Intrinsic value of Wabash National - WNC

Previous Close

$21.25

  Intrinsic Value

$30.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+44%

  Value-price divergence*

-58%

Previous close

$21.25

 
Intrinsic value

$30.58

 
Up/down potential

+44%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-58%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WNC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.98
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,845
  1,882
  1,925
  1,975
  2,030
  2,092
  2,159
  2,233
  2,312
  2,398
  2,490
  2,589
  2,694
  2,806
  2,925
  3,051
  3,184
  3,326
  3,476
  3,634
  3,801
  3,977
  4,163
  4,358
  4,565
  4,782
  5,011
  5,252
  5,505
  5,772
  6,052
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,714
  1,753
  1,798
  1,848
  1,904
  1,965
  2,031
  2,103
  2,180
  2,263
  2,338
  2,432
  2,533
  2,641
  2,755
  2,875
  3,003
  3,138
  3,281
  3,432
  3,591
  3,759
  3,936
  4,122
  4,318
  4,525
  4,742
  4,971
  5,212
  5,465
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,643
  1,714
  1,753
  1,798
  1,848
  1,904
  1,965
  2,031
  2,103
  2,180
  2,263
  2,338
  2,432
  2,533
  2,641
  2,755
  2,875
  3,003
  3,138
  3,281
  3,432
  3,591
  3,759
  3,936
  4,122
  4,318
  4,525
  4,742
  4,971
  5,212
  5,465
Operating income, $m
  203
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
EBITDA, $m
  240
  203
  207
  213
  219
  225
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  469
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  185
  157
  161
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  202
  210
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
Tax expense, $m
  66
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
Net income, $m
  119
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  163
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  899
  751
  768
  788
  810
  834
  861
  891
  922
  957
  993
  1,033
  1,074
  1,119
  1,167
  1,217
  1,270
  1,327
  1,386
  1,449
  1,516
  1,586
  1,660
  1,738
  1,821
  1,907
  1,999
  2,095
  2,196
  2,302
  2,414
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  736
  751
  768
  788
  810
  834
  861
  891
  922
  957
  993
  1,033
  1,074
  1,119
  1,167
  1,217
  1,270
  1,327
  1,386
  1,449
  1,516
  1,586
  1,660
  1,738
  1,821
  1,907
  1,999
  2,095
  2,196
  2,302
  2,414
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.507
  2.506
  2.507
  2.506
  2.506
  2.508
  2.508
  2.506
  2.508
  2.506
  2.508
  2.506
  2.508
  2.508
  2.506
  2.507
  2.507
  2.506
  2.508
  2.508
  2.507
  2.508
  2.508
  2.507
  2.507
  2.508
  2.507
  2.507
  2.507
  2.507
  2.507
Average production assets, $m
  172
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
Working capital, $m
  314
  156
  160
  164
  169
  174
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  302
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
Total debt, $m
  238
  243
  253
  265
  277
  292
  307
  324
  342
  362
  383
  406
  430
  456
  483
  512
  543
  575
  610
  646
  684
  725
  767
  812
  860
  910
  962
  1,018
  1,076
  1,137
  1,202
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  432
  442
  454
  466
  481
  496
  513
  531
  551
  572
  595
  619
  645
  672
  701
  732
  764
  799
  835
  873
  914
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,099
  1,151
  1,207
  1,265
  1,326
  1,391
Total equity, $m
  472
  318
  326
  334
  343
  354
  365
  378
  391
  406
  421
  438
  456
  475
  495
  516
  539
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  704
  737
  772
  809
  847
  888
  931
  976
  1,024
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  898
  750
  768
  788
  809
  835
  861
  891
  922
  957
  993
  1,033
  1,075
  1,120
  1,167
  1,217
  1,271
  1,326
  1,387
  1,450
  1,516
  1,587
  1,660
  1,738
  1,821
  1,908
  1,998
  2,095
  2,196
  2,302
  2,415
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.504
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  119
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  35
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Funds from operations, $m
  178
  149
  153
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  188
  195
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  454
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  179
  203
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  175
  181
  187
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  162
  180
  125
  127
  130
  132
  136
  139
  144
  148
  153
  154
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -177
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  188
  135
  138
  142
  147
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  160
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  342
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  328
  117
  113
  109
  106
  101
  97
  93
  88
  83
  76
  71
  65
  60
  55
  49
  44
  39
  34
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Wabash National Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets truck and tank trailers, intermodal equipment, and transportation related products in North America. Its Commercial Trailer Products segment provides dry van trailers; platform trailers; refrigerated trailers; specialty products, such as converter dollies, big tire haulers, steel coil haulers, and roadrailer trailers; aftermarket parts and rail components; truck bodies; used trailers; and laminated hard wood oak products. The company’s Diversified Products segment offers transportation products, including stainless steel and aluminum liquid and dry bulk tank trailers and other liquid transport solutions for the dairy, food and beverage, chemical, environmental, petroleum, and refined fuel industries; aircraft refuelers and hydrant dispensers for in-to-plane fueling companies, airlines, freight distribution companies, and fuel marketers; military grade refueling and water tankers; truck mounted tanks for fuel delivery; and vacuum tankers. This segment also provides engineered products comprising products for storage, mixing, and blending, including process vessels, as well as round horizontal and vertical storage silo tanks; containment and isolation systems for the pharmaceutical, chemical, and nuclear industries; containment systems for the pharmaceutical, chemical, and biotech markets; and mobile water storage tanks used in the oil and gas industry. The Retail segment operates 15 owned retail branch locations, which sell new and used trailers, aftermarket parts, and services. The company offers its products under the Wabash, Wabash National, DuraPlate, DuraPlate HD, DuraPlate XD-35, DuraPlate AeroSkirt, ArcticLite, RoadRailer, TrustLock Plus, Transcraft, Benson, Walker Transport, Walker Engineered Products, Brenner Tank, Garsite, Progress Tank, Bulk Tank International, Extract Technology, and Beall brand names. Wabash National Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Wabash National (WNC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 54
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 49.8%
Total Debt to Equity 50.4%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Total Capital 16.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 26.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 10.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

WNC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WNC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1845 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Wabash National. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Wabash National. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WNC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WNC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Wabash National, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Wabash National.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WNC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WNC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Wabash National.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Wabash National. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WNC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WNC are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Wabash National operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WNC is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $472 million for Wabash National - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.382 million for Wabash National is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Wabash National at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Trinity Shows Improved Technical Strength, But Fundamentals Lag   [May-24-17 11:58AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Wabash National Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-18-17 04:51PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Wabash beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-24-17 05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Wabash National Corporation Announces Earnings Release Date   [Apr-05-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Wabash National Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-23-17 04:26PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Wabash National Corporation Announces Earnings Release Date   [Jan-11-17 04:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Wabash National Corporation (WNC) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 06:41AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 17 undervalued small-cap stocks to consider as markets rally   [Nov-30-16 05:30PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Wabash National Corporation Announces Earnings Release Date   [Oct-05-16 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Indiana Public Company of the Year finalists named   [Aug-30-16 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of WNC Financial statements of WNC Annual reports of WNC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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