Intrinsic value of Wesco Aircraft Holdings - WAIR

Previous Close

$9.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

+42%

Previous close

$9.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.75

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+42%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WAIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,477
  1,507
  1,541
  1,581
  1,625
  1,675
  1,729
  1,787
  1,851
  1,920
  1,994
  2,072
  2,156
  2,246
  2,341
  2,442
  2,549
  2,662
  2,782
  2,909
  3,043
  3,184
  3,332
  3,489
  3,654
  3,828
  4,011
  4,204
  4,407
  4,620
  4,845
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,712
  1,750
  1,793
  1,842
  1,896
  1,956
  2,020
  2,090
  2,165
  2,246
  2,275
  2,367
  2,466
  2,570
  2,681
  2,798
  2,923
  3,054
  3,193
  3,340
  3,495
  3,658
  3,830
  4,011
  4,202
  4,403
  4,615
  4,838
  5,072
  5,318
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,319
  1,712
  1,750
  1,793
  1,842
  1,896
  1,956
  2,020
  2,090
  2,165
  2,246
  2,275
  2,367
  2,466
  2,570
  2,681
  2,798
  2,923
  3,054
  3,193
  3,340
  3,495
  3,658
  3,830
  4,011
  4,202
  4,403
  4,615
  4,838
  5,072
  5,318
Operating income, $m
  159
  -205
  -209
  -212
  -217
  -222
  -227
  -233
  -239
  -246
  -253
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -474
EBITDA, $m
  187
  -139
  -142
  -146
  -150
  -155
  -160
  -165
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -407
  -427
  -448
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
Earnings before tax, $m
  126
  -236
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -350
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
Tax expense, $m
  35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  91
  -236
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -350
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,949
  1,909
  1,953
  2,004
  2,060
  2,122
  2,191
  2,265
  2,346
  2,433
  2,527
  2,627
  2,733
  2,847
  2,967
  3,095
  3,231
  3,375
  3,526
  3,687
  3,856
  4,035
  4,223
  4,422
  4,631
  4,852
  5,084
  5,328
  5,586
  5,856
  6,141
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,872
  1,909
  1,953
  2,004
  2,060
  2,122
  2,191
  2,265
  2,346
  2,433
  2,527
  2,627
  2,733
  2,847
  2,967
  3,095
  3,231
  3,375
  3,526
  3,687
  3,856
  4,035
  4,223
  4,422
  4,631
  4,852
  5,084
  5,328
  5,586
  5,856
  6,141
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
  0.789
Average production assets, $m
  228
  232
  237
  243
  250
  258
  266
  275
  285
  296
  307
  319
  332
  346
  361
  376
  393
  410
  428
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  647
  679
  712
  746
Working capital, $m
  835
  753
  771
  790
  813
  837
  864
  894
  926
  960
  997
  1,036
  1,078
  1,123
  1,171
  1,221
  1,275
  1,331
  1,391
  1,454
  1,521
  1,592
  1,666
  1,745
  1,827
  1,914
  2,006
  2,102
  2,204
  2,310
  2,422
Total debt, $m
  837
  857
  882
  911
  943
  979
  1,018
  1,060
  1,106
  1,156
  1,209
  1,266
  1,326
  1,391
  1,459
  1,532
  1,609
  1,691
  1,777
  1,869
  1,965
  2,067
  2,174
  2,287
  2,406
  2,532
  2,664
  2,803
  2,949
  3,103
  3,265
Total liabilities, $m
  1,066
  1,086
  1,111
  1,140
  1,172
  1,208
  1,247
  1,289
  1,335
  1,385
  1,438
  1,495
  1,555
  1,620
  1,688
  1,761
  1,838
  1,920
  2,006
  2,098
  2,194
  2,296
  2,403
  2,516
  2,635
  2,761
  2,893
  3,032
  3,178
  3,332
  3,494
Total equity, $m
  883
  823
  842
  864
  888
  915
  944
  976
  1,011
  1,049
  1,089
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,334
  1,393
  1,454
  1,520
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,820
  1,906
  1,996
  2,091
  2,191
  2,297
  2,407
  2,524
  2,647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,949
  1,909
  1,953
  2,004
  2,060
  2,123
  2,191
  2,265
  2,346
  2,434
  2,527
  2,627
  2,733
  2,847
  2,967
  3,095
  3,231
  3,374
  3,526
  3,687
  3,856
  4,035
  4,223
  4,422
  4,631
  4,852
  5,084
  5,329
  5,585
  5,856
  6,141
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.948
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431
  0.431

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  -236
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -270
  -278
  -287
  -296
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -350
  -366
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  66
  66
  66
  67
  67
  67
  67
  68
  68
  69
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  -170
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -443
  -464
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -563
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  50
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -505
  -530
  -556
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -675
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -231
  -240
  -251
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -734
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -112
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  252
  259
  267
  275
  283
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  290
  304
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  440
  461
  483
  507
  532
  558
  586
  615
  645
  677
  711
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -108
  273
  284
  296
  307
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  389
  347
  365
  382
  401
  421
  441
  464
  486
  510
  536
  563
  590
  620
  651
  683
  718
  754
  791
  831
  873
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  77
  79
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -65
  -252
  -259
  -267
  -275
  -283
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -324
  -336
  -290
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -615
  -645
  -677
  -711
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -99
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -216
  -224
  -232
  -242
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -472
  -495
  -520
  -545
  -572
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -92
  -155
  -145
  -136
  -126
  -116
  -106
  -97
  -87
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -51
  -43
  -36
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.6
  60.2
  46.6
  36.0
  27.8
  21.5
  16.6
  12.8
  9.9
  7.6
  6.1
  4.9
  3.9
  3.1
  2.5
  2.0
  1.6
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. is a distributor and provider of supply chain management services to the global aerospace industry. The Company operates through two segments: North America and Rest of World. As of September 30, 2016, the Company supplied over 565,000 active stock-keeping units (SKUs), including C-class hardware, chemicals, electronic components, bearings, tools and machined parts. The Company's products include Hardware, Chemicals, Electronic Components, Bearings and Other Products. Its Services include Quality Assurance, Kitting and JIT Supply Chain Management. It caters to commercial, military and general aviation sectors, including the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their subcontractors, through which it supports various Western aircraft programs, and also sells products to airline-affiliated and independent maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) providers. It also services industrial customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wesco Aircraft Holdings (WAIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 77
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 94.7%
Total Debt to Equity 94.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 27.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

WAIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WAIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1477 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wesco Aircraft Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Wesco Aircraft Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WAIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for WAIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wesco Aircraft Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wesco Aircraft Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WAIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WAIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Wesco Aircraft Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wesco Aircraft Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WAIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WAIR are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 29.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wesco Aircraft Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WAIR is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $883 million for Wesco Aircraft Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 100.816 million for Wesco Aircraft Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wesco Aircraft Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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Financial statements of WAIR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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