Intrinsic value of Vishay Intertechnology - VSH

Previous Close

$23.20

  Intrinsic Value

$19.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-17%

Previous close

$23.20

 
Intrinsic value

$19.34

 
Up/down potential

-17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,323
  2,369
  2,424
  2,486
  2,556
  2,634
  2,719
  2,811
  2,912
  3,020
  3,135
  3,259
  3,392
  3,532
  3,682
  3,841
  4,009
  4,188
  4,376
  4,575
  4,785
  5,007
  5,241
  5,488
  5,747
  6,021
  6,309
  6,612
  6,931
  7,267
  7,620
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  455
  465
  476
  489
  504
  520
  537
  555
  576
  597
  606
  631
  657
  685
  714
  745
  779
  814
  851
  890
  931
  974
  1,020
  1,069
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,289
  1,351
  1,417
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,855
  1,902
  1,949
  1,998
  2,048
  2,099
  2,152
  2,205
  2,260
  2,317
  2,375
  2,434
  2,495
  2,557
  2,621
  2,687
  2,754
  2,823
  2,894
  2,966
  3,040
  3,116
  3,194
  3,274
  3,356
  3,440
  3,526
  3,614
  3,704
  3,797
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,208
  2,310
  2,367
  2,425
  2,487
  2,552
  2,619
  2,689
  2,760
  2,836
  2,914
  2,981
  3,065
  3,152
  3,242
  3,335
  3,432
  3,533
  3,637
  3,745
  3,856
  3,971
  4,090
  4,214
  4,343
  4,475
  4,613
  4,755
  4,903
  5,055
  5,214
Operating income, $m
  115
  60
  58
  61
  69
  82
  100
  123
  151
  184
  221
  278
  327
  381
  440
  505
  577
  655
  739
  831
  930
  1,036
  1,150
  1,273
  1,405
  1,546
  1,696
  1,857
  2,029
  2,212
  2,407
EBITDA, $m
  274
  214
  215
  222
  235
  252
  275
  304
  337
  377
  421
  472
  528
  590
  658
  733
  815
  903
  999
  1,102
  1,213
  1,333
  1,461
  1,599
  1,746
  1,903
  2,070
  2,249
  2,440
  2,643
  2,858
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  158
Earnings before tax, $m
  94
  40
  37
  39
  45
  56
  72
  93
  118
  148
  183
  236
  281
  331
  387
  448
  515
  588
  668
  754
  847
  948
  1,056
  1,172
  1,297
  1,431
  1,574
  1,726
  1,890
  2,064
  2,249
Tax expense, $m
  45
  11
  10
  10
  12
  15
  19
  25
  32
  40
  49
  64
  76
  89
  104
  121
  139
  159
  180
  204
  229
  256
  285
  317
  350
  386
  425
  466
  510
  557
  607
Net income, $m
  49
  29
  27
  28
  33
  41
  53
  68
  86
  108
  133
  173
  205
  242
  282
  327
  376
  429
  488
  551
  619
  692
  771
  856
  947
  1,044
  1,149
  1,260
  1,379
  1,506
  1,642

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,098
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,078
  2,020
  2,066
  2,120
  2,179
  2,245
  2,318
  2,397
  2,482
  2,574
  2,673
  2,779
  2,891
  3,012
  3,139
  3,275
  3,418
  3,570
  3,731
  3,900
  4,080
  4,269
  4,468
  4,678
  4,900
  5,133
  5,379
  5,637
  5,909
  6,195
  6,496
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,980
  2,020
  2,066
  2,120
  2,179
  2,245
  2,318
  2,397
  2,482
  2,574
  2,673
  2,779
  2,891
  3,012
  3,139
  3,275
  3,418
  3,570
  3,731
  3,900
  4,080
  4,269
  4,468
  4,678
  4,900
  5,133
  5,379
  5,637
  5,909
  6,195
  6,496
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
Average production assets, $m
  951
  969
  991
  1,017
  1,045
  1,077
  1,112
  1,150
  1,191
  1,235
  1,282
  1,333
  1,387
  1,445
  1,506
  1,571
  1,640
  1,713
  1,790
  1,871
  1,957
  2,048
  2,144
  2,244
  2,351
  2,463
  2,580
  2,704
  2,835
  2,972
  3,117
Working capital, $m
  1,407
  315
  322
  331
  340
  350
  362
  374
  387
  402
  417
  433
  451
  470
  490
  511
  533
  557
  582
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  764
  801
  839
  879
  922
  967
  1,013
Total debt, $m
  446
  477
  513
  553
  599
  649
  705
  765
  830
  901
  976
  1,057
  1,143
  1,235
  1,332
  1,436
  1,545
  1,661
  1,784
  1,914
  2,051
  2,195
  2,348
  2,508
  2,677
  2,856
  3,043
  3,241
  3,449
  3,667
  3,897
Total liabilities, $m
  1,512
  1,543
  1,579
  1,619
  1,665
  1,715
  1,771
  1,831
  1,896
  1,967
  2,042
  2,123
  2,209
  2,301
  2,398
  2,502
  2,611
  2,727
  2,850
  2,980
  3,117
  3,261
  3,414
  3,574
  3,743
  3,922
  4,109
  4,307
  4,515
  4,733
  4,963
Total equity, $m
  1,566
  477
  488
  500
  514
  530
  547
  566
  586
  608
  631
  656
  682
  711
  741
  773
  807
  843
  880
  920
  963
  1,007
  1,054
  1,104
  1,156
  1,211
  1,269
  1,330
  1,395
  1,462
  1,533
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,078
  2,020
  2,067
  2,119
  2,179
  2,245
  2,318
  2,397
  2,482
  2,575
  2,673
  2,779
  2,891
  3,012
  3,139
  3,275
  3,418
  3,570
  3,730
  3,900
  4,080
  4,268
  4,468
  4,678
  4,899
  5,133
  5,378
  5,637
  5,910
  6,195
  6,496
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.285
  1.000
  1.050
  1.110
  1.160
  1.230
  1.290
  1.350
  1.420
  1.480
  1.550
  1.610
  1.680
  1.740
  1.800
  1.860
  1.920
  1.970
  2.030
  2.080
  2.130
  2.180
  2.230
  2.270
  2.320
  2.360
  2.400
  2.440
  2.470
  2.510
  2.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  29
  27
  28
  33
  41
  53
  68
  86
  108
  133
  173
  205
  242
  282
  327
  376
  429
  488
  551
  619
  692
  771
  856
  947
  1,044
  1,149
  1,260
  1,379
  1,506
  1,642
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  159
  155
  158
  161
  166
  170
  175
  181
  187
  193
  200
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
Funds from operations, $m
  314
  184
  185
  190
  199
  211
  228
  248
  273
  301
  333
  366
  406
  451
  501
  555
  614
  678
  747
  822
  902
  989
  1,082
  1,181
  1,288
  1,401
  1,523
  1,652
  1,790
  1,937
  2,093
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  296
  178
  178
  181
  189
  201
  217
  236
  259
  287
  318
  349
  389
  433
  481
  534
  591
  654
  722
  795
  874
  959
  1,050
  1,148
  1,253
  1,365
  1,484
  1,612
  1,748
  1,893
  2,046
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -138
  -140
  -144
  -147
  -152
  -156
  -161
  -167
  -173
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -411
  -431
New CAPEX, $m
  -135
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -149
  -157
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -237
  -247
  -259
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -523
  -548
  -575
Free cash flow, $m
  147
  21
  15
  12
  13
  18
  26
  37
  52
  70
  91
  113
  142
  174
  210
  250
  295
  343
  397
  454
  517
  585
  658
  737
  821
  912
  1,010
  1,114
  1,225
  1,344
  1,471
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -82
  31
  35
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
  219
  230
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -105
  31
  35
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
  219
  230
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  53
  50
  53
  59
  68
  81
  97
  117
  140
  167
  194
  228
  266
  308
  354
  404
  460
  519
  584
  654
  729
  810
  897
  991
  1,091
  1,197
  1,311
  1,433
  1,563
  1,701
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  56
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,098
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,142
  39
  40
  45
  53
  64
  79
  97
  119
  144
  169
  201
  237
  278
  322
  371
  424
  481
  544
  612
  685
  763
  848
  938
  1,035
  1,139
  1,250
  1,369
  1,495
  1,630
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,095
  36
  35
  37
  41
  46
  53
  61
  68
  75
  80
  86
  90
  93
  95
  94
  92
  89
  84
  78
  71
  63
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. is a global manufacturer and supplier of discrete semiconductors and passive components. The Company operates through five product segments: MOSFETs, Diodes, Optoelectronic Components, Resistors & Inductors and Capacitors. MOSFETs segment offers low-voltage TrenchFET MOSFETs and high-voltage MOSFETs. Diodes segment's products include rectifiers, small signal diodes, protection diodes, thyristors/silicon-controlled rectifiers (SCRs) and power modules. Optoelectronic Components segment includes infrared (IR) emitters and detectors, IR remote control receivers, optocouplers, solid-state relays, optical sensors, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), 7-segment displays and IR data transceiver modules (IrDA). Resistors and Inductors segment manufactures various types of fixed resistors, both in discrete and network forms, as well as various variable types. Capacitors segment manufactures products based on capacitor technologies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vishay Intertechnology (VSH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 69.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 28.5%
Total Debt to Equity 28.5%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 47.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 107.1%
Payout Ratio 75.5%

VSH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2323 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vishay Intertechnology. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Vishay Intertechnology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VSH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vishay Intertechnology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vishay Intertechnology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1810 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Vishay Intertechnology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vishay Intertechnology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSH are equal to 40.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vishay Intertechnology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSH is equal to 13.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1566 million for Vishay Intertechnology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 146.988 million for Vishay Intertechnology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vishay Intertechnology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Vishay Intertechnology Increases Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-15-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Vishay beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-26-17 08:30AM  Associated Press]
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▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 31st   [Aug-31-17 08:56AM  Zacks]
▶ Vishay Intertechnology Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-22-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of VSH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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