Intrinsic value of Versum Materials - VSM

Previous Close

$35.16

  Intrinsic Value

$7.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$35.16

 
Intrinsic value

$7.26

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.87
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  970
  1,123
  1,289
  1,466
  1,654
  1,854
  2,065
  2,287
  2,520
  2,763
  3,017
  3,281
  3,556
  3,843
  4,140
  4,449
  4,771
  5,105
  5,452
  5,813
  6,189
  6,579
  6,986
  7,410
  7,851
  8,311
  8,791
  9,292
  9,815
  10,361
  10,932
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  873
  999
  1,134
  1,278
  1,430
  1,591
  1,760
  1,937
  2,122
  2,315
  2,498
  2,708
  2,926
  3,152
  3,388
  3,633
  3,887
  4,151
  4,426
  4,712
  5,010
  5,319
  5,642
  5,978
  6,328
  6,694
  7,075
  7,474
  7,889
  8,324
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  691
  873
  999
  1,134
  1,278
  1,430
  1,591
  1,760
  1,937
  2,122
  2,315
  2,498
  2,708
  2,926
  3,152
  3,388
  3,633
  3,887
  4,151
  4,426
  4,712
  5,010
  5,319
  5,642
  5,978
  6,328
  6,694
  7,075
  7,474
  7,889
  8,324
Operating income, $m
  279
  250
  289
  332
  377
  424
  475
  528
  583
  641
  702
  783
  848
  917
  988
  1,061
  1,138
  1,218
  1,301
  1,387
  1,476
  1,570
  1,667
  1,768
  1,873
  1,983
  2,097
  2,217
  2,341
  2,472
  2,608
EBITDA, $m
  326
  305
  350
  398
  450
  504
  561
  622
  685
  751
  820
  892
  967
  1,044
  1,125
  1,209
  1,297
  1,388
  1,482
  1,580
  1,682
  1,788
  1,899
  2,014
  2,134
  2,259
  2,389
  2,526
  2,668
  2,816
  2,971
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  35
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  123
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  344
Earnings before tax, $m
  279
  215
  258
  295
  334
  375
  419
  464
  512
  562
  615
  687
  744
  803
  864
  928
  994
  1,063
  1,134
  1,209
  1,286
  1,367
  1,450
  1,538
  1,628
  1,723
  1,822
  1,925
  2,033
  2,146
  2,263
Tax expense, $m
  59
  58
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  152
  166
  186
  201
  217
  233
  251
  268
  287
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  415
  440
  465
  492
  520
  549
  579
  611
Net income, $m
  212
  157
  188
  215
  244
  274
  306
  339
  374
  411
  449
  502
  543
  586
  631
  677
  726
  776
  828
  882
  939
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,189
  1,258
  1,330
  1,406
  1,484
  1,566
  1,652

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  106
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,044
  1,209
  1,387
  1,578
  1,781
  1,996
  2,223
  2,462
  2,712
  2,974
  3,247
  3,532
  3,828
  4,136
  4,457
  4,790
  5,135
  5,495
  5,869
  6,257
  6,661
  7,082
  7,520
  7,976
  8,451
  8,946
  9,463
  10,002
  10,565
  11,153
  11,767
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  938
  1,209
  1,387
  1,578
  1,781
  1,996
  2,223
  2,462
  2,712
  2,974
  3,247
  3,532
  3,828
  4,136
  4,457
  4,790
  5,135
  5,495
  5,869
  6,257
  6,661
  7,082
  7,520
  7,976
  8,451
  8,946
  9,463
  10,002
  10,565
  11,153
  11,767
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.034
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
  0.929
Average production assets, $m
  378
  437
  501
  570
  644
  721
  803
  890
  980
  1,075
  1,173
  1,276
  1,383
  1,495
  1,611
  1,731
  1,856
  1,986
  2,121
  2,261
  2,407
  2,559
  2,718
  2,882
  3,054
  3,233
  3,420
  3,615
  3,818
  4,030
  4,253
Working capital, $m
  364
  306
  351
  399
  450
  504
  562
  622
  685
  751
  821
  892
  967
  1,045
  1,126
  1,210
  1,298
  1,389
  1,483
  1,581
  1,683
  1,790
  1,900
  2,015
  2,135
  2,261
  2,391
  2,527
  2,670
  2,818
  2,973
Total debt, $m
  986
  893
  1,053
  1,225
  1,408
  1,602
  1,806
  2,021
  2,246
  2,482
  2,727
  2,984
  3,250
  3,528
  3,816
  4,116
  4,427
  4,751
  5,087
  5,437
  5,800
  6,179
  6,573
  6,983
  7,411
  7,857
  8,322
  8,807
  9,314
  9,843
  10,396
Total liabilities, $m
  1,181
  1,088
  1,248
  1,420
  1,603
  1,797
  2,001
  2,216
  2,441
  2,677
  2,922
  3,179
  3,445
  3,723
  4,011
  4,311
  4,622
  4,946
  5,282
  5,632
  5,995
  6,374
  6,768
  7,178
  7,606
  8,052
  8,517
  9,002
  9,509
  10,038
  10,591
Total equity, $m
  -137
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  222
  246
  271
  297
  325
  353
  383
  414
  446
  479
  514
  550
  587
  626
  666
  708
  752
  798
  845
  895
  946
  1,000
  1,057
  1,115
  1,177
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,044
  1,209
  1,387
  1,578
  1,781
  1,997
  2,223
  2,462
  2,712
  2,974
  3,247
  3,532
  3,828
  4,137
  4,457
  4,790
  5,136
  5,496
  5,869
  6,258
  6,661
  7,082
  7,520
  7,976
  8,451
  8,947
  9,463
  10,002
  10,566
  11,153
  11,768
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -7.197
  7.390
  7.590
  7.760
  7.910
  8.020
  8.120
  8.210
  8.280
  8.340
  8.400
  8.450
  8.490
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.620
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.259
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  212
  157
  188
  215
  244
  274
  306
  339
  374
  411
  449
  502
  543
  586
  631
  677
  726
  776
  828
  882
  939
  998
  1,059
  1,122
  1,189
  1,258
  1,330
  1,406
  1,484
  1,566
  1,652
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
Funds from operations, $m
  246
  213
  249
  282
  317
  353
  392
  433
  476
  520
  567
  611
  661
  714
  769
  825
  884
  946
  1,009
  1,076
  1,145
  1,216
  1,291
  1,369
  1,450
  1,534
  1,622
  1,714
  1,811
  1,911
  2,016
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
Cash from operations, $m
  253
  171
  204
  234
  265
  299
  335
  373
  413
  454
  498
  539
  586
  636
  688
  741
  797
  855
  915
  977
  1,042
  1,110
  1,180
  1,254
  1,330
  1,409
  1,492
  1,578
  1,668
  1,762
  1,860
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -309
  -326
  -344
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -222
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -487
  -512
  -538
  -566
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  79
  103
  122
  143
  166
  191
  218
  246
  276
  307
  336
  370
  406
  444
  483
  524
  566
  610
  656
  703
  752
  803
  856
  912
  969
  1,029
  1,091
  1,156
  1,224
  1,294
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  572
  -93
  160
  172
  183
  194
  204
  215
  225
  236
  246
  256
  267
  277
  288
  300
  311
  324
  336
  350
  364
  378
  394
  410
  428
  446
  465
  485
  507
  529
  553
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  101
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -106
  8
  160
  172
  183
  194
  204
  215
  225
  236
  246
  256
  267
  277
  288
  300
  311
  324
  336
  350
  364
  378
  394
  410
  428
  446
  465
  485
  507
  529
  553
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  87
  263
  294
  326
  360
  396
  433
  471
  512
  553
  592
  637
  684
  732
  783
  835
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,067
  1,131
  1,197
  1,267
  1,339
  1,415
  1,494
  1,576
  1,663
  1,753
  1,847
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  846
  -258
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -171
  245
  275
  306
  338
  373
  409
  446
  485
  526
  563
  607
  653
  700
  750
  801
  854
  909
  967
  1,026
  1,089
  1,154
  1,221
  1,292
  1,365
  1,442
  1,522
  1,606
  1,694
  1,785
Discount rate, %
 
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -152
  193
  189
  181
  170
  158
  143
  127
  110
  94
  78
  64
  51
  39
  30
  22
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Versum Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, transports, and handles specialty materials to the semiconductor and display industries in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, China, Europe, and rest of Asia. It operates in two segments, Materials, and Delivery Systems and Services (DS&S). The Materials segment provides specialty chemicals and materials used in semiconductors, as well as specialty gases used in the semiconductor manufacturing process, including high purity process materials for deposition, metallization, and chamber cleaning and etching; chemicals mechanical planarization slurries; organosilanes; organometallics and liquid dopants for thin film deposition; and formulated chemical products for post-etch cleaning primarily for the manufacture of silicon and compound semiconductors, and thin film transistor liquid crystal displays. The DS&S segment develops, designs, manufactures, and sells bulk gas, specialty gas, and specialty chemical cabinets and systems, which are used to manage the delivery of principal materials into the semiconductor manufacturing process; and flow and temperature control systems and analytical systems to capture data. It also engages in the project management for installation and startup of the gas and chemical delivery systems, and inventory management; and provision of spare parts, equipment upgrades, equipment maintenance, and training services. In addition, this segment offers on-site services to assist customers in managing the inventory of gases and chemicals comprising ordering, product changes and monitoring, quality assurance, operation of delivery systems, and managing the bulk gas and specialty gas operations. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Versum Materials (VSM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book -27.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity -715.3%
Total Debt to Equity -719.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Return On Total Capital 27.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Return On Equity 74.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 33.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Operating Margin 28.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 21.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

VSM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $970 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Versum Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Versum Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for VSM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Versum Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Versum Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Versum Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Versum Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSM are equal to 38.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Versum Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSM is equal to 27.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-137 million for Versum Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 106.192 million for Versum Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Versum Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Versum Materials Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [May-20-17 06:34AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Versum Materials meets 2Q profit forecasts   [06:41AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of VSM Financial statements of VSM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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