Intrinsic value of Vista Outdoor - VSTO

Previous Close

$23.39

  Intrinsic Value

$39.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+68%

  Value-price divergence*

+231%

Previous close

$23.39

 
Intrinsic value

$39.28

 
Up/down potential

+68%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+231%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSTO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.15
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,547
  2,598
  2,658
  2,726
  2,803
  2,888
  2,981
  3,082
  3,192
  3,311
  3,438
  3,574
  3,719
  3,873
  4,037
  4,211
  4,396
  4,591
  4,798
  5,016
  5,247
  5,490
  5,746
  6,017
  6,302
  6,602
  6,917
  7,250
  7,600
  7,968
  8,355
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,295
  2,346
  2,404
  2,469
  2,541
  2,620
  2,707
  2,800
  2,901
  3,009
  3,039
  3,162
  3,293
  3,433
  3,581
  3,738
  3,904
  4,080
  4,265
  4,461
  4,668
  4,886
  5,116
  5,358
  5,613
  5,882
  6,165
  6,462
  6,775
  7,104
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,754
  2,295
  2,346
  2,404
  2,469
  2,541
  2,620
  2,707
  2,800
  2,901
  3,009
  3,039
  3,162
  3,293
  3,433
  3,581
  3,738
  3,904
  4,080
  4,265
  4,461
  4,668
  4,886
  5,116
  5,358
  5,613
  5,882
  6,165
  6,462
  6,775
  7,104
Operating income, $m
  -207
  303
  312
  322
  334
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  535
  557
  580
  604
  630
  658
  687
  718
  751
  785
  822
  860
  901
  943
  988
  1,035
  1,085
  1,138
  1,193
  1,251
EBITDA, $m
  -113
  432
  442
  454
  467
  481
  496
  513
  531
  551
  572
  595
  619
  645
  672
  701
  732
  764
  799
  835
  873
  914
  957
  1,002
  1,049
  1,099
  1,151
  1,207
  1,265
  1,326
  1,391
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
Earnings before tax, $m
  -251
  265
  273
  282
  291
  302
  314
  327
  341
  357
  373
  476
  495
  514
  535
  557
  581
  606
  632
  660
  690
  721
  753
  788
  824
  862
  903
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,086
Tax expense, $m
  23
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  101
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
Net income, $m
  -274
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  347
  361
  375
  391
  407
  424
  442
  462
  482
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  659
  690
  722
  757
  793

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,977
  2,990
  3,058
  3,137
  3,225
  3,323
  3,430
  3,547
  3,674
  3,810
  3,956
  4,112
  4,279
  4,457
  4,646
  4,846
  5,059
  5,283
  5,521
  5,772
  6,038
  6,317
  6,613
  6,924
  7,251
  7,597
  7,960
  8,343
  8,745
  9,169
  9,614
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,932
  2,990
  3,058
  3,137
  3,225
  3,323
  3,430
  3,547
  3,674
  3,810
  3,956
  4,112
  4,279
  4,457
  4,646
  4,846
  5,059
  5,283
  5,521
  5,772
  6,038
  6,317
  6,613
  6,924
  7,251
  7,597
  7,960
  8,343
  8,745
  9,169
  9,614
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
  0.869
Average production assets, $m
  782
  798
  816
  837
  860
  887
  915
  946
  980
  1,016
  1,055
  1,097
  1,142
  1,189
  1,239
  1,293
  1,350
  1,410
  1,473
  1,540
  1,611
  1,685
  1,764
  1,847
  1,935
  2,027
  2,124
  2,226
  2,333
  2,446
  2,565
Working capital, $m
  764
  766
  784
  804
  827
  852
  879
  909
  942
  977
  1,014
  1,054
  1,097
  1,143
  1,191
  1,242
  1,297
  1,354
  1,415
  1,480
  1,548
  1,620
  1,695
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,041
  2,139
  2,242
  2,350
  2,465
Total debt, $m
  1,121
  1,123
  1,163
  1,208
  1,260
  1,316
  1,379
  1,446
  1,520
  1,599
  1,683
  1,774
  1,871
  1,974
  2,084
  2,200
  2,323
  2,453
  2,591
  2,737
  2,891
  3,053
  3,224
  3,405
  3,595
  3,795
  4,006
  4,228
  4,461
  4,707
  4,965
Total liabilities, $m
  1,732
  1,734
  1,774
  1,819
  1,871
  1,927
  1,990
  2,057
  2,131
  2,210
  2,294
  2,385
  2,482
  2,585
  2,695
  2,811
  2,934
  3,064
  3,202
  3,348
  3,502
  3,664
  3,835
  4,016
  4,206
  4,406
  4,617
  4,839
  5,072
  5,318
  5,576
Total equity, $m
  1,245
  1,256
  1,285
  1,318
  1,355
  1,396
  1,441
  1,490
  1,543
  1,600
  1,662
  1,727
  1,797
  1,872
  1,951
  2,035
  2,125
  2,219
  2,319
  2,424
  2,536
  2,653
  2,777
  2,908
  3,046
  3,191
  3,343
  3,504
  3,673
  3,851
  4,038
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,977
  2,990
  3,059
  3,137
  3,226
  3,323
  3,431
  3,547
  3,674
  3,810
  3,956
  4,112
  4,279
  4,457
  4,646
  4,846
  5,059
  5,283
  5,521
  5,772
  6,038
  6,317
  6,612
  6,924
  7,252
  7,597
  7,960
  8,343
  8,745
  9,169
  9,614
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.900
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.409
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -274
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  347
  361
  375
  391
  407
  424
  442
  462
  482
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  659
  690
  722
  757
  793
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  94
  129
  130
  132
  133
  134
  136
  138
  139
  141
  143
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
Funds from operations, $m
  73
  323
  329
  337
  346
  355
  365
  376
  389
  402
  416
  407
  423
  440
  458
  478
  498
  519
  542
  566
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  740
  775
  811
  850
  890
  933
Change in working capital, $m
  -82
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
Cash from operations, $m
  155
  308
  312
  317
  323
  330
  338
  347
  356
  367
  378
  367
  381
  395
  410
  426
  443
  462
  481
  502
  523
  546
  571
  596
  623
  652
  682
  713
  747
  782
  819
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -549
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -253
Free cash flow, $m
  -394
  249
  250
  251
  254
  257
  261
  265
  271
  277
  284
  268
  276
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  354
  368
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  451
  34
  40
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  246
  258
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  288
  34
  40
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  246
  258
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -107
  283
  290
  297
  305
  314
  323
  333
  344
  356
  368
  359
  373
  388
  404
  421
  439
  458
  479
  500
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
  654
  685
  717
  751
  787
  825
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  415
  -24
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  272
  261
  264
  268
  272
  278
  284
  291
  299
  307
  293
  303
  313
  325
  337
  350
  364
  379
  394
  411
  428
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  637
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  253
  224
  208
  192
  176
  161
  145
  130
  116
  102
  82
  71
  61
  51
  42
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Vista Outdoor Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets consumer products for the outdoor sports and recreation markets worldwide. The company’s Shooting Sports segment designs, develops, produces, and sources ammunition for the hunting and sport shooting enthusiast markets, as well as for local law enforcement, the United States government, and international markets under the Federal Premium, Speer, American Eagle, Blazer, CCI, Estate Cartridge, Stevens, Fusion, Savage Arms, Savage Range Systems, Force on Force, and Independence brands; and provides firearms products, such as centerfire rifles, rimfire rifles, shotguns, and range systems. Its Outdoor Products segment offers archery/hunting accessories, such as hunting arrows, game calls, hunting blinds, game cameras, and waterfowl decoys; eyewear and sport protection products comprising safety and protective eyewear, fashion and sports eyewear, and helmets; golf products, including laser rangefinders; and hydration products consisting of hydration packs and water bottles. This segment also offers optics products, such as binoculars, riflescopes, and telescopes; shooting accessories, including reloading equipment, clay targets, and premium gun care products; tactical products comprising holsters, duty gear, bags, and packs; and water sports products, such as stand up paddle boards. It provides its products under the Alliant Powder, Bee Stinger, BLACKHAWK!, Bollé, Bushnell, Butler Creek, CamelBak, Cébé, Champion Target, Eagle, Final Approach, Gold Tip, GunMate, Gunslick Pro, Hoppe's, Jimmy Styks, M-Pro 7, Millett, Night Optics, Outers, Primos, RCBS, Redfield, Serengeti, Simmons, Stoney Point, Tasco, Uncle Mike's, and Weaver brand names. The company sells its products to outdoor enthusiasts, hunters and recreational shooters, athletes, and law enforcement and military professionals through various mass, specialty, and independent retailers. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Farmington, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vista Outdoor (VSTO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 116.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 87.5%
Total Debt to Equity 90%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Total Capital -11.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Equity -18.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
EBITDA Margin -6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin -8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Net Profit Margin -10.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate -9.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

VSTO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSTO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2547 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vista Outdoor. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Vista Outdoor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSTO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for VSTO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vista Outdoor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vista Outdoor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSTO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSTO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Vista Outdoor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vista Outdoor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSTO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSTO are equal to 30.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vista Outdoor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSTO is equal to 29.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1245 million for Vista Outdoor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.983 million for Vista Outdoor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vista Outdoor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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Stock chart of VSTO Financial statements of VSTO Annual reports of VSTO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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