Intrinsic value of VSE - VSEC

Previous Close

$59.13

  Intrinsic Value

$77.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$59.13

 
Intrinsic value

$77.23

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.59
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.12
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  692
  839
  1,005
  1,187
  1,388
  1,606
  1,840
  2,092
  2,360
  2,643
  2,942
  3,257
  3,586
  3,930
  4,290
  4,664
  5,054
  5,459
  5,881
  6,318
  6,773
  7,246
  7,738
  8,249
  8,781
  9,334
  9,910
  10,510
  11,135
  11,786
  12,466
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  755
  900
  1,060
  1,236
  1,427
  1,633
  1,853
  2,087
  2,336
  2,598
  2,853
  3,142
  3,444
  3,759
  4,087
  4,428
  4,784
  5,153
  5,536
  5,935
  6,350
  6,780
  7,228
  7,694
  8,179
  8,683
  9,209
  9,757
  10,328
  10,923
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  640
  755
  900
  1,060
  1,236
  1,427
  1,633
  1,853
  2,087
  2,336
  2,598
  2,853
  3,142
  3,444
  3,759
  4,087
  4,428
  4,784
  5,153
  5,536
  5,935
  6,350
  6,780
  7,228
  7,694
  8,179
  8,683
  9,209
  9,757
  10,328
  10,923
Operating income, $m
  52
  84
  104
  127
  152
  179
  208
  239
  272
  307
  344
  403
  444
  486
  531
  577
  625
  676
  728
  782
  838
  897
  958
  1,021
  1,087
  1,155
  1,226
  1,301
  1,378
  1,459
  1,543
EBITDA, $m
  78
  120
  143
  169
  198
  229
  262
  298
  336
  377
  419
  464
  511
  560
  611
  664
  720
  778
  838
  900
  965
  1,032
  1,102
  1,175
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,497
  1,586
  1,679
  1,776
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  48
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  134
  143
  153
  164
  175
  186
  198
  211
  223
  237
Earnings before tax, $m
  42
  76
  93
  112
  133
  156
  181
  207
  235
  265
  296
  348
  383
  418
  456
  495
  535
  577
  621
  667
  714
  763
  814
  867
  923
  980
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,235
  1,306
Tax expense, $m
  15
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  63
  71
  80
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  315
  334
  353
Net income, $m
  27
  55
  68
  82
  97
  114
  132
  151
  172
  193
  216
  254
  279
  305
  333
  361
  391
  422
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  633
  674
  716
  759
  805
  852
  902
  953

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  662
  803
  961
  1,136
  1,328
  1,536
  1,761
  2,002
  2,258
  2,529
  2,815
  3,116
  3,431
  3,761
  4,105
  4,463
  4,836
  5,224
  5,627
  6,046
  6,482
  6,934
  7,405
  7,894
  8,403
  8,932
  9,483
  10,057
  10,655
  11,279
  11,929
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  662
  803
  961
  1,136
  1,328
  1,536
  1,761
  2,002
  2,258
  2,529
  2,815
  3,116
  3,431
  3,761
  4,105
  4,463
  4,836
  5,224
  5,627
  6,046
  6,482
  6,934
  7,405
  7,894
  8,403
  8,932
  9,483
  10,057
  10,655
  11,279
  11,929
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.045
  1.046
  1.045
  1.045
  1.046
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  198
  240
  287
  340
  397
  459
  526
  598
  675
  756
  841
  931
  1,026
  1,124
  1,227
  1,334
  1,445
  1,561
  1,682
  1,807
  1,937
  2,072
  2,213
  2,359
  2,511
  2,669
  2,834
  3,006
  3,185
  3,371
  3,565
Working capital, $m
  110
  159
  190
  224
  262
  303
  348
  395
  446
  500
  556
  615
  678
  743
  811
  882
  955
  1,032
  1,111
  1,194
  1,280
  1,370
  1,462
  1,559
  1,660
  1,764
  1,873
  1,986
  2,104
  2,228
  2,356
Total debt, $m
  237
  324
  421
  529
  647
  775
  913
  1,061
  1,219
  1,386
  1,562
  1,747
  1,940
  2,143
  2,355
  2,575
  2,804
  3,043
  3,291
  3,548
  3,816
  4,095
  4,384
  4,685
  4,998
  5,323
  5,662
  6,015
  6,383
  6,767
  7,167
Total liabilities, $m
  407
  494
  591
  699
  817
  945
  1,083
  1,231
  1,389
  1,556
  1,732
  1,917
  2,110
  2,313
  2,525
  2,745
  2,974
  3,213
  3,461
  3,718
  3,986
  4,265
  4,554
  4,855
  5,168
  5,493
  5,832
  6,185
  6,553
  6,937
  7,337
Total equity, $m
  255
  309
  370
  437
  511
  592
  678
  771
  869
  974
  1,084
  1,200
  1,321
  1,448
  1,580
  1,718
  1,862
  2,011
  2,167
  2,328
  2,495
  2,670
  2,851
  3,039
  3,235
  3,439
  3,651
  3,872
  4,102
  4,342
  4,593
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  662
  803
  961
  1,136
  1,328
  1,537
  1,761
  2,002
  2,258
  2,530
  2,816
  3,117
  3,431
  3,761
  4,105
  4,463
  4,836
  5,224
  5,628
  6,046
  6,481
  6,935
  7,405
  7,894
  8,403
  8,932
  9,483
  10,057
  10,655
  11,279
  11,930
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.929
  1.050
  1.140
  1.210
  1.260
  1.310
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  55
  68
  82
  97
  114
  132
  151
  172
  193
  216
  254
  279
  305
  333
  361
  391
  422
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  633
  674
  716
  759
  805
  852
  902
  953
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  135
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  91
  107
  124
  143
  164
  186
  210
  236
  262
  291
  315
  346
  379
  413
  448
  485
  524
  563
  605
  648
  693
  739
  787
  838
  890
  945
  1,001
  1,060
  1,122
  1,186
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  63
  75
  90
  105
  123
  142
  163
  185
  209
  234
  256
  284
  314
  345
  378
  412
  447
  484
  522
  562
  603
  646
  691
  737
  785
  836
  888
  942
  999
  1,058
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -125
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -414
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  8
  13
  18
  26
  35
  45
  56
  69
  84
  99
  111
  129
  148
  169
  190
  213
  237
  261
  287
  314
  341
  370
  400
  431
  463
  496
  531
  567
  604
  643
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  87
  97
  108
  118
  128
  138
  148
  158
  167
  176
  185
  194
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -39
  87
  97
  108
  118
  128
  138
  148
  158
  167
  176
  185
  194
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  95
  110
  126
  144
  163
  183
  204
  227
  251
  275
  296
  323
  351
  380
  411
  442
  475
  509
  545
  581
  620
  659
  701
  744
  789
  835
  884
  935
  988
  1,043
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  41
  49
  59
  70
  82
  96
  112
  128
  146
  165
  180
  202
  224
  248
  273
  299
  326
  354
  383
  414
  445
  478
  513
  548
  585
  623
  663
  705
  748
  793
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  38
  42
  46
  50
  53
  55
  56
  56
  55
  53
  49
  46
  42
  37
  32
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

VSE Corporation is a services and supply chain management company. The Company's segments include Supply Chain Management Group, Aviation Group, Federal Services Group, and IT, Energy and Management Consulting Group. The Company provides logistics and distribution services for legacy systems and equipment and professional and technical services to the United States Government, including the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the United States Postal Service (USPS), federal civilian agencies, and commercial and other customers. The Company's service offerings include supply chain and inventory management services; vehicle fleet sustainment programs; vehicle fleet parts supply and distribution; maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) of aircraft engines and engine components; aircraft engine parts supply and distribution; engineering support for military vehicles; military equipment refurbishment and modification, and ship MRO and follow-on technical support.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VSE (VSEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 84.7%
Total Debt to Equity 92.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 7.4%

VSEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $692 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VSE. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of VSE. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for VSEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VSE, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VSE.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for VSE.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VSE. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSEC are equal to 28.6%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VSE operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSEC is equal to 18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $255 million for VSE - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.838 million for VSE is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VSE at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $35.6M in New Delivery Order Awards   [Oct-18-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $57.4M in FMS Delivery Orders   [Sep-05-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2017   [Jul-27-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Receives $46.2M in New Awards   [Jul-18-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Awarded $22.3M Air Force Ground Equipment Task Order   [Jun-14-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Declares a $0.07 Per Share Cash Dividend   [May-03-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ VSE posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 07:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VSE Corp. : January 17, 2017   [Jan-17-17 01:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $53.4M in FMS Delivery Orders   [Oct-11-16 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2016   [Jul-28-16 07:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Announces Jury Verdict in Civil Litigation Matter   [Jul-01-16 04:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Reports Financial Results for First Quarter 2016   [Apr-28-16 05:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Receives $42M in New Awards   [Dec-17  04:30PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of VSEC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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