Intrinsic value of Wingstop - WING

Previous Close

$50.99

  Intrinsic Value

$5.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$50.99

 
Intrinsic value

$5.10

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WING stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.67
  15.50
  14.45
  13.51
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  91
  122
  140
  159
  179
  200
  223
  247
  271
  297
  324
  352
  381
  412
  443
  476
  510
  545
  582
  621
  660
  702
  745
  790
  837
  886
  937
  990
  1,045
  1,103
  1,164
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
  111
  121
  132
  143
  145
  157
  170
  183
  196
  210
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  307
  326
  345
  365
  386
  408
  431
  455
  480
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  62
  76
  84
  92
  100
  110
  119
  130
  140
  151
  163
  165
  178
  191
  205
  218
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  414
  437
  460
  485
  511
Operating income, $m
  29
  46
  56
  67
  78
  90
  103
  117
  131
  146
  161
  187
  203
  221
  239
  258
  277
  297
  319
  340
  363
  387
  412
  438
  465
  493
  522
  553
  585
  618
  653
EBITDA, $m
  32
  67
  79
  91
  105
  119
  134
  150
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  260
  281
  303
  325
  349
  374
  399
  426
  454
  483
  513
  544
  577
  611
  647
  684
  723
  764
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  7
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  39
  51
  61
  71
  82
  94
  106
  119
  132
  146
  171
  186
  201
  218
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  375
  399
  423
  449
  475
  503
  532
  563
  594
Tax expense, $m
  10
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
Net income, $m
  15
  28
  37
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  107
  124
  136
  147
  159
  171
  184
  198
  212
  226
  242
  257
  274
  291
  309
  327
  347
  367
  388
  411
  434

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  112
  139
  159
  181
  203
  228
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  433
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  750
  797
  846
  897
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,187
  1,252
  1,321
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  139
  159
  181
  203
  228
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  433
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  750
  797
  846
  897
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,187
  1,252
  1,321
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.843
  0.878
  0.881
  0.878
  0.882
  0.877
  0.881
  0.882
  0.880
  0.881
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.882
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.880
  0.880
  0.882
  0.880
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.882
  0.881
  0.881
  0.880
  0.881
  0.881
Average production assets, $m
  56
  116
  133
  151
  170
  190
  212
  234
  257
  282
  307
  334
  362
  391
  421
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  627
  666
  707
  750
  794
  841
  889
  939
  992
  1,047
  1,105
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  151
  91
  109
  128
  149
  170
  193
  217
  243
  269
  296
  325
  355
  386
  418
  452
  487
  523
  560
  599
  640
  683
  727
  773
  820
  870
  922
  977
  1,033
  1,093
  1,155
Total liabilities, $m
  186
  125
  143
  162
  183
  205
  228
  252
  277
  303
  331
  360
  389
  420
  453
  486
  521
  557
  595
  634
  675
  717
  761
  807
  855
  905
  957
  1,011
  1,068
  1,127
  1,189
Total equity, $m
  -75
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  111
  139
  159
  180
  203
  228
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  432
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  750
  797
  846
  897
  950
  1,006
  1,063
  1,123
  1,187
  1,252
  1,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.013
  6.520
  6.830
  7.090
  7.300
  7.480
  7.640
  7.770
  7.880
  7.980
  8.060
  8.140
  8.200
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.731
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  28
  37
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  107
  124
  136
  147
  159
  171
  184
  198
  212
  226
  242
  257
  274
  291
  309
  327
  347
  367
  388
  411
  434
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
Funds from operations, $m
  26
  50
  60
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  122
  134
  147
  158
  172
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  388
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  50
  61
  69
  79
  89
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  158
  172
  187
  202
  217
  233
  250
  268
  286
  305
  325
  345
  367
  389
  412
  437
  462
  489
  516
  545
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -163
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  24
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  76
  85
  94
  101
  111
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  253
  270
  287
  304
  323
  342
  362
  383
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  -43
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  56
  -9
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  15
  50
  58
  65
  74
  82
  91
  101
  111
  121
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  219
  234
  249
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  399
  421
  445
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  65
  -62
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -47
  48
  55
  63
  71
  80
  89
  98
  108
  118
  126
  138
  149
  161
  174
  187
  200
  215
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
  371
  392
  415
  438
Discount rate, %
 
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -42
  37
  37
  36
  34
  32
  29
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Wingstop Inc. is franchisor and operator of restaurants that specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The Company operates through two segments: Franchise and Company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offers its guests 11 flavors on bone-in and boneless chicken wings paired with hand-cut, seasoned fries and sides. It is a casual chicken wings-focused restaurant chain with various concepts, which include wings as add-on menu items or focus on wings in a bar or sports-centric setting. The flavors include Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, Hawaiian and Teriyaki. It offers various order options, including eat-in, to go, individual, combo meals and family packs. The Company maintains Website hosting, and manages the development and maintenance of the mobile Wingstop application. It markets Wingstop products, services and restaurants through the Website, www.wingstop.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wingstop (WING)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 97.7
Price to Sales 16.1
Price to Book -19.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 66.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 73.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity -196%
Total Debt to Equity -201.3%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Return On Total Capital 18.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity -35.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.5%
EBITDA Margin 36.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Operating Margin 31.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Net Profit Margin 16.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 553.3%

WING stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WING stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wingstop. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Wingstop. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WING stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for WING is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wingstop, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wingstop.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WING stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $16 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WING stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Wingstop.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wingstop. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WING stock is equal to 1.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WING are equal to 94.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wingstop operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WING is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-48 million for Wingstop - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29 million for Wingstop is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wingstop at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ IBD Stock Of The Day: Wingstop Nears New Buy Point After 46% Run In 2018   [Jul-06-18 04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ These 5 Top Stocks Are Near Buy Points From This Bullish Base   [Jul-05-18 04:03PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Wingstop Opens in Panama   [Jun-26-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bull of the Day: Wingstop (WING)   [06:30AM  Zacks]
▶ At just 1 year old, this NM company is already a Top 100 honoree   [Jun-12-18 04:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 4 Reasons Why Wedbush Upgraded Wingstop   [Jun-07-18 11:10AM  Benzinga]
▶ Big Restaurant Brands Dive Into Grubhub Era Of Delivery Rivalry   [May-24-18 11:19AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Stock Picks for the Week of May 7th   [May-08-18 12:53PM  Zacks]
▶ Wingstop: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Wingstop CEO discusses Rick Ross, boneless vs. bone-in wings   [Mar-25-18 12:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Company News For Feb 26, 2018   [Feb-26-18 10:02AM  Zacks]
▶ Winners and Losers   [Feb-23-18 05:42PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Wingstop beats Street 4Q forecasts   [04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Wingstop beats the Street   [04:13PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Wingstop, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Wingstop Q4 Earnings Preview   [08:43AM  Benzinga]
▶ 3 Stocks Set to Drop   [Feb-20-18 03:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ On Valentines Day, Nothing Says Love Like a Plate of Chicken Wings   [Feb-14-18 01:26AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Stock Indexes Reverse To Session Lows, But This Stock Shines   [Feb-09-18 12:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ The 1-844-WING-LUV Hotline Is Open, Call Now!   [Feb-05-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 'The Big Game' means big sales for Wingstop   [Feb-01-18 05:59PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Wingstop declares special $3.17 dividend   [Jan-30-18 04:37PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Wingstop Shows Market Leadership With Jump To 93 RS Rating   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of WING
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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