business personnel deploy its software for a range of use cases, including data security, governance and compliance, user behavior analytics, archiving, search, and file synchronization and sharing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Varonis Systems (VRNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -80.8
Price to Sales 8.9
Price to Book 17.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 207.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 485
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Return On Total Capital -21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Return On Equity -21.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.5%
EBITDA Margin -9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Operating Margin -9.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.2%
Net Profit Margin -11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Effective Tax Rate -5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $164 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Varonis Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Varonis Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VRNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Varonis Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Varonis Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $30 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Varonis Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Varonis Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRNS are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Varonis Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRNS is equal to -18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $83 million for Varonis Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.6 million for Varonis Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Varonis Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Varonis to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-11-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Buy Varonis Systems Inc (NASDAQ:VRNS)?   [Dec-22-17 04:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cybersecurity Survey Reveals Significant GDPR Readiness Gap   [Dec-06-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at December Investor Conferences   [Nov-28-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Some Secure Names in Cybersecurity   [Nov-20-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Varonis to Present at November Investor Conferences   [Nov-03-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis Announces Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Media Alert: Join Varonis at NetApp Insight in Las Vegas   [Sep-27-17 09:27AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Is Varonis Systems Incs (VRNS) Share Price Doing?   [Sep-11-17 03:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Varonis reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 08:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mutual Funds Tilting Toward Tech, Health Care, Foreign Stocks   [Jul-07-17 02:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] U.K. Information Commissioner on GDPR: "Go Back to the Basics"   [May-25-17 11:14AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Harry Boxer: Four stocks locked in a strong uptrend   [May-23-17 01:19PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Why Shares of Varonis Systems Rose on Friday   [May-05-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Varonis reports 1Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Varonis to Present at May Investor Conferences   [May-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ShoreGroup Announces Partnership with Varonis Systems   [Apr-18-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jim OBoyle Named 2017 CRN Channel Chief   [Mar-09-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Varonis to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Feb-21-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of VRNS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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