Intrinsic value of Virtus Investment Partners - VRTS

Previous Close

$117.15

  Intrinsic Value

$58.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-50%

  Value-price divergence*

-97%

Previous close

$117.15

 
Intrinsic value

$58.13

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-97%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as VRTS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.45
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  323
  329
  337
  346
  355
  366
  378
  391
  405
  420
  436
  453
  472
  491
  512
  534
  557
  582
  608
  636
  665
  696
  729
  763
  799
  837
  877
  919
  964
  1,010
  1,060
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  167
  171
  176
  180
  186
  192
  198
  205
  213
  221
  229
  239
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
Total operating expenses, $m
  272
  281
  288
  296
  303
  312
  321
  330
  340
  352
  363
  375
  388
  401
  416
  431
  447
  464
  481
  499
  519
  538
  560
  582
  605
  629
  655
  681
  710
  738
  769
Operating income, $m
  51
  48
  49
  51
  52
  55
  57
  61
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  255
  272
  291
EBITDA, $m
  57
  53
  54
  56
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  266
  285
  304
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  51
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  240
Tax expense, $m
  21
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  61
  65
Net income, $m
  49
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  133
  142
  153
  164
  175

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  824
  756
  773
  793
  815
  840
  867
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,082
  1,127
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,335
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,109
  2,210
  2,318
  2,430
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  740
  756
  773
  793
  815
  840
  867
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,082
  1,127
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,335
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,109
  2,210
  2,318
  2,430
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.436
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
Average production assets, $m
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
Working capital, $m
  46
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
Total debt, $m
  371
  381
  393
  407
  422
  438
  457
  477
  499
  522
  547
  574
  602
  633
  665
  700
  736
  774
  815
  858
  904
  952
  1,002
  1,056
  1,112
  1,171
  1,233
  1,299
  1,368
  1,440
  1,517
Total liabilities, $m
  503
  512
  524
  538
  553
  569
  588
  608
  630
  653
  678
  705
  733
  764
  796
  831
  867
  905
  946
  989
  1,035
  1,083
  1,133
  1,187
  1,243
  1,302
  1,364
  1,430
  1,499
  1,571
  1,648
Total equity, $m
  322
  243
  249
  255
  262
  270
  279
  289
  299
  310
  322
  335
  348
  363
  378
  394
  412
  430
  449
  470
  491
  514
  538
  564
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
  746
  782
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  825
  755
  773
  793
  815
  839
  867
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,040
  1,081
  1,127
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,335
  1,395
  1,459
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,751
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,109
  2,211
  2,317
  2,430
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.152
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.700
  1.710
  1.730
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  133
  142
  153
  164
  175
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  154
  164
  176
  188
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  90
  96
  104
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  27
  27
  28
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -126
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  140
  149
  160
  171
  182
  194
  207
  221
  236
  251
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  188
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  116
  33
  35
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  189
  201
  215
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  107
  28
  27
  25
  24
  22
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to individual and institutional clients. It launches separate client focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm launches equity, fixed income, and balanced mutual funds for its clients. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, and real estate markets. The firm also invests in exchange traded funds. It employs a multi manager approach for its products. The firm employs quantitative analysis to make its investments. It benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against the S&P 500 Index. The firm conducts in-house research to make its investments. Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in Hartford, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.1
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 115.2%
Total Debt to Equity 115.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 11.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Operating Margin 15.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Net Profit Margin 15.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 28.6%

VRTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $323 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Virtus Investment Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Virtus Investment Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for VRTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Virtus Investment Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Virtus Investment Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $111 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Virtus Investment Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Virtus Investment Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRTS are equal to 12.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Virtus Investment Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRTS is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $322 million for Virtus Investment Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.668 million for Virtus Investment Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Virtus Investment Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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NTRS Northern Trust 88.15 90.50  hold
MN Manning&Napier 4.10 75.62  str.buy
WHG Westwood Holdi 58.70 177.09  str.buy
PZN Pzena Investme 10.82 49.13  str.buy
SEIC SEI Investment 57.21 33.24  sell
AINC Ashford 47.03 8.95  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Virtus ETF Solutions Launches Alternative ETF   [Jun-28-17 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Duff & Phelps Closed-End Funds Announce Dividends   [Jun-15-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Duff & Phelps Select Income Fund Marks 30th Anniversary   [May-08-17 12:18PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jobs market chugging along pretty well: Expert   [May-05-17 06:18AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Virtus posts 1Q profit   [Apr-28-17 07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ A High-Quality, High-Conviction Small-Cap Fund   [Apr-15-17 07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Best Kept Contrarian Play: Virtus Investment Partners?   [Feb-13-17 12:44PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Virtus-RidgeWorth Deal: Boosts AUM, But Headwinds Ahead   [Dec-21-16 10:52AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Lightyear Selling RidgeWorth Investments to Virtus   [03:05PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Duff & Phelps Closed-End Funds Announce Dividends   [Dec-15-16 05:09PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Virtus Launches New Active Bond ETF Under Newfleet Banner   [Dec-14-16 01:38PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Sheila Hooda Joins Virtus Investment Partners Board   [Dec-12-16 05:52PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Virtus Investment Partners Inc (VRTS) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-11-16 07:43AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of VRTS Financial statements of VRTS Annual reports of VRTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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