Intrinsic value of Virtusa - VRTU

Previous Close

$49.96

  Intrinsic Value

$51.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$49.96

 
Intrinsic value

$51.54

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of VRTU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.17
  18.10
  16.79
  15.61
  14.55
  13.59
  12.74
  11.96
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
Revenue, $m
  859
  1,014
  1,185
  1,370
  1,569
  1,782
  2,009
  2,250
  2,503
  2,770
  3,049
  3,340
  3,645
  3,962
  4,292
  4,635
  4,992
  5,362
  5,748
  6,148
  6,564
  6,997
  7,447
  7,915
  8,403
  8,911
  9,440
  9,992
  10,568
  11,169
  11,796
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  935
  1,088
  1,254
  1,434
  1,626
  1,830
  2,047
  2,275
  2,515
  2,766
  3,008
  3,282
  3,567
  3,864
  4,173
  4,495
  4,828
  5,175
  5,536
  5,911
  6,300
  6,706
  7,127
  7,566
  8,024
  8,501
  8,997
  9,516
  10,057
  10,622
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  840
  935
  1,088
  1,254
  1,434
  1,626
  1,830
  2,047
  2,275
  2,515
  2,766
  3,008
  3,282
  3,567
  3,864
  4,173
  4,495
  4,828
  5,175
  5,536
  5,911
  6,300
  6,706
  7,127
  7,566
  8,024
  8,501
  8,997
  9,516
  10,057
  10,622
Operating income, $m
  18
  80
  97
  115
  135
  156
  179
  203
  228
  255
  282
  333
  363
  394
  427
  461
  497
  534
  572
  612
  654
  697
  741
  788
  837
  887
  940
  995
  1,052
  1,112
  1,174
EBITDA, $m
  44
  115
  135
  156
  178
  203
  229
  256
  285
  315
  347
  380
  415
  451
  488
  527
  568
  610
  654
  699
  747
  796
  847
  900
  956
  1,014
  1,074
  1,137
  1,202
  1,270
  1,342
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  9
  12
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  73
  88
  103
  119
  137
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  287
  312
  338
  365
  393
  423
  453
  485
  518
  552
  588
  625
  663
  703
  745
  789
  834
  882
  931
  983
Tax expense, $m
  3
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  77
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
Net income, $m
  12
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  114
  128
  144
  160
  176
  209
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  331
  354
  378
  403
  429
  456
  484
  513
  544
  576
  609
  644
  680
  717

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  923
  834
  974
  1,126
  1,289
  1,465
  1,651
  1,849
  2,057
  2,276
  2,505
  2,745
  2,995
  3,255
  3,526
  3,808
  4,102
  4,406
  4,723
  5,052
  5,394
  5,749
  6,119
  6,504
  6,905
  7,322
  7,757
  8,211
  8,684
  9,177
  9,693
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  706
  834
  974
  1,126
  1,289
  1,465
  1,651
  1,849
  2,057
  2,276
  2,505
  2,745
  2,995
  3,255
  3,526
  3,808
  4,102
  4,406
  4,723
  5,052
  5,394
  5,749
  6,119
  6,504
  6,905
  7,322
  7,757
  8,211
  8,684
  9,177
  9,693
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.217
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
Average production assets, $m
  180
  213
  249
  288
  330
  374
  422
  472
  526
  582
  640
  701
  765
  832
  901
  973
  1,048
  1,126
  1,207
  1,291
  1,378
  1,469
  1,564
  1,662
  1,765
  1,871
  1,982
  2,098
  2,219
  2,345
  2,477
Working capital, $m
  354
  172
  201
  233
  267
  303
  342
  382
  426
  471
  518
  568
  620
  673
  730
  788
  849
  912
  977
  1,045
  1,116
  1,189
  1,266
  1,346
  1,429
  1,515
  1,605
  1,699
  1,797
  1,899
  2,005
Total debt, $m
  186
  253
  335
  425
  522
  626
  736
  853
  976
  1,105
  1,240
  1,382
  1,530
  1,684
  1,844
  2,011
  2,184
  2,364
  2,551
  2,746
  2,948
  3,158
  3,376
  3,604
  3,841
  4,087
  4,344
  4,612
  4,892
  5,184
  5,489
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  493
  575
  665
  762
  866
  976
  1,093
  1,216
  1,345
  1,480
  1,622
  1,770
  1,924
  2,084
  2,251
  2,424
  2,604
  2,791
  2,986
  3,188
  3,398
  3,616
  3,844
  4,081
  4,327
  4,584
  4,852
  5,132
  5,424
  5,729
Total equity, $m
  497
  341
  398
  460
  527
  599
  675
  756
  841
  931
  1,025
  1,123
  1,225
  1,331
  1,442
  1,558
  1,678
  1,802
  1,932
  2,066
  2,206
  2,351
  2,503
  2,660
  2,824
  2,995
  3,173
  3,358
  3,552
  3,754
  3,964
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  923
  834
  973
  1,125
  1,289
  1,465
  1,651
  1,849
  2,057
  2,276
  2,505
  2,745
  2,995
  3,255
  3,526
  3,809
  4,102
  4,406
  4,723
  5,052
  5,394
  5,749
  6,119
  6,504
  6,905
  7,322
  7,757
  8,210
  8,684
  9,178
  9,693
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.374
  0.740
  0.840
  0.920
  0.990
  1.040
  1.090
  1.130
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.397
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  114
  128
  144
  160
  176
  209
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  331
  354
  378
  403
  429
  456
  484
  513
  544
  576
  609
  644
  680
  717
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  89
  102
  116
  131
  146
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  257
  279
  303
  327
  353
  379
  407
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  596
  633
  670
  710
  751
  793
  838
  885
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  63
  73
  84
  97
  110
  125
  140
  157
  175
  193
  207
  228
  249
  271
  294
  319
  344
  370
  397
  425
  455
  485
  517
  550
  584
  620
  657
  696
  736
  778
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  67
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -226
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  17
  23
  29
  35
  43
  52
  61
  72
  83
  95
  103
  116
  131
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  251
  271
  291
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  460
  488
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  76
  83
  90
  97
  104
  110
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  76
  83
  90
  97
  104
  110
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  93
  105
  118
  132
  147
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  244
  264
  285
  306
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  605
  639
  675
  712
  752
  793
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  249
  48
  56
  65
  75
  86
  97
  110
  123
  137
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  251
  271
  291
  313
  335
  359
  383
  408
  434
  461
  490
  519
  550
  582
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  239
  44
  49
  54
  58
  62
  66
  69
  71
  72
  69
  69
  68
  65
  62
  59
  55
  50
  45
  40
  35
  30
  25
  21
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Virtusa Corporation (Virtusa) is an information technology services company. The Company's services include information technology (IT) and business consulting, digital enablement services, user experience (UX) design, development of IT applications, maintenance and support services, systems integration, infrastructure and managed services. Its services enable its clients to accelerate business outcomes by consolidating, rationalizing and modernizing the clients' core customer-facing processes into one or more core systems. It delivers solutions through a global delivery model, applying advanced methods, such as Agile, a technique designed to accelerate application development. The Company uses its consulting methodology, Accelerated Solution Design (ASD). It supports the Chief Information Officers (CIOs) of its client organizations in solving their critical issues, including managing total cost of ownership, accelerating time-to-market and increasing productivity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Virtusa (VRTU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 124.5
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 67.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 213.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 43.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 35.6%
Total Debt to Equity 37.4%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
EBITDA Margin 6.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

VRTU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VRTU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $859 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Virtusa. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Virtusa. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VRTU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VRTU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Virtusa, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Virtusa.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VRTU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VRTU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Virtusa.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Virtusa. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VRTU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VRTU are equal to 21%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Virtusa operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VRTU is equal to 17%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $497 million for Virtusa - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.946 million for Virtusa is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Virtusa at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Virtusa Is In an Uptrend: My Strategy From the Charts   [Feb-23-18 07:58AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Virtusa reports 3Q loss   [Feb-08-18 06:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Virtusa Corp.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Nov-09-17 11:19AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa misses 2Q profit forecasts   [07:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 12:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : September 26, 2017   [Sep-26-17 11:08AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa Named a Top 15 Sourcing Service Provider by ISG   [Sep-19-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Virtusa misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Virtusa misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : July 25, 2017   [Jul-25-17 02:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 05:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Virtusa Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Virtusa misses Street 4Q forecasts   [07:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 10th   [May-10-17 09:06AM  Zacks]
▶ IAOP® Recognizes VirtusaPolaris as an Outsourcing Leader   [Apr-25-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Virtusa tops 3Q profit forecasts   [07:59AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of VRTU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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