Intrinsic value of Whole Foods Market - WFM

Previous Close

$41.71

  Intrinsic Value

$28.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

  Value-price divergence*

-15%

Previous close

$41.71

 
Intrinsic value

$28.30

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-15%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WFM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.18
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15,724
  16,038
  16,407
  16,829
  17,302
  17,827
  18,403
  19,029
  19,708
  20,439
  21,223
  22,062
  22,957
  23,911
  24,924
  25,999
  27,139
  28,345
  29,620
  30,968
  32,391
  33,892
  35,475
  37,144
  38,903
  40,755
  42,705
  44,757
  46,917
  49,189
  51,579
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  15,139
  15,485
  15,882
  16,326
  16,819
  17,360
  17,949
  18,586
  19,273
  20,010
  20,727
  21,568
  22,464
  23,416
  24,426
  25,496
  26,629
  27,828
  29,094
  30,430
  31,841
  33,329
  34,896
  36,549
  38,288
  40,120
  42,049
  44,078
  46,212
  48,458
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  14,867
  15,139
  15,485
  15,882
  16,326
  16,819
  17,360
  17,949
  18,586
  19,273
  20,010
  20,727
  21,568
  22,464
  23,416
  24,426
  25,496
  26,629
  27,828
  29,094
  30,430
  31,841
  33,329
  34,896
  36,549
  38,288
  40,120
  42,049
  44,078
  46,212
  48,458
Operating income, $m
  857
  900
  922
  947
  976
  1,008
  1,043
  1,081
  1,122
  1,166
  1,213
  1,335
  1,389
  1,447
  1,508
  1,573
  1,642
  1,715
  1,792
  1,874
  1,960
  2,051
  2,147
  2,248
  2,354
  2,466
  2,584
  2,708
  2,839
  2,977
  3,121
EBITDA, $m
  1,355
  1,315
  1,346
  1,380
  1,419
  1,462
  1,509
  1,561
  1,616
  1,676
  1,741
  1,809
  1,883
  1,961
  2,044
  2,132
  2,226
  2,325
  2,429
  2,540
  2,657
  2,780
  2,910
  3,046
  3,191
  3,343
  3,502
  3,671
  3,848
  4,034
  4,230
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  271
  288
  307
  326
  347
  368
Earnings before tax, $m
  827
  849
  869
  891
  915
  942
  972
  1,005
  1,040
  1,078
  1,118
  1,232
  1,279
  1,328
  1,380
  1,436
  1,494
  1,556
  1,622
  1,692
  1,765
  1,842
  1,924
  2,010
  2,100
  2,196
  2,296
  2,402
  2,513
  2,630
  2,753
Tax expense, $m
  320
  229
  235
  240
  247
  254
  263
  271
  281
  291
  302
  333
  345
  359
  373
  388
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  497
  519
  543
  567
  593
  620
  648
  678
  710
  743
Net income, $m
  507
  620
  634
  650
  668
  688
  710
  733
  759
  787
  816
  900
  933
  969
  1,007
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,288
  1,345
  1,404
  1,467
  1,533
  1,603
  1,676
  1,753
  1,834
  1,920
  2,010

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  730
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,341
  5,724
  5,856
  6,006
  6,175
  6,362
  6,568
  6,791
  7,033
  7,294
  7,574
  7,874
  8,193
  8,533
  8,895
  9,279
  9,685
  10,116
  10,571
  11,052
  11,560
  12,096
  12,661
  13,256
  13,884
  14,545
  15,241
  15,973
  16,744
  17,555
  18,408
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,611
  5,724
  5,856
  6,006
  6,175
  6,362
  6,568
  6,791
  7,033
  7,294
  7,574
  7,874
  8,193
  8,533
  8,895
  9,279
  9,685
  10,116
  10,571
  11,052
  11,560
  12,096
  12,661
  13,256
  13,884
  14,545
  15,241
  15,973
  16,744
  17,555
  18,408
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
  2.802
Average production assets, $m
  3,379
  3,448
  3,528
  3,618
  3,720
  3,833
  3,957
  4,091
  4,237
  4,394
  4,563
  4,743
  4,936
  5,141
  5,359
  5,590
  5,835
  6,094
  6,368
  6,658
  6,964
  7,287
  7,627
  7,986
  8,364
  8,762
  9,182
  9,623
  10,087
  10,576
  11,090
Working capital, $m
  634
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
Total debt, $m
  1,051
  1,111
  1,184
  1,267
  1,361
  1,465
  1,579
  1,703
  1,838
  1,982
  2,138
  2,304
  2,481
  2,670
  2,871
  3,084
  3,309
  3,548
  3,801
  4,068
  4,350
  4,647
  4,961
  5,291
  5,640
  6,006
  6,393
  6,799
  7,227
  7,677
  8,150
Total liabilities, $m
  3,117
  3,177
  3,250
  3,333
  3,427
  3,531
  3,645
  3,769
  3,904
  4,048
  4,204
  4,370
  4,547
  4,736
  4,937
  5,150
  5,375
  5,614
  5,867
  6,134
  6,416
  6,713
  7,027
  7,357
  7,706
  8,072
  8,459
  8,865
  9,293
  9,743
  10,216
Total equity, $m
  3,224
  2,547
  2,606
  2,673
  2,748
  2,831
  2,923
  3,022
  3,130
  3,246
  3,371
  3,504
  3,646
  3,797
  3,958
  4,129
  4,310
  4,502
  4,704
  4,918
  5,144
  5,383
  5,634
  5,899
  6,178
  6,472
  6,782
  7,108
  7,451
  7,812
  8,192
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,341
  5,724
  5,856
  6,006
  6,175
  6,362
  6,568
  6,791
  7,034
  7,294
  7,575
  7,874
  8,193
  8,533
  8,895
  9,279
  9,685
  10,116
  10,571
  11,052
  11,560
  12,096
  12,661
  13,256
  13,884
  14,544
  15,241
  15,973
  16,744
  17,555
  18,408
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.326
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.444
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  507
  620
  634
  650
  668
  688
  710
  733
  759
  787
  816
  900
  933
  969
  1,007
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,288
  1,345
  1,404
  1,467
  1,533
  1,603
  1,676
  1,753
  1,834
  1,920
  2,010
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  498
  416
  424
  433
  443
  454
  467
  480
  495
  510
  527
  474
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  609
  637
  666
  696
  729
  763
  799
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,058
  1,109
Funds from operations, $m
  1,082
  1,036
  1,058
  1,083
  1,111
  1,142
  1,176
  1,214
  1,254
  1,297
  1,344
  1,374
  1,427
  1,483
  1,543
  1,607
  1,674
  1,746
  1,821
  1,901
  1,985
  2,073
  2,167
  2,266
  2,370
  2,479
  2,594
  2,715
  2,843
  2,977
  3,119
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  1,116
  1,038
  1,060
  1,085
  1,114
  1,145
  1,180
  1,217
  1,258
  1,301
  1,348
  1,379
  1,432
  1,489
  1,549
  1,613
  1,681
  1,753
  1,829
  1,909
  1,993
  2,082
  2,177
  2,276
  2,380
  2,490
  2,606
  2,728
  2,856
  2,991
  3,133
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -338
  -345
  -353
  -362
  -372
  -383
  -396
  -409
  -424
  -439
  -456
  -474
  -494
  -514
  -536
  -559
  -583
  -609
  -637
  -666
  -696
  -729
  -763
  -799
  -836
  -876
  -918
  -962
  -1,009
  -1,058
New CAPEX, $m
  -718
  -69
  -79
  -91
  -102
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -169
  -180
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -489
  -514
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -895
  -407
  -424
  -444
  -464
  -485
  -507
  -531
  -555
  -581
  -608
  -636
  -667
  -699
  -732
  -767
  -804
  -842
  -883
  -927
  -972
  -1,019
  -1,069
  -1,122
  -1,177
  -1,234
  -1,295
  -1,359
  -1,426
  -1,498
  -1,572
Free cash flow, $m
  221
  631
  636
  642
  650
  661
  673
  687
  703
  721
  740
  742
  766
  791
  818
  846
  877
  910
  945
  982
  1,022
  1,063
  1,107
  1,154
  1,203
  1,256
  1,310
  1,368
  1,429
  1,494
  1,561
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  993
  63
  73
  84
  94
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  267
  282
  297
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  407
  428
  450
  473
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -925
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  63
  73
  84
  94
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  267
  282
  297
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  407
  428
  450
  473
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  291
  693
  709
  726
  744
  765
  787
  811
  837
  865
  896
  909
  943
  979
  1,018
  1,059
  1,103
  1,149
  1,198
  1,249
  1,303
  1,361
  1,421
  1,485
  1,552
  1,622
  1,697
  1,775
  1,857
  1,944
  2,035
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  545
  -50
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -279
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -361
  -380
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  727
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,370
  650
  659
  669
  681
  695
  712
  730
  749
  771
  775
  801
  828
  857
  889
  922
  957
  995
  1,035
  1,077
  1,122
  1,170
  1,220
  1,272
  1,328
  1,387
  1,449
  1,514
  1,583
  1,655
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,314
  595
  573
  551
  528
  505
  481
  456
  430
  404
  368
  342
  315
  288
  261
  234
  208
  183
  159
  137
  116
  97
  80
  65
  52
  40
  31
  23
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Whole Foods Market, Inc. operates natural and organic foods supermarkets. Its stores offers produce, packaged goods, bulk, frozen, dairy, meat, bakery, prepared foods, coffee, tea, beer, wine, cheese, nutritional supplements, vitamins, body care, pet foods, and household goods. As of November 2, 2016, the company operated 464 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Whole Foods Market, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Whole Foods Market (WFM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 243
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 32.5%
Total Debt to Equity 32.6%
Interest Coverage 32
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Asset Turnover 2.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Payout Ratio 34.9%

WFM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WFM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15724 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Whole Foods Market. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Whole Foods Market. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WFM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WFM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Whole Foods Market, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Whole Foods Market.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WFM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WFM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for Whole Foods Market.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Whole Foods Market. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WFM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WFM are equal to 21.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Whole Foods Market operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WFM is equal to -0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3224 million for Whole Foods Market - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 314.174 million for Whole Foods Market is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Whole Foods Market at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.1 billion.

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Stock chart of WFM Financial statements of WFM Annual reports of WFM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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