Intrinsic value of WageWorks - WAGE

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$73.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$73.00

 
Intrinsic value

$161.65

 
Up/down potential

+121%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WAGE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.28
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  365
  444
  533
  632
  740
  859
  986
  1,123
  1,269
  1,424
  1,587
  1,759
  1,939
  2,127
  2,324
  2,529
  2,742
  2,964
  3,195
  3,435
  3,684
  3,943
  4,212
  4,492
  4,783
  5,086
  5,401
  5,730
  6,072
  6,428
  6,800
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  384
  455
  534
  620
  715
  816
  926
  1,042
  1,165
  1,295
  1,403
  1,546
  1,697
  1,854
  2,017
  2,187
  2,364
  2,548
  2,740
  2,938
  3,145
  3,360
  3,583
  3,815
  4,057
  4,308
  4,570
  4,843
  5,127
  5,424
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  332
  384
  455
  534
  620
  715
  816
  926
  1,042
  1,165
  1,295
  1,403
  1,546
  1,697
  1,854
  2,017
  2,187
  2,364
  2,548
  2,740
  2,938
  3,145
  3,360
  3,583
  3,815
  4,057
  4,308
  4,570
  4,843
  5,127
  5,424
Operating income, $m
  33
  60
  78
  98
  120
  144
  170
  198
  227
  258
  291
  356
  392
  430
  470
  512
  555
  600
  647
  695
  746
  798
  852
  909
  968
  1,029
  1,093
  1,160
  1,229
  1,301
  1,376
EBITDA, $m
  75
  113
  135
  160
  188
  218
  250
  285
  322
  361
  403
  446
  492
  540
  590
  642
  696
  752
  811
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,069
  1,140
  1,214
  1,291
  1,371
  1,454
  1,541
  1,632
  1,726
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  9
  1
  7
  12
  18
  25
  33
  40
  49
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  250
  268
  286
  305
  324
  345
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  51
  77
  92
  108
  126
  145
  165
  187
  210
  234
  289
  315
  343
  372
  402
  434
  467
  500
  536
  572
  611
  650
  691
  734
  779
  825
  874
  924
  977
  1,031
Tax expense, $m
  12
  14
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  50
  57
  63
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  223
  236
  249
  264
  278
Net income, $m
  20
  38
  56
  67
  79
  92
  106
  120
  136
  153
  171
  211
  230
  251
  272
  294
  317
  341
  365
  391
  418
  446
  475
  505
  536
  569
  602
  638
  675
  713
  753

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  678
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,343
  809
  971
  1,151
  1,349
  1,564
  1,796
  2,046
  2,311
  2,593
  2,891
  3,203
  3,531
  3,875
  4,233
  4,606
  4,995
  5,399
  5,820
  6,256
  6,710
  7,182
  7,672
  8,182
  8,712
  9,264
  9,838
  10,436
  11,060
  11,709
  12,387
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  665
  809
  971
  1,151
  1,349
  1,564
  1,796
  2,046
  2,311
  2,593
  2,891
  3,203
  3,531
  3,875
  4,233
  4,606
  4,995
  5,399
  5,820
  6,256
  6,710
  7,182
  7,672
  8,182
  8,712
  9,264
  9,838
  10,436
  11,060
  11,709
  12,387
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
Average production assets, $m
  182
  222
  266
  315
  370
  428
  492
  560
  633
  710
  792
  878
  967
  1,061
  1,160
  1,262
  1,368
  1,479
  1,594
  1,714
  1,838
  1,968
  2,102
  2,242
  2,387
  2,538
  2,695
  2,859
  3,030
  3,208
  3,393
Working capital, $m
  114
  -686
  -824
  -976
  -1,144
  -1,327
  -1,524
  -1,735
  -1,961
  -2,200
  -2,452
  -2,717
  -2,995
  -3,286
  -3,590
  -3,907
  -4,237
  -4,580
  -4,936
  -5,307
  -5,692
  -6,092
  -6,508
  -6,940
  -7,390
  -7,858
  -8,345
  -8,852
  -9,381
  -9,932
  -10,507
Total debt, $m
  249
  42
  188
  350
  528
  722
  931
  1,155
  1,394
  1,648
  1,916
  2,197
  2,492
  2,801
  3,124
  3,460
  3,809
  4,173
  4,552
  4,945
  5,353
  5,778
  6,219
  6,678
  7,155
  7,652
  8,169
  8,707
  9,268
  9,852
  10,462
Total liabilities, $m
  935
  728
  874
  1,036
  1,214
  1,408
  1,617
  1,841
  2,080
  2,334
  2,602
  2,883
  3,178
  3,487
  3,810
  4,146
  4,495
  4,859
  5,238
  5,631
  6,039
  6,464
  6,905
  7,364
  7,841
  8,338
  8,855
  9,393
  9,954
  10,538
  11,148
Total equity, $m
  408
  81
  97
  115
  135
  156
  180
  205
  231
  259
  289
  320
  353
  387
  423
  461
  499
  540
  582
  626
  671
  718
  767
  818
  871
  926
  984
  1,044
  1,106
  1,171
  1,239
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,343
  809
  971
  1,151
  1,349
  1,564
  1,797
  2,046
  2,311
  2,593
  2,891
  3,203
  3,531
  3,874
  4,233
  4,607
  4,994
  5,399
  5,820
  6,257
  6,710
  7,182
  7,672
  8,182
  8,712
  9,264
  9,839
  10,437
  11,060
  11,709
  12,387
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.610
  0.520
  1.940
  3.040
  3.910
  4.610
  5.180
  5.650
  6.030
  6.350
  6.630
  6.860
  7.060
  7.230
  7.380
  7.510
  7.630
  7.730
  7.820
  7.900
  7.980
  8.040
  8.110
  8.160
  8.210
  8.260
  8.300
  8.340
  8.380
  8.410
  8.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.406
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  38
  56
  67
  79
  92
  106
  120
  136
  153
  171
  211
  230
  251
  272
  294
  317
  341
  365
  391
  418
  446
  475
  505
  536
  569
  602
  638
  675
  713
  753
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  53
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  90
  100
  109
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  177
  190
  203
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
Funds from operations, $m
  460
  90
  113
  129
  147
  166
  186
  208
  231
  256
  282
  301
  330
  360
  391
  424
  458
  493
  530
  568
  607
  649
  691
  736
  782
  830
  880
  932
  987
  1,044
  1,103
Change in working capital, $m
  195
  -122
  -137
  -153
  -168
  -183
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -432
  -450
  -468
  -487
  -507
  -529
  -551
  -575
Cash from operations, $m
  265
  264
  251
  282
  314
  348
  383
  419
  457
  495
  534
  567
  608
  651
  695
  741
  787
  836
  886
  938
  992
  1,049
  1,107
  1,168
  1,232
  1,298
  1,367
  1,440
  1,515
  1,595
  1,677
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -82
  -90
  -100
  -109
  -120
  -130
  -141
  -152
  -164
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -262
  -278
  -295
  -312
  -331
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -283
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -87
  -97
  -108
  -119
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -168
  -180
  -194
  -207
  -222
  -236
  -252
  -267
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -337
  -357
  -376
  -397
  -419
  -442
  -466
  -490
  -517
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  205
  183
  205
  228
  251
  275
  300
  326
  352
  380
  399
  428
  457
  488
  519
  551
  584
  619
  654
  691
  730
  770
  812
  855
  901
  948
  998
  1,050
  1,104
  1,161
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  170
  -207
  146
  162
  178
  194
  209
  224
  239
  254
  268
  282
  295
  309
  322
  336
  350
  364
  378
  393
  409
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  517
  538
  561
  585
  610
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  196
  -207
  146
  162
  178
  194
  209
  224
  239
  254
  268
  282
  295
  309
  322
  336
  350
  364
  378
  393
  409
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  517
  538
  561
  585
  610
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  177
  -2
  329
  367
  406
  445
  485
  525
  565
  606
  647
  681
  723
  766
  810
  855
  901
  948
  997
  1,047
  1,100
  1,155
  1,211
  1,271
  1,333
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,611
  1,689
  1,771
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -71
  -351
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  678
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  325
  313
  349
  386
  423
  461
  500
  539
  578
  618
  650
  690
  732
  774
  817
  862
  908
  955
  1,004
  1,055
  1,107
  1,162
  1,220
  1,280
  1,342
  1,408
  1,477
  1,549
  1,624
  1,703
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  312
  287
  304
  318
  328
  335
  338
  337
  332
  324
  309
  295
  278
  260
  240
  219
  197
  176
  155
  134
  115
  96
  80
  65
  52
  41
  32
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

WageWorks, Inc. engages in administering consumer-directed benefits (CDBs), which empower employees to save money on taxes, as well as provides corporate tax advantages for employers in the United States. It administers CDBs, including pre-tax spending accounts, such as health savings accounts (HSAs), health and dependent care flexible spending accounts (FSAs), and health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs), as well as offers commuter benefit services, including transit and parking programs, wellness programs, Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, and other employee benefits. As of January 31, 2017, it had approximately 6.5 million employee participants from approximately 100,000 employer clients. WageWorks, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is based in San Mateo, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WageWorks (WAGE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 134.7
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 6.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 61%
Total Debt to Equity 61%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

WAGE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WAGE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $365 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WageWorks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of WageWorks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WAGE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WAGE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WageWorks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WageWorks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WAGE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WAGE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for WageWorks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WageWorks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WAGE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WAGE are equal to 49.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WageWorks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WAGE is equal to -154.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $408 million for WageWorks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.344 million for WageWorks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WageWorks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to WageWorks, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ WageWorks Inc. Sales Jump 22%   [08:35AM  Motley Fool]
▶ WageWorks Inc. Sales Jump 22%   [08:35AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ WageWorks beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-23-17 06:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ WageWorks to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-03-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Wageworks Inc (WAGE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 04:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Acquisitions to Fuel Growth at WageWorks Inc.   [07:39AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Motley Fool Money: 3 Stocks on Our Radar This Week   [May-19-16 04:29PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of WAGE Financial statements of WAGE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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