Intrinsic value of Virtusa - VRTU

Previous Close

$48.52

  Intrinsic Value

$41.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

Previous close

$48.52

 
Intrinsic value

$41.31

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRTU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.17
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  859
  951
  1,047
  1,148
  1,253
  1,363
  1,477
  1,595
  1,718
  1,846
  1,980
  2,118
  2,262
  2,411
  2,567
  2,728
  2,897
  3,072
  3,255
  3,446
  3,645
  3,852
  4,069
  4,295
  4,531
  4,779
  5,037
  5,307
  5,590
  5,887
  6,197
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  877
  964
  1,055
  1,149
  1,248
  1,351
  1,457
  1,568
  1,684
  1,804
  1,907
  2,036
  2,171
  2,311
  2,457
  2,608
  2,766
  2,931
  3,103
  3,282
  3,468
  3,664
  3,867
  4,080
  4,303
  4,535
  4,779
  5,034
  5,300
  5,580
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  840
  877
  964
  1,055
  1,149
  1,248
  1,351
  1,457
  1,568
  1,684
  1,804
  1,907
  2,036
  2,171
  2,311
  2,457
  2,608
  2,766
  2,931
  3,103
  3,282
  3,468
  3,664
  3,867
  4,080
  4,303
  4,535
  4,779
  5,034
  5,300
  5,580
Operating income, $m
  18
  74
  83
  93
  104
  115
  126
  138
  150
  163
  176
  211
  225
  240
  256
  272
  288
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  405
  428
  451
  476
  501
  528
  557
  586
  617
EBITDA, $m
  44
  108
  119
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  210
  225
  241
  257
  274
  292
  310
  330
  349
  370
  392
  415
  438
  463
  489
  515
  544
  573
  604
  636
  670
  705
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  86
  92
  97
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  345
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  470
  495
  520
Tax expense, $m
  3
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
Net income, $m
  12
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  923
  781
  861
  943
  1,030
  1,120
  1,213
  1,311
  1,412
  1,517
  1,627
  1,740
  1,858
  1,981
  2,109
  2,242
  2,380
  2,524
  2,675
  2,831
  2,995
  3,165
  3,343
  3,529
  3,723
  3,926
  4,139
  4,361
  4,594
  4,837
  5,092
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  706
  781
  861
  943
  1,030
  1,120
  1,213
  1,311
  1,412
  1,517
  1,627
  1,740
  1,858
  1,981
  2,109
  2,242
  2,380
  2,524
  2,675
  2,831
  2,995
  3,165
  3,343
  3,529
  3,723
  3,926
  4,139
  4,361
  4,594
  4,837
  5,092
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.217
  1.218
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.218
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
Average production assets, $m
  180
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  310
  335
  361
  388
  416
  445
  475
  506
  539
  573
  608
  645
  684
  724
  765
  809
  854
  902
  952
  1,003
  1,058
  1,115
  1,174
  1,236
  1,301
Working capital, $m
  354
  162
  178
  195
  213
  232
  251
  271
  292
  314
  337
  360
  384
  410
  436
  464
  492
  522
  553
  586
  620
  655
  692
  730
  770
  812
  856
  902
  950
  1,001
  1,053
Total debt, $m
  186
  222
  269
  317
  369
  422
  477
  535
  594
  657
  721
  788
  858
  931
  1,006
  1,085
  1,167
  1,252
  1,341
  1,433
  1,530
  1,631
  1,736
  1,846
  1,961
  2,081
  2,206
  2,337
  2,475
  2,619
  2,769
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  462
  509
  557
  609
  662
  717
  775
  834
  897
  961
  1,028
  1,098
  1,171
  1,246
  1,325
  1,407
  1,492
  1,581
  1,673
  1,770
  1,871
  1,976
  2,086
  2,201
  2,321
  2,446
  2,577
  2,715
  2,859
  3,009
Total equity, $m
  497
  320
  352
  386
  421
  458
  496
  536
  577
  621
  665
  712
  760
  810
  863
  917
  974
  1,033
  1,094
  1,158
  1,225
  1,295
  1,367
  1,443
  1,523
  1,606
  1,693
  1,784
  1,879
  1,978
  2,083
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  923
  782
  861
  943
  1,030
  1,120
  1,213
  1,311
  1,411
  1,518
  1,626
  1,740
  1,858
  1,981
  2,109
  2,242
  2,381
  2,525
  2,675
  2,831
  2,995
  3,166
  3,343
  3,529
  3,724
  3,927
  4,139
  4,361
  4,594
  4,837
  5,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.374
  0.690
  0.760
  0.820
  0.880
  0.920
  0.960
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.397
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  131
  141
  150
  160
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  381
  401
  423
  445
  468
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  120
  128
  137
  141
  151
  161
  171
  182
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  356
  374
  394
  415
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  67
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  84
  90
  97
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  172
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  266
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  377
  396
  417
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  258
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  248
  50
  52
  54
  55
  56
  56
  56
  55
  54
  50
  48
  46
  43
  40
  37
  33
  30
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Virtusa Corporation (Virtusa) is an information technology services company. The Company's services include information technology (IT) and business consulting, digital enablement services, user experience (UX) design, development of IT applications, maintenance and support services, systems integration, infrastructure and managed services. Its services enable its clients to accelerate business outcomes by consolidating, rationalizing and modernizing the clients' core customer-facing processes into one or more core systems. It delivers solutions through a global delivery model, applying advanced methods, such as Agile, a technique designed to accelerate application development. The Company uses its consulting methodology, Accelerated Solution Design (ASD). It supports the Chief Information Officers (CIOs) of its client organizations in solving their critical issues, including managing total cost of ownership, accelerating time-to-market and increasing productivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Virtusa (VRTU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 120.9
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 66
Price to Free Cash Flow 207.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 43.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 35.6%
Total Debt to Equity 37.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
EBITDA Margin 6.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRTU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRTU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $859 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Virtusa. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Virtusa. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRTU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VRTU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Virtusa, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Virtusa.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRTU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRTU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Virtusa.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Virtusa. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRTU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRTU are equal to 21%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Virtusa operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRTU is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $497 million for Virtusa - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.358 million for Virtusa is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Virtusa at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Virtusa Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-09-17 11:19AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa misses 2Q profit forecasts   [07:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 12:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : September 26, 2017   [Sep-26-17 11:08AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa Named a Top 15 Sourcing Service Provider by ISG   [Sep-19-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Virtusa misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Virtusa misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : July 25, 2017   [Jul-25-17 02:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 05:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa misses Street 4Q forecasts   [07:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 10th   [May-10-17 09:06AM  Zacks]
▶ IAOP® Recognizes VirtusaPolaris as an Outsourcing Leader   [Apr-25-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Virtusa tops 3Q profit forecasts   [07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Crazy About Virtusa Corporation (VRTU) Anymore   [Dec-15-16 06:14AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of VRTU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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