Intrinsic value of Verint Systems - VRNT

Previous Close

$39.55

  Intrinsic Value

$82.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+108%

Previous close

$39.55

 
Intrinsic value

$82.34

 
Up/down potential

+108%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.02
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,062
  1,152
  1,246
  1,344
  1,445
  1,551
  1,660
  1,774
  1,893
  2,016
  2,144
  2,277
  2,416
  2,561
  2,712
  2,869
  3,033
  3,204
  3,383
  3,570
  3,766
  3,970
  4,184
  4,407
  4,641
  4,886
  5,143
  5,412
  5,693
  5,988
  6,298
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  277
  290
  302
  316
  329
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  298
  316
  335
  355
  376
  397
  419
  443
  467
  493
  520
  548
  577
  607
  640
  673
  708
  745
  784
  824
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  820
  841
  862
  883
  905
  928
  951
  975
  999
  1,024
  1,050
  1,076
  1,103
  1,130
  1,159
  1,188
  1,217
  1,248
  1,279
  1,311
  1,344
  1,377
  1,412
  1,447
  1,483
  1,520
  1,558
  1,597
  1,637
  1,678
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,045
  1,097
  1,131
  1,164
  1,199
  1,234
  1,272
  1,310
  1,349
  1,389
  1,431
  1,348
  1,392
  1,438
  1,485
  1,535
  1,585
  1,636
  1,691
  1,746
  1,804
  1,864
  1,925
  1,989
  2,054
  2,123
  2,193
  2,266
  2,342
  2,421
  2,502
Operating income, $m
  17
  55
  116
  180
  247
  316
  389
  465
  544
  626
  713
  930
  1,024
  1,123
  1,226
  1,335
  1,449
  1,568
  1,693
  1,824
  1,962
  2,107
  2,259
  2,419
  2,587
  2,764
  2,950
  3,145
  3,351
  3,568
  3,795
EBITDA, $m
  131
  207
  270
  336
  405
  477
  552
  631
  712
  798
  887
  980
  1,078
  1,180
  1,287
  1,399
  1,516
  1,639
  1,768
  1,904
  2,046
  2,195
  2,352
  2,517
  2,691
  2,873
  3,064
  3,266
  3,478
  3,701
  3,936
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
Earnings before tax, $m
  -23
  29
  86
  146
  208
  273
  341
  412
  486
  563
  644
  855
  944
  1,037
  1,134
  1,236
  1,342
  1,454
  1,572
  1,695
  1,824
  1,961
  2,104
  2,254
  2,412
  2,579
  2,754
  2,938
  3,132
  3,336
  3,550
Tax expense, $m
  3
  8
  23
  39
  56
  74
  92
  111
  131
  152
  174
  231
  255
  280
  306
  334
  362
  393
  424
  458
  493
  529
  568
  609
  651
  696
  743
  793
  846
  901
  959
Net income, $m
  -29
  21
  63
  106
  152
  199
  249
  301
  355
  411
  470
  624
  689
  757
  828
  902
  980
  1,062
  1,147
  1,237
  1,332
  1,431
  1,536
  1,645
  1,761
  1,882
  2,010
  2,145
  2,286
  2,435
  2,592

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  311
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,363
  2,224
  2,406
  2,594
  2,790
  2,994
  3,205
  3,425
  3,654
  3,892
  4,139
  4,396
  4,664
  4,944
  5,235
  5,539
  5,855
  6,186
  6,532
  6,892
  7,270
  7,664
  8,077
  8,508
  8,960
  9,433
  9,928
  10,447
  10,991
  11,561
  12,158
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,052
  2,224
  2,406
  2,594
  2,790
  2,994
  3,205
  3,425
  3,654
  3,892
  4,139
  4,396
  4,664
  4,944
  5,235
  5,539
  5,855
  6,186
  6,532
  6,892
  7,270
  7,664
  8,077
  8,508
  8,960
  9,433
  9,928
  10,447
  10,991
  11,561
  12,158
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
Average production assets, $m
  326
  353
  381
  411
  442
  475
  508
  543
  579
  617
  656
  697
  739
  784
  830
  878
  928
  981
  1,035
  1,093
  1,152
  1,215
  1,280
  1,349
  1,420
  1,495
  1,574
  1,656
  1,742
  1,832
  1,927
Working capital, $m
  210
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -487
  -512
  -539
  -567
Total debt, $m
  749
  857
  976
  1,100
  1,229
  1,363
  1,502
  1,647
  1,797
  1,954
  2,116
  2,286
  2,462
  2,646
  2,838
  3,037
  3,246
  3,463
  3,691
  3,928
  4,176
  4,436
  4,707
  4,991
  5,289
  5,600
  5,926
  6,267
  6,625
  7,000
  7,393
Total liabilities, $m
  1,356
  1,464
  1,583
  1,707
  1,836
  1,970
  2,109
  2,254
  2,404
  2,561
  2,723
  2,893
  3,069
  3,253
  3,445
  3,644
  3,853
  4,070
  4,298
  4,535
  4,783
  5,043
  5,314
  5,598
  5,896
  6,207
  6,533
  6,874
  7,232
  7,607
  8,000
Total equity, $m
  1,007
  761
  823
  887
  954
  1,024
  1,096
  1,171
  1,250
  1,331
  1,415
  1,504
  1,595
  1,691
  1,790
  1,894
  2,003
  2,116
  2,234
  2,357
  2,486
  2,621
  2,762
  2,910
  3,064
  3,226
  3,396
  3,573
  3,759
  3,954
  4,158
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,363
  2,225
  2,406
  2,594
  2,790
  2,994
  3,205
  3,425
  3,654
  3,892
  4,138
  4,397
  4,664
  4,944
  5,235
  5,538
  5,856
  6,186
  6,532
  6,892
  7,269
  7,664
  8,076
  8,508
  8,960
  9,433
  9,929
  10,447
  10,991
  11,561
  12,158
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.744
  1.130
  1.190
  1.240
  1.290
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.339
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  21
  63
  106
  152
  199
  249
  301
  355
  411
  470
  624
  689
  757
  828
  902
  980
  1,062
  1,147
  1,237
  1,332
  1,431
  1,536
  1,645
  1,761
  1,882
  2,010
  2,145
  2,286
  2,435
  2,592
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  152
  154
  157
  159
  161
  164
  166
  169
  172
  174
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Funds from operations, $m
  187
  173
  217
  263
  311
  361
  413
  467
  524
  583
  645
  675
  743
  814
  888
  966
  1,048
  1,133
  1,223
  1,317
  1,416
  1,520
  1,629
  1,744
  1,865
  1,991
  2,125
  2,265
  2,413
  2,569
  2,732
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  172
  181
  226
  272
  320
  370
  422
  477
  534
  594
  656
  687
  756
  827
  902
  980
  1,062
  1,148
  1,239
  1,334
  1,434
  1,538
  1,648
  1,764
  1,886
  2,014
  2,148
  2,290
  2,439
  2,595
  2,760
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -156
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  131
  171
  214
  259
  305
  354
  405
  458
  514
  572
  599
  662
  729
  798
  871
  948
  1,028
  1,113
  1,201
  1,294
  1,392
  1,494
  1,602
  1,716
  1,835
  1,960
  2,093
  2,232
  2,378
  2,532
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  113
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  208
  218
  227
  237
  248
  260
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -47
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -57
  152
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  208
  218
  227
  237
  248
  260
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -45
  282
  290
  338
  388
  439
  493
  550
  609
  670
  735
  768
  839
  913
  990
  1,071
  1,156
  1,246
  1,340
  1,439
  1,542
  1,651
  1,766
  1,886
  2,013
  2,146
  2,286
  2,434
  2,589
  2,753
  2,925
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  53
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  528
  228
  274
  321
  370
  421
  475
  531
  589
  650
  680
  747
  817
  890
  967
  1,048
  1,133
  1,222
  1,315
  1,413
  1,516
  1,625
  1,739
  1,858
  1,984
  2,117
  2,256
  2,403
  2,558
  2,721
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  502
  205
  231
  253
  271
  284
  294
  298
  299
  295
  273
  264
  251
  235
  217
  197
  176
  155
  134
  114
  96
  79
  63
  50
  38
  29
  21
  15
  11
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

Verint Systems Inc. offers Actionable Intelligence solutions. The Company delivers its Actionable Intelligence solutions through two operating segments: Customer Engagement Solutions and Cyber Intelligence Solutions. It is a provider of customer engagement software and services that can be deployed on-premises or in the cloud. Its Customer Engagement vision is powered by its Actionable Intelligence platform to generate intelligence from structured and unstructured data. It offers solutions that help organizations empower their customers and employees through intelligence that can be shared enterprise-wide. It is a provider of security and intelligence data mining software. Its solutions are used for a range of applications, including predictive intelligence, advanced and complex investigations, security threat analysis, and electronic data and physical assets protection, as well as for generating legal evidence and preventing criminal activity and terrorism.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Verint Systems (VRNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -85.1
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 62
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 73.9%
Total Debt to Equity 74.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital -1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -2.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Net Profit Margin -2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate -13%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1062 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Verint Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Verint Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for VRNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Verint Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Verint Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $800 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Verint Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Verint Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRNT are equal to 30.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Verint Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRNT is equal to -9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1007 million for Verint Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.799 million for Verint Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Verint Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Verint tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Dec-06-17 04:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Verint Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Hottest Tech Sector In 2018   [Dec-04-17 07:30PM  Oilprice.com]
▶ Verint Systems Getting Closer To Key Technical Benchmark   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 4 Ultra-Cheap PEG Stocks for Value Investors   [Oct-04-17 09:00AM  Zacks]
▶ Verint Bounces Back   [07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Verint reports 2Q loss   [Sep-06-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Verint Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Verint Systems Inc. (VRNT) Stock Can Secure Your Portfolio   [Aug-11-17 10:03AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Why Is the Software Market So Hot Right Now?   [Jul-14-17 01:45PM  Zacks]
Financial statements of VRNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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