Intrinsic value of Versar - VSR

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$1.64

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$1.64

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
Revenue, $m
  168
  233
  329
  454
  610
  803
  1,035
  1,310
  1,629
  1,995
  2,408
  2,868
  3,376
  3,931
  4,532
  5,178
  5,869
  6,603
  7,379
  8,197
  9,055
  9,954
  10,893
  11,872
  12,891
  13,952
  15,056
  16,202
  17,394
  18,632
  19,920
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  209
  295
  405
  545
  716
  923
  1,168
  1,452
  1,777
  2,144
  2,552
  3,005
  3,498
  4,033
  4,609
  5,224
  5,877
  6,568
  7,295
  8,059
  8,859
  9,694
  10,566
  11,473
  12,418
  13,400
  14,420
  15,481
  16,583
  17,728
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  204
  222
  309
  419
  559
  731
  938
  1,183
  1,468
  1,793
  2,161
  2,569
  3,022
  3,516
  4,051
  4,628
  5,243
  5,897
  6,588
  7,316
  8,080
  8,881
  9,716
  10,589
  11,497
  12,442
  13,425
  14,445
  15,507
  16,610
  17,755
Operating income, $m
  -36
  11
  21
  34
  51
  72
  97
  127
  162
  202
  247
  298
  354
  414
  480
  551
  626
  707
  791
  881
  975
  1,073
  1,176
  1,283
  1,395
  1,511
  1,631
  1,757
  1,887
  2,023
  2,164
EBITDA, $m
  -30
  14
  25
  39
  57
  79
  105
  137
  174
  216
  263
  317
  375
  439
  509
  584
  663
  748
  838
  933
  1,032
  1,136
  1,245
  1,358
  1,476
  1,599
  1,727
  1,860
  1,998
  2,141
  2,290
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
Earnings before tax, $m
  -37
  10
  20
  32
  48
  67
  90
  118
  149
  186
  227
  275
  325
  380
  440
  505
  573
  646
  724
  805
  890
  979
  1,073
  1,170
  1,271
  1,377
  1,486
  1,600
  1,719
  1,842
  1,970
Tax expense, $m
  1
  3
  5
  9
  13
  18
  24
  32
  40
  50
  61
  74
  88
  103
  119
  136
  155
  175
  195
  217
  240
  264
  290
  316
  343
  372
  401
  432
  464
  497
  532
Net income, $m
  -38
  8
  15
  24
  35
  49
  66
  86
  109
  136
  166
  200
  237
  278
  321
  368
  419
  472
  528
  588
  650
  715
  783
  854
  928
  1,005
  1,085
  1,168
  1,255
  1,344
  1,438

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  61
  127
  179
  247
  332
  437
  563
  712
  886
  1,085
  1,309
  1,560
  1,836
  2,137
  2,464
  2,816
  3,192
  3,591
  4,013
  4,457
  4,924
  5,413
  5,923
  6,455
  7,010
  7,587
  8,187
  8,810
  9,458
  10,132
  10,832
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  59
  127
  179
  247
  332
  437
  563
  712
  886
  1,085
  1,309
  1,560
  1,836
  2,137
  2,464
  2,816
  3,192
  3,591
  4,013
  4,457
  4,924
  5,413
  5,923
  6,455
  7,010
  7,587
  8,187
  8,810
  9,458
  10,132
  10,832
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.847
  1.835
  1.838
  1.838
  1.837
  1.838
  1.838
  1.840
  1.839
  1.839
  1.840
  1.838
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
  1.839
Average production assets, $m
  7
  9
  13
  17
  23
  31
  39
  50
  62
  76
  91
  109
  128
  149
  172
  197
  223
  251
  280
  311
  344
  378
  414
  451
  490
  530
  572
  616
  661
  708
  757
Working capital, $m
  -2
  34
  47
  65
  88
  116
  149
  189
  235
  287
  347
  413
  486
  566
  653
  746
  845
  951
  1,063
  1,180
  1,304
  1,433
  1,569
  1,710
  1,856
  2,009
  2,168
  2,333
  2,505
  2,683
  2,868
Total debt, $m
  21
  28
  57
  94
  141
  199
  269
  351
  447
  557
  681
  819
  971
  1,138
  1,318
  1,512
  1,720
  1,940
  2,173
  2,418
  2,676
  2,946
  3,228
  3,521
  3,827
  4,146
  4,477
  4,821
  5,179
  5,551
  5,937
Total liabilities, $m
  60
  70
  99
  136
  183
  241
  311
  393
  489
  599
  723
  861
  1,013
  1,180
  1,360
  1,554
  1,762
  1,982
  2,215
  2,460
  2,718
  2,988
  3,270
  3,563
  3,869
  4,188
  4,519
  4,863
  5,221
  5,593
  5,979
Total equity, $m
  1
  57
  80
  111
  149
  196
  252
  319
  397
  486
  587
  699
  822
  958
  1,104
  1,262
  1,430
  1,609
  1,798
  1,997
  2,206
  2,425
  2,654
  2,892
  3,140
  3,399
  3,668
  3,947
  4,237
  4,539
  4,853
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  61
  127
  179
  247
  332
  437
  563
  712
  886
  1,085
  1,310
  1,560
  1,835
  2,138
  2,464
  2,816
  3,192
  3,591
  4,013
  4,457
  4,924
  5,413
  5,924
  6,455
  7,009
  7,587
  8,187
  8,810
  9,458
  10,132
  10,832
Debt-to-equity ratio
  21.000
  0.490
  0.710
  0.850
  0.950
  1.020
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.017
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  8
  15
  24
  35
  49
  66
  86
  109
  136
  166
  200
  237
  278
  321
  368
  419
  472
  528
  588
  650
  715
  783
  854
  928
  1,005
  1,085
  1,168
  1,255
  1,344
  1,438
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  11
  18
  28
  40
  56
  74
  96
  121
  150
  183
  219
  259
  303
  350
  401
  456
  514
  575
  639
  707
  778
  852
  929
  1,010
  1,093
  1,180
  1,271
  1,365
  1,462
  1,564
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  40
  46
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  178
  185
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  1
  4
  10
  18
  28
  41
  56
  75
  97
  123
  152
  186
  223
  264
  308
  356
  408
  463
  522
  584
  649
  717
  788
  863
  941
  1,021
  1,106
  1,193
  1,284
  1,379
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  -14
  -3
  -1
  3
  9
  17
  27
  39
  55
  73
  95
  120
  148
  180
  216
  255
  297
  343
  392
  444
  499
  557
  618
  682
  749
  819
  891
  967
  1,045
  1,127
  1,212
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  22
  29
  37
  47
  58
  70
  82
  96
  110
  124
  138
  152
  167
  180
  194
  207
  220
  233
  245
  258
  270
  282
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  22
  29
  37
  47
  58
  70
  82
  96
  110
  124
  138
  152
  167
  180
  194
  207
  220
  233
  245
  258
  270
  282
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  19
  28
  41
  56
  75
  96
  122
  150
  183
  219
  258
  301
  347
  396
  449
  505
  563
  625
  689
  757
  827
  900
  976
  1,055
  1,137
  1,222
  1,311
  1,403
  1,499
  1,598
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  38
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -89
  -101
  -112
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -314
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  5
  10
  18
  28
  40
  55
  73
  94
  118
  146
  177
  212
  250
  291
  336
  384
  436
  490
  548
  608
  671
  737
  807
  879
  954
  1,032
  1,113
  1,197
  1,285
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1
  4
  9
  15
  21
  29
  37
  45
  54
  62
  69
  75
  80
  84
  86
  85
  84
  80
  75
  70
  63
  56
  48
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Versar, Inc. operates as a project management company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Engineering and Construction Management (ECM); Environmental Services (ESG); and Professional Services (PSG). The ECM segment provides design services, such as planning, land use planning, space utilization studies, requirements definition and scoping, programming, cost estimates, infrastructure and traffic planning, privatization studies, and other feasibility studies; and construction management services, including construction oversight, inspection, job site evaluations, and construction documentation and other services. It also offers other related services comprising system optimization and commissioning, scheduling, and quality assurance/control; and actual construction services. This segment serves federal, state, local, international, and commercial clients. The ESG segment provides environmental solutions consisting of remediation and compliance, exposure and risk assessment, natural resources, and unexploded ordnance/military munitions response programs; and air, greenhouse gas, energy, and cultural resources services to federal and state agencies, as well as to commercial customers. The PSG segment offers an array of environmental management, planning, and engineering services to the DoD installations and to the U.S. Department of Commerce. This segment provides energy, water, and solid waste programs for various U.S. Army and U.S. Army Reserve installations; cleaning landfill and disposal sites; facility and utilities integration, water program management, and air quality program management; staff augmentation services; biological and physical sciences support services; logistics program management, operations, budgeting, and transportation support services; and onsite professional services. Versar, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Springfield, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Versar (VSR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 16.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 200%
Total Debt to Equity 2100%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -50.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Return On Total Capital -110.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.9%
Return On Equity -190%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.5%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 1.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
EBITDA Margin -18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Operating Margin -21.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -22%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Net Profit Margin -22.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate -2.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

VSR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Versar. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Versar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 45.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VSR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Versar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Versar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Versar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Versar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSR are equal to 3.8%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Versar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSR is equal to 14.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39 million for Versar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.702 million for Versar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Versar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Versar CEO gets bump to pay package in challenging year   [May-25-17 02:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Versar thwarts one threat of stock exchange delisting but faces another   [May-15-17 12:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Versar, Inc. Announces FY2016 Earnings Conference Call   [Mar-07-17 08:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ Versar, Inc. Announces New Forbearance Agreement   [Nov-01-16 08:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ Versar shares face potential delisting from stock exchange   [Oct-20-16 01:47PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Government Contractor Versar Works to Refinance Debt   [Oct-11-16 04:32PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Versar, Inc. Awarded Up To $20m IDIQ Contract with EPA   [Sep-06-16 08:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ Versar, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results   [May-16-16 08:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ *** DATA NOT AVAILABLE ***   [Jan-29-16 10:21AM  at noodls]
Stock chart of VSR Financial statements of VSR Annual reports of VSR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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