Intrinsic value of WD-40 - WDFC

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$104.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$104.15

 
Intrinsic value

$64.20

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WDFC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.79
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  381
  389
  398
  408
  419
  432
  446
  461
  478
  495
  514
  535
  556
  579
  604
  630
  658
  687
  718
  750
  785
  821
  860
  900
  943
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,137
  1,192
  1,250
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  321
  328
  337
  346
  356
  367
  379
  392
  407
  422
  429
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  551
  575
  602
  629
  658
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  309
  321
  328
  337
  346
  356
  367
  379
  392
  407
  422
  429
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  551
  575
  602
  629
  658
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
Operating income, $m
  71
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
EBITDA, $m
  77
  79
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
Tax expense, $m
  20
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Net income, $m
  53
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  340
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  416
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  723
  758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  231
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  416
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  723
  758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.649
  1.648
  1.651
  1.652
  1.650
  1.649
  1.652
  1.646
  1.648
  1.650
  1.647
  1.651
  1.650
  1.650
  1.650
  1.649
  1.649
  1.651
  1.651
  1.648
  1.649
  1.649
  1.651
  1.648
  1.649
  1.649
  1.648
  1.647
  1.650
  1.649
  1.649
Average production assets, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Working capital, $m
  150
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
Total debt, $m
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  283
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  395
  417
  441
  465
  492
  519
  548
  578
Total liabilities, $m
  199
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  473
  495
  519
  543
  570
  597
  626
  656
Total equity, $m
  140
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  339
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  279
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  627
  658
  689
  723
  758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.871
  3.990
  4.050
  4.110
  4.170
  4.240
  4.310
  4.380
  4.450
  4.520
  4.600
  4.670
  4.740
  4.810
  4.870
  4.940
  5.000
  5.070
  5.130
  5.180
  5.240
  5.290
  5.350
  5.400
  5.440
  5.490
  5.540
  5.580
  5.620
  5.660
  5.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  61
  55
  58
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  69
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  57
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  18
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  165
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
  158
  165
  173
  182
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  159
  54
  53
  52
  50
  49
  47
  45
  43
  40
  37
  34
  32
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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WD-40 Company develops and sells maintenance products, and homecare and cleaning products. It offers multi-purpose maintenance products, including aerosol sprays, non-aerosol trigger sprays, and in liquid form under the WD-40 Multi-Use brand for various consumer uses; and specialty maintenance products that comprise penetrants, degreasers, corrosion inhibitors, lubricants, and rust removers under the WD-40 Specialist brand name. The company also provides products under the WD-40 Bike product brand consisting of wet and dry chain lubricants, heavy-duty degreasers, and foaming wash products for avid and recreational cyclists, bike enthusiasts, and mechanics; multi-purpose and specialty drip oils, and spray lubricant products, as well as other specialty maintenance products under the 3-IN-ONE brand; and professional spray maintenance products and lubricants for the bike market under the GT85 brand. In addition, it offers liquid mildew stain removers and automatic toilet bowl cleaners under the X-14 brand; automatic toilet bowl cleaners under the 2000 Flushes brand; and a range of room and rug deodorizers sold as powder, aerosol quick-dry foam, and trigger spray products under the Carpet Fresh and No Vac brands. Further, the company provides aerosol carpet stain removers, and liquid trigger carpet stain and odor eliminator products under the Spot Shot brand; carpet and household cleaners, and rug and room deodorizers under the 1001 brand; and hand cleaner products under the Lava and Solvol brand names. It offers products primarily through mass retail and home center stores, warehouse club stores, grocery stores, hardware stores, automotive parts outlets, sport retailers, independent bike dealers, online retailers, and industrial distributors and suppliers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WD-40 (WDFC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 10.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 26
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 87.1%
Total Debt to Equity 87.1%
Interest Coverage 38
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Return On Total Capital 20.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Return On Equity 35.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Payout Ratio 45.3%

WDFC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WDFC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $381 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WD-40. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of WD-40. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WDFC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WDFC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WD-40, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WD-40.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WDFC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WDFC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for WD-40.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WD-40. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WDFC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WDFC are equal to 8.5%.

Life of production assets of 21.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WD-40 operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WDFC is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $140 million for WD-40 - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.135 million for WD-40 is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WD-40 at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Top Stocks You've Been Overlooking   [Apr-24-17 10:40AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to WD-40 Co. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:47AM  Briefing.com]
▶ WD-40 Stock Falls Premarket on Earnings Miss   [09:19AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ WD-40 misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-06-17 04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ WD-40 Company Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-21-17 11:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to WD-40 Co. : January 25, 2017   [Jan-25-17 01:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ WD-40 Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Wednesday   [Jan-15-17 01:51PM  Investopedia]
▶ WD-40 Plunges on Soft Q1 Earnings   [09:50AM  at Investopedia]
▶ WD-40 Cranks Its Dividend 17% Higher   [Dec-14-16 05:19PM  at Investopedia]
▶ WD-40 Company Announces Board Changes   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love WD-40 Company (WDFC)?   [12:46AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ WD-40 Company Increases Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-13-16 01:11PM  PR Newswire]
▶ GameStop, Adobe and More Pitched by Leading Investors in Toronto   [Nov-03-16 05:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ WD-40 Company Reports Mixed Q4 Results (WDFC)   [Oct-20-16 10:21AM  at Investopedia]
▶ WD-40 Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Wednesday (WDFC)   [09:16AM  at Investopedia]
▶ WD-40 Company Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-11-16 11:50AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why It's Time to Buy WD-40 Now   [Apr-12-16 06:49AM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of WDFC Financial statements of WDFC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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