Intrinsic value of Waddell&Reed Financial - WDR

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$19.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WDR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -18.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,239
  1,264
  1,293
  1,326
  1,363
  1,405
  1,450
  1,499
  1,553
  1,610
  1,672
  1,738
  1,809
  1,884
  1,964
  2,049
  2,138
  2,233
  2,334
  2,440
  2,552
  2,671
  2,795
  2,927
  3,065
  3,211
  3,365
  3,527
  3,697
  3,876
  4,064
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  446
  456
  467
  480
  494
  510
  527
  545
  565
  587
  599
  623
  649
  676
  705
  736
  769
  804
  840
  879
  920
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,214
  1,273
  1,335
  1,400
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  595
  609
  625
  640
  656
  673
  689
  707
  724
  742
  761
  780
  800
  820
  840
  861
  883
  905
  927
  950
  974
  999
  1,023
  1,049
  1,075
  1,102
  1,130
  1,158
  1,187
  1,217
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,003
  1,041
  1,065
  1,092
  1,120
  1,150
  1,183
  1,216
  1,252
  1,289
  1,329
  1,360
  1,403
  1,449
  1,496
  1,545
  1,597
  1,652
  1,709
  1,767
  1,829
  1,894
  1,962
  2,031
  2,105
  2,181
  2,261
  2,344
  2,431
  2,522
  2,617
Operating income, $m
  236
  223
  228
  234
  243
  254
  267
  283
  301
  321
  343
  379
  406
  436
  468
  503
  541
  582
  626
  673
  723
  777
  834
  895
  961
  1,030
  1,104
  1,183
  1,266
  1,354
  1,448
EBITDA, $m
  254
  245
  249
  256
  265
  277
  290
  306
  325
  345
  368
  393
  421
  452
  485
  520
  559
  601
  645
  693
  745
  799
  858
  920
  987
  1,057
  1,133
  1,212
  1,297
  1,387
  1,482
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  10
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  225
  213
  222
  228
  236
  246
  259
  274
  290
  309
  331
  365
  391
  419
  450
  483
  520
  559
  600
  645
  694
  745
  800
  859
  922
  988
  1,059
  1,135
  1,215
  1,300
  1,390
Tax expense, $m
  77
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  84
  89
  99
  106
  113
  121
  131
  140
  151
  162
  174
  187
  201
  216
  232
  249
  267
  286
  306
  328
  351
  375
Net income, $m
  147
  156
  162
  166
  172
  180
  189
  200
  212
  226
  241
  266
  285
  306
  328
  353
  379
  408
  438
  471
  506
  544
  584
  627
  673
  721
  773
  828
  887
  949
  1,015

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  884
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,406
  532
  545
  559
  574
  592
  611
  632
  654
  678
  704
  732
  762
  794
  827
  863
  901
  941
  983
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,177
  1,233
  1,291
  1,353
  1,417
  1,486
  1,557
  1,633
  1,712
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  522
  532
  545
  559
  574
  592
  611
  632
  654
  678
  704
  732
  762
  794
  827
  863
  901
  941
  983
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,177
  1,233
  1,291
  1,353
  1,417
  1,486
  1,557
  1,633
  1,712
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.374
  2.376
  2.372
  2.372
  2.375
  2.373
  2.373
  2.372
  2.375
  2.375
  2.375
  2.374
  2.374
  2.373
  2.375
  2.374
  2.373
  2.373
  2.374
  2.374
  2.374
  2.374
  2.375
  2.374
  2.374
  2.373
  2.375
  2.373
  2.374
  2.374
  2.374
Average production assets, $m
  150
  153
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
Working capital, $m
  795
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
Total debt, $m
  190
  107
  118
  131
  145
  161
  178
  196
  217
  239
  262
  287
  314
  342
  373
  405
  439
  475
  513
  553
  596
  640
  688
  738
  790
  845
  904
  965
  1,030
  1,097
  1,169
Total liabilities, $m
  562
  479
  490
  503
  517
  533
  550
  568
  589
  611
  634
  659
  686
  714
  745
  777
  811
  847
  885
  925
  968
  1,012
  1,060
  1,110
  1,162
  1,217
  1,276
  1,337
  1,402
  1,469
  1,541
Total equity, $m
  844
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,406
  532
  544
  559
  574
  592
  611
  631
  654
  679
  704
  732
  762
  793
  828
  863
  901
  941
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,124
  1,178
  1,233
  1,291
  1,352
  1,418
  1,486
  1,558
  1,632
  1,712
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.225
  2.010
  2.170
  2.340
  2.520
  2.710
  2.910
  3.110
  3.310
  3.520
  3.720
  3.920
  4.120
  4.310
  4.500
  4.690
  4.870
  5.050
  5.220
  5.380
  5.540
  5.690
  5.840
  5.980
  6.120
  6.250
  6.380
  6.500
  6.610
  6.720
  6.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.077
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  147
  156
  162
  166
  172
  180
  189
  200
  212
  226
  241
  266
  285
  306
  328
  353
  379
  408
  438
  471
  506
  544
  584
  627
  673
  721
  773
  828
  887
  949
  1,015
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  177
  184
  188
  195
  202
  212
  223
  236
  250
  266
  281
  301
  322
  345
  370
  397
  427
  458
  492
  528
  567
  608
  652
  699
  749
  802
  858
  918
  982
  1,049
Change in working capital, $m
  -85
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  173
  186
  191
  197
  205
  215
  227
  240
  254
  271
  286
  306
  327
  351
  376
  404
  433
  465
  499
  536
  575
  617
  661
  709
  759
  813
  870
  930
  994
  1,063
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  76
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Free cash flow, $m
  200
  159
  172
  176
  181
  189
  198
  208
  220
  234
  250
  264
  282
  303
  325
  349
  376
  404
  434
  467
  502
  539
  579
  622
  667
  716
  767
  822
  880
  942
  1,007
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -83
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  71
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -50
  -83
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  150
  77
  183
  188
  196
  205
  215
  227
  241
  256
  273
  289
  309
  331
  356
  382
  410
  440
  472
  507
  544
  584
  626
  672
  720
  771
  825
  883
  944
  1,009
  1,078
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -93
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  884
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  867
  181
  187
  194
  203
  213
  225
  239
  254
  270
  286
  306
  328
  352
  378
  406
  436
  468
  503
  540
  579
  621
  666
  714
  765
  819
  876
  937
  1,002
  1,070
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  832
  166
  163
  160
  157
  155
  152
  149
  146
  142
  136
  131
  125
  118
  111
  103
  95
  86
  77
  69
  60
  52
  44
  36
  30
  24
  19
  14
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides investment management and advisory, investment product underwriting and distribution, and shareholder services administration to mutual funds, and institutional and separately managed accounts in the United States. The company acts as an investment adviser for institutional and other private investors, and provides sub advisory services to other investment companies; and underwrites and distributes registered open-end mutual fund portfolios. It also offers fee-based asset allocation investment advisory products to advisors channel customers; distributes business partnersÂ’ variable annuity products, and retirement and life insurance products to advisors channel customers; and sells life insurance and disability products underwritten by various carriers. The company distributes investment products through its wholesale channel comprising other broker/dealers, various retirement platforms, and registered investment advisors, as well as through independent financial advisors; and markets investment advisory services to institutional investors directly or through consultants. Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is based in Overland Park, Kansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Waddell&Reed Financial (WDR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 15
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -18.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 22.5%
Total Debt to Equity 22.5%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Return On Equity 17.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
EBITDA Margin 20.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Operating Margin 19%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Effective Tax Rate 34.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 104.1%

WDR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WDR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1239 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Waddell&Reed Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Waddell&Reed Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WDR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WDR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Waddell&Reed Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Waddell&Reed Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WDR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 35.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $580 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WDR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Waddell&Reed Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Waddell&Reed Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WDR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WDR are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 14.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Waddell&Reed Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WDR is equal to -7.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $844 million for Waddell&Reed Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84.021 million for Waddell&Reed Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Waddell&Reed Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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Stock chart of WDR Financial statements of WDR Annual reports of WDR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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