Intrinsic value of Virtus Investment Partners - VRTS

Previous Close

$115.55

  Intrinsic Value

$237.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+105%

  Value-price divergence*

-29%

Previous close

$115.55

 
Intrinsic value

$237.39

 
Up/down potential

+105%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-29%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as VRTS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.45
  17.50
  16.25
  15.13
  14.11
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  323
  380
  441
  508
  580
  656
  737
  823
  914
  1,008
  1,108
  1,211
  1,319
  1,432
  1,549
  1,671
  1,797
  1,929
  2,066
  2,208
  2,355
  2,509
  2,669
  2,835
  3,008
  3,188
  3,376
  3,572
  3,777
  3,991
  4,214
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  193
  224
  258
  294
  333
  374
  417
  463
  511
  561
  613
  667
  724
  784
  845
  909
  976
  1,045
  1,117
  1,191
  1,269
  1,350
  1,434
  1,522
  1,613
  1,708
  1,807
  1,911
  2,019
  2,131
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
Total operating expenses, $m
  272
  307
  341
  378
  417
  459
  503
  549
  598
  650
  703
  759
  816
  877
  941
  1,006
  1,074
  1,145
  1,218
  1,294
  1,373
  1,455
  1,541
  1,630
  1,723
  1,819
  1,919
  2,023
  2,133
  2,246
  2,364
Operating income, $m
  51
  73
  101
  131
  163
  198
  235
  274
  316
  359
  405
  453
  503
  555
  609
  665
  723
  784
  848
  913
  982
  1,053
  1,128
  1,205
  1,286
  1,370
  1,458
  1,549
  1,645
  1,745
  1,849
EBITDA, $m
  57
  80
  108
  139
  173
  209
  247
  288
  331
  375
  423
  472
  523
  577
  633
  691
  752
  814
  880
  948
  1,019
  1,093
  1,169
  1,249
  1,333
  1,420
  1,510
  1,605
  1,704
  1,807
  1,915
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  60
  85
  111
  140
  171
  204
  239
  275
  314
  354
  397
  441
  487
  535
  585
  637
  691
  747
  806
  866
  930
  996
  1,064
  1,136
  1,211
  1,289
  1,370
  1,455
  1,544
  1,637
Tax expense, $m
  21
  16
  23
  30
  38
  46
  55
  64
  74
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  158
  172
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  269
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
Net income, $m
  49
  44
  62
  81
  102
  125
  149
  174
  201
  229
  259
  290
  322
  356
  391
  427
  465
  504
  545
  588
  632
  679
  727
  777
  829
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,062
  1,127
  1,195

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  824
  870
  1,012
  1,165
  1,329
  1,505
  1,691
  1,888
  2,095
  2,313
  2,541
  2,778
  3,026
  3,284
  3,553
  3,832
  4,122
  4,424
  4,737
  5,063
  5,402
  5,754
  6,120
  6,502
  6,899
  7,313
  7,744
  8,194
  8,663
  9,153
  9,664
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  740
  870
  1,012
  1,165
  1,329
  1,505
  1,691
  1,888
  2,095
  2,313
  2,541
  2,778
  3,026
  3,284
  3,553
  3,832
  4,122
  4,424
  4,737
  5,063
  5,402
  5,754
  6,120
  6,502
  6,899
  7,313
  7,744
  8,194
  8,663
  9,153
  9,664
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.436
  0.437
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
Average production assets, $m
  40
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  487
  514
Working capital, $m
  46
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -87
  -97
  -108
  -119
  -131
  -143
  -156
  -169
  -183
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -244
  -260
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -355
  -376
  -398
  -422
  -446
  -471
  -497
Total debt, $m
  371
  459
  555
  659
  770
  889
  1,016
  1,149
  1,290
  1,437
  1,592
  1,753
  1,921
  2,096
  2,278
  2,467
  2,664
  2,868
  3,081
  3,302
  3,531
  3,770
  4,019
  4,277
  4,546
  4,827
  5,119
  5,424
  5,742
  6,075
  6,421
Total liabilities, $m
  503
  590
  686
  790
  901
  1,020
  1,147
  1,280
  1,421
  1,568
  1,723
  1,884
  2,052
  2,227
  2,409
  2,598
  2,795
  2,999
  3,212
  3,433
  3,662
  3,901
  4,150
  4,408
  4,677
  4,958
  5,250
  5,555
  5,873
  6,206
  6,552
Total equity, $m
  322
  280
  326
  375
  428
  485
  545
  608
  675
  745
  818
  895
  974
  1,058
  1,144
  1,234
  1,327
  1,425
  1,525
  1,630
  1,739
  1,853
  1,971
  2,094
  2,221
  2,355
  2,494
  2,638
  2,789
  2,947
  3,112
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  825
  870
  1,012
  1,165
  1,329
  1,505
  1,692
  1,888
  2,096
  2,313
  2,541
  2,779
  3,026
  3,285
  3,553
  3,832
  4,122
  4,424
  4,737
  5,063
  5,401
  5,754
  6,121
  6,502
  6,898
  7,313
  7,744
  8,193
  8,662
  9,153
  9,664
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.152
  1.640
  1.700
  1.760
  1.800
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.060
  2.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322
  0.322

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  44
  62
  81
  102
  125
  149
  174
  201
  229
  259
  290
  322
  356
  391
  427
  465
  504
  545
  588
  632
  679
  727
  777
  829
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,062
  1,127
  1,195
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  51
  69
  90
  112
  136
  161
  188
  216
  246
  277
  309
  343
  378
  415
  453
  493
  535
  578
  623
  669
  718
  769
  821
  876
  934
  993
  1,056
  1,121
  1,189
  1,261
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  57
  77
  98
  121
  145
  171
  198
  227
  257
  288
  321
  356
  391
  429
  468
  508
  550
  594
  639
  687
  736
  787
  841
  897
  955
  1,016
  1,079
  1,145
  1,215
  1,287
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  3
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  45
  63
  83
  104
  126
  150
  176
  203
  231
  260
  291
  323
  357
  392
  429
  467
  506
  547
  590
  634
  680
  729
  779
  831
  886
  943
  1,002
  1,065
  1,130
  1,197
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -126
  88
  96
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  259
  269
  281
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  88
  96
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  259
  269
  281
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  133
  159
  187
  215
  245
  277
  309
  343
  378
  415
  452
  492
  532
  574
  618
  663
  710
  760
  811
  864
  919
  977
  1,037
  1,101
  1,166
  1,235
  1,307
  1,383
  1,462
  1,544
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  188
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  175
  114
  137
  162
  189
  217
  246
  277
  308
  342
  376
  412
  449
  488
  528
  570
  613
  659
  706
  755
  806
  859
  915
  973
  1,033
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,304
  1,380
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  162
  96
  106
  112
  117
  118
  118
  114
  109
  102
  93
  84
  74
  64
  54
  45
  36
  29
  22
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (Virtus) is a provider of investment management and related services to individuals and institutions. The Company provides its products in various forms and through multiple distribution channels. Its retail products include open-end mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange traded funds, variable insurance funds, undertakings for collective investments in transferable securities (UCITS) and separately managed accounts. Its open-end mutual funds are distributed through intermediaries. Its closed-end funds trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Its variable insurance funds are available as investment options in variable annuities and life insurance products distributed by life insurance companies. Separately managed accounts consists of intermediary programs, sponsored and distributed by unaffiliated brokerage firms, and private client accounts, which are offered to the high net-worth clients of its affiliated managers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 115.2%
Total Debt to Equity 115.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 11.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Operating Margin 15.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Net Profit Margin 15.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 28.6%

VRTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $323 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Virtus Investment Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Virtus Investment Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for VRTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Virtus Investment Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Virtus Investment Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $111 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Virtus Investment Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Virtus Investment Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRTS are equal to 12.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Virtus Investment Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRTS is equal to -11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $322 million for Virtus Investment Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.198 million for Virtus Investment Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Virtus Investment Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Duff & Phelps Closed-End Funds Announce Dividends   [Sep-19-17 05:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Virtus reports 2Q loss   [Jul-28-17 10:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Virtus ETF Solutions Launches Alternative ETF   [Jun-28-17 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Duff & Phelps Closed-End Funds Announce Dividends   [Jun-15-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Duff & Phelps Select Income Fund Marks 30th Anniversary   [May-08-17 12:18PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jobs market chugging along pretty well: Expert   [May-05-17 06:18AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Virtus posts 1Q profit   [Apr-28-17 07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ A High-Quality, High-Conviction Small-Cap Fund   [Apr-15-17 07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Best Kept Contrarian Play: Virtus Investment Partners?   [Feb-13-17 12:44PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Virtus-RidgeWorth Deal: Boosts AUM, But Headwinds Ahead   [Dec-21-16 10:52AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Lightyear Selling RidgeWorth Investments to Virtus   [03:05PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of VRTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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