Intrinsic value of 500.com ADR - WBAI

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$10.72

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WBAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -85.71
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  165
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  420
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  487
  499
  511
  524
  537
  551
  564
  578
  593
  608
  623
  638
  654
  671
  688
  705
  722
  740
Total operating expenses, $m
  35
  377
  386
  396
  406
  415
  425
  437
  447
  459
  470
  475
  487
  500
  512
  525
  539
  552
  567
  581
  596
  611
  627
  643
  659
  676
  694
  712
  730
  749
  768
Operating income, $m
  -33
  -275
  -282
  -289
  -295
  -302
  -309
  -315
  -322
  -328
  -335
  -335
  -341
  -347
  -354
  -360
  -366
  -372
  -378
  -384
  -390
  -396
  -401
  -407
  -412
  -417
  -422
  -427
  -432
  -436
  -440
EBITDA, $m
  -30
  -259
  -266
  -273
  -279
  -285
  -292
  -298
  -304
  -310
  -316
  -322
  -328
  -334
  -339
  -345
  -351
  -356
  -361
  -366
  -371
  -376
  -381
  -385
  -390
  -394
  -398
  -402
  -405
  -408
  -411
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  -30
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -298
  -305
  -312
  -319
  -326
  -333
  -340
  -340
  -347
  -354
  -361
  -368
  -375
  -382
  -389
  -396
  -402
  -409
  -416
  -422
  -429
  -435
  -442
  -448
  -454
  -460
  -466
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -29
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -298
  -305
  -312
  -319
  -326
  -333
  -340
  -340
  -347
  -354
  -361
  -368
  -375
  -382
  -389
  -396
  -402
  -409
  -416
  -422
  -429
  -435
  -442
  -448
  -454
  -460
  -466

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  231
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  300
  427
  437
  448
  460
  474
  490
  506
  524
  544
  565
  587
  611
  636
  663
  692
  722
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,373
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  69
  427
  437
  448
  460
  474
  490
  506
  524
  544
  565
  587
  611
  636
  663
  692
  722
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,373
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.029
  0.239
  0.238
  0.239
  0.239
  0.238
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.240
  0.238
  0.240
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
  0.239
Average production assets, $m
  27
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
Working capital, $m
  217
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -371
Total debt, $m
  6
  53
  61
  69
  79
  90
  101
  114
  128
  142
  158
  175
  193
  212
  233
  254
  277
  302
  327
  355
  383
  414
  446
  479
  515
  552
  591
  633
  676
  722
  770
Total liabilities, $m
  53
  323
  331
  339
  349
  360
  371
  384
  398
  412
  428
  445
  463
  482
  503
  524
  547
  572
  597
  625
  653
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
  903
  946
  992
  1,040
Total equity, $m
  247
  103
  106
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  199
  209
  218
  228
  239
  251
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  332
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  300
  426
  437
  447
  460
  475
  490
  507
  525
  544
  565
  587
  611
  636
  663
  691
  722
  755
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,036
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.024
  0.520
  0.580
  0.640
  0.710
  0.780
  0.850
  0.930
  1.000
  1.080
  1.160
  1.230
  1.310
  1.380
  1.450
  1.520
  1.590
  1.650
  1.720
  1.780
  1.840
  1.900
  1.950
  2.000
  2.050
  2.100
  2.150
  2.200
  2.240
  2.280
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -298
  -305
  -312
  -319
  -326
  -333
  -340
  -340
  -347
  -354
  -361
  -368
  -375
  -382
  -389
  -396
  -402
  -409
  -416
  -422
  -429
  -435
  -442
  -448
  -454
  -460
  -466
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -261
  -268
  -275
  -281
  -288
  -295
  -302
  -308
  -315
  -321
  -328
  -334
  -341
  -347
  -353
  -359
  -366
  -372
  -378
  -384
  -390
  -395
  -401
  -407
  -412
  -417
  -422
  -427
  -432
  -436
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -159
  -265
  -272
  -278
  -284
  -291
  -297
  -303
  -309
  -316
  -322
  -328
  -334
  -340
  -345
  -351
  -357
  -363
  -368
  -374
  -379
  -384
  -389
  -394
  -399
  -403
  -407
  -412
  -415
  -419
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  73
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  -171
  -278
  -285
  -292
  -299
  -306
  -313
  -320
  -327
  -334
  -341
  -349
  -356
  -363
  -370
  -377
  -384
  -391
  -397
  -404
  -411
  -418
  -425
  -431
  -438
  -444
  -451
  -457
  -463
  -469
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -17
  0
  273
  279
  286
  292
  298
  305
  311
  317
  324
  330
  336
  342
  349
  355
  361
  367
  373
  379
  385
  391
  396
  402
  407
  412
  418
  423
  427
  432
  436
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  6
  280
  288
  296
  303
  310
  318
  325
  332
  340
  347
  354
  361
  369
  377
  384
  391
  399
  406
  414
  421
  428
  436
  442
  449
  457
  464
  471
  478
  484
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  -164
  -270
  -276
  -283
  -289
  -295
  -301
  -307
  -313
  -319
  -325
  -330
  -336
  -342
  -348
  -354
  -359
  -365
  -370
  -376
  -381
  -386
  -391
  -396
  -401
  -405
  -409
  -413
  -417
  -421
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,667
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,501
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,439
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  21.0
  4.4
  0.9
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

500.com Limited provides online sports lottery services in the People’s Republic of China. It operates as an aggregator and processor of lottery purchase orders from its registered user accounts. The company offers a suite of online lottery services, information, user tools, and virtual community venues. Its lottery sales services comprise individual lottery purchase, lottery pool purchase, automatic tag-along purchase, recurring purchase, and locked-in lottery number purchase services. The company provides its services through its mobile applications to mobile users, as well as through its online platform. As of December 31, 2015, it had 59.7 million registered user accounts. The company was formerly known as 500wan.com Limited and changed its name to 500.com Limited in October 2013. 500.com Limited was founded in 2001 and is based in Shenzhen, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  500.com ADR (WBAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -147.3
Price to Sales 2135.9
Price to Book 17.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -251.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -170.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -85.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 2.4%
Total Debt to Equity 2.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.3%
EBITDA Margin -1350%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -535.3%
Operating Margin -1650%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -646%
Pre-Tax Margin -1500%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -588.1%
Net Profit Margin -1450%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -586.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

WBAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WBAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $100 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 500.com ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of 500.com ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WBAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WBAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 500.com ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 500.com ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WBAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $353 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WBAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 500.com ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 500.com ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WBAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WBAI are equal to 144%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 500.com ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WBAI is equal to -113%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1768 million for 500.com ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.302 million for 500.com ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 500.com ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 500.com Limited to Acquire The Multi Group Ltd.   [May-26-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to 500.com Ltd. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 01:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to 500.com Ltd. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to 500.com Ltd. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 500.com Limited Announces Change of Board Composition   [Jan-22-17 02:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 500.com Limited Announces Strategic Investment in Qufan   [Nov-25-16 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Chinese Stocks That This China-Focused Investor Loves   [Oct-24  02:54PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Stocks Slide At Open, But Trim Losses   [Jul-27  10:31AM  at Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 500.com (WBAI) Stock Climbing as Chinas Market Steadies   [Jul-09  03:53PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Top Chinese Stocks Massively Higher in New York   [11:25AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ 500.com (WBAI) Stock Plunging Amid Chinese Market Woes   [Jul-07  02:42PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Stocks Hit New Session Lows; Taser Triggers Sell Signal   [Jun-29  11:56AM  at Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 500.com (WBAI) Stock Falls After Deutsche Bank Downgrade   [May-21  11:06AM  at TheStreet]
▶ One Reason 500.com (WBAI) Stock Is Up Today   [Apr-08  11:17AM  at TheStreet]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:52PM  Briefing.com]
Stock chart of WBAI Financial statements of WBAI Annual reports of WBAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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