Intrinsic value of Western Refining Logistics - WNRL

Previous Close

$24.25

  Intrinsic Value

$9.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$24.25

 
Intrinsic value

$9.76

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WNRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.50
  29.30
  26.87
  24.68
  22.71
  20.94
  19.35
  17.91
  16.62
  15.46
  14.41
  13.47
  12.63
  11.86
  11.18
  10.56
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.65
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  2,223
  2,874
  3,647
  4,547
  5,580
  6,748
  8,054
  9,497
  11,075
  12,787
  14,631
  16,602
  18,698
  20,916
  23,254
  25,709
  28,281
  30,968
  33,772
  36,692
  39,731
  42,891
  46,176
  49,590
  53,138
  56,825
  60,657
  64,642
  68,788
  73,102
  77,594
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,811
  3,566
  4,447
  5,457
  6,600
  7,877
  9,288
  10,831
  12,506
  14,309
  16,237
  18,286
  20,456
  22,742
  25,143
  27,659
  30,287
  33,029
  35,885
  38,857
  41,948
  45,161
  48,499
  51,969
  55,574
  59,323
  63,220
  67,275
  71,494
  75,887
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,153
  2,811
  3,566
  4,447
  5,457
  6,600
  7,877
  9,288
  10,831
  12,506
  14,309
  16,237
  18,286
  20,456
  22,742
  25,143
  27,659
  30,287
  33,029
  35,885
  38,857
  41,948
  45,161
  48,499
  51,969
  55,574
  59,323
  63,220
  67,275
  71,494
  75,887
Operating income, $m
  70
  63
  80
  100
  123
  148
  177
  209
  244
  281
  322
  365
  411
  460
  512
  566
  622
  681
  743
  807
  874
  944
  1,016
  1,091
  1,169
  1,250
  1,334
  1,422
  1,513
  1,608
  1,707
EBITDA, $m
  109
  114
  144
  180
  221
  267
  318
  376
  438
  506
  579
  657
  739
  827
  920
  1,017
  1,118
  1,225
  1,336
  1,451
  1,571
  1,696
  1,826
  1,961
  2,101
  2,247
  2,399
  2,556
  2,720
  2,891
  3,068
Interest expense (income), $m
  25
  21
  30
  42
  55
  70
  87
  106
  127
  150
  175
  201
  230
  261
  293
  327
  363
  400
  439
  480
  522
  567
  613
  660
  710
  762
  815
  871
  929
  989
  1,052
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  42
  50
  58
  68
  79
  90
  103
  117
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  219
  239
  260
  281
  304
  327
  352
  377
  403
  431
  459
  488
  519
  551
  584
  619
  655
Tax expense, $m
  1
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
Net income, $m
  43
  31
  36
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  120
  132
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  379
  402
  426
  452
  478

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  581
  732
  928
  1,158
  1,420
  1,718
  2,050
  2,418
  2,820
  3,255
  3,725
  4,227
  4,760
  5,325
  5,920
  6,545
  7,200
  7,884
  8,598
  9,341
  10,115
  10,919
  11,756
  12,625
  13,528
  14,467
  15,442
  16,457
  17,512
  18,611
  19,754
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  566
  732
  928
  1,158
  1,420
  1,718
  2,050
  2,418
  2,820
  3,255
  3,725
  4,227
  4,760
  5,325
  5,920
  6,545
  7,200
  7,884
  8,598
  9,341
  10,115
  10,919
  11,756
  12,625
  13,528
  14,467
  15,442
  16,457
  17,512
  18,611
  19,754
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.928
  3.926
  3.930
  3.927
  3.930
  3.928
  3.929
  3.928
  3.927
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
  3.928
Average production assets, $m
  429
  555
  704
  878
  1,077
  1,302
  1,554
  1,833
  2,138
  2,468
  2,824
  3,204
  3,609
  4,037
  4,488
  4,962
  5,458
  5,977
  6,518
  7,082
  7,668
  8,278
  8,912
  9,571
  10,256
  10,967
  11,707
  12,476
  13,276
  14,109
  14,976
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -32
  -40
  -50
  -61
  -74
  -89
  -104
  -122
  -141
  -161
  -183
  -206
  -230
  -256
  -283
  -311
  -341
  -371
  -404
  -437
  -472
  -508
  -545
  -585
  -625
  -667
  -711
  -757
  -804
  -854
Total debt, $m
  313
  454
  622
  817
  1,042
  1,295
  1,579
  1,892
  2,235
  2,607
  3,007
  3,435
  3,890
  4,372
  4,880
  5,413
  5,971
  6,555
  7,164
  7,798
  8,458
  9,144
  9,858
  10,599
  11,369
  12,170
  13,002
  13,868
  14,768
  15,705
  16,680
Total liabilities, $m
  483
  624
  792
  987
  1,212
  1,465
  1,749
  2,062
  2,405
  2,777
  3,177
  3,605
  4,060
  4,542
  5,050
  5,583
  6,141
  6,725
  7,334
  7,968
  8,628
  9,314
  10,028
  10,769
  11,539
  12,340
  13,172
  14,038
  14,938
  15,875
  16,850
Total equity, $m
  98
  108
  136
  170
  209
  253
  301
  355
  414
  479
  548
  621
  700
  783
  870
  962
  1,058
  1,159
  1,264
  1,373
  1,487
  1,605
  1,728
  1,856
  1,989
  2,127
  2,270
  2,419
  2,574
  2,736
  2,904
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  581
  732
  928
  1,157
  1,421
  1,718
  2,050
  2,417
  2,819
  3,256
  3,725
  4,226
  4,760
  5,325
  5,920
  6,545
  7,199
  7,884
  8,598
  9,341
  10,115
  10,919
  11,756
  12,625
  13,528
  14,467
  15,442
  16,457
  17,512
  18,611
  19,754
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.194
  4.220
  4.560
  4.800
  4.990
  5.130
  5.240
  5.320
  5.390
  5.450
  5.490
  5.530
  5.560
  5.590
  5.610
  5.630
  5.640
  5.660
  5.670
  5.680
  5.690
  5.700
  5.700
  5.710
  5.720
  5.720
  5.730
  5.730
  5.740
  5.740
  5.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  31
  36
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  120
  132
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  379
  402
  426
  452
  478
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  50
  64
  80
  98
  118
  141
  167
  194
  224
  257
  291
  328
  367
  408
  451
  496
  543
  593
  644
  697
  753
  810
  870
  932
  997
  1,064
  1,134
  1,207
  1,283
  1,361
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  81
  100
  122
  148
  176
  207
  242
  280
  320
  364
  411
  460
  513
  568
  625
  686
  749
  814
  883
  954
  1,028
  1,105
  1,184
  1,267
  1,354
  1,443
  1,536
  1,633
  1,734
  1,839
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  88
  109
  132
  159
  189
  222
  258
  297
  339
  384
  433
  483
  537
  593
  652
  714
  778
  845
  915
  987
  1,062
  1,141
  1,222
  1,306
  1,394
  1,485
  1,580
  1,679
  1,782
  1,889
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -39
  -50
  -64
  -80
  -98
  -118
  -141
  -167
  -194
  -224
  -257
  -291
  -328
  -367
  -408
  -451
  -496
  -543
  -593
  -644
  -697
  -753
  -810
  -870
  -932
  -997
  -1,064
  -1,134
  -1,207
  -1,283
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -126
  -149
  -174
  -199
  -226
  -252
  -278
  -305
  -330
  -356
  -380
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -474
  -496
  -519
  -541
  -564
  -587
  -610
  -634
  -659
  -685
  -712
  -740
  -769
  -800
  -833
  -867
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -165
  -199
  -238
  -279
  -324
  -370
  -419
  -472
  -524
  -580
  -637
  -696
  -756
  -818
  -882
  -947
  -1,015
  -1,084
  -1,157
  -1,231
  -1,307
  -1,387
  -1,469
  -1,555
  -1,644
  -1,737
  -1,833
  -1,934
  -2,040
  -2,150
Free cash flow, $m
  83
  -77
  -91
  -105
  -120
  -135
  -149
  -162
  -174
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -225
  -230
  -233
  -237
  -239
  -241
  -243
  -245
  -246
  -247
  -248
  -250
  -251
  -253
  -255
  -258
  -261
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -125
  141
  168
  195
  224
  254
  284
  313
  343
  372
  400
  428
  455
  482
  508
  533
  558
  584
  609
  634
  660
  686
  713
  741
  770
  801
  832
  865
  900
  937
  975
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  277
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -57
  141
  168
  195
  224
  254
  284
  313
  343
  372
  400
  428
  455
  482
  508
  533
  558
  584
  609
  634
  660
  686
  713
  741
  770
  801
  832
  865
  900
  937
  975
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  64
  77
  90
  104
  119
  135
  151
  169
  186
  205
  223
  243
  263
  283
  304
  325
  347
  370
  393
  417
  442
  467
  494
  522
  551
  581
  612
  645
  679
  715
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  48
  56
  65
  75
  86
  97
  109
  122
  136
  150
  164
  180
  195
  212
  229
  246
  265
  284
  303
  323
  345
  366
  389
  413
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
Discount rate, %
 
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  50
  40
  42
  44
  44
  44
  43
  41
  39
  36
  32
  28
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Western Refining Logistics, LP engages in the ownership, acquisition, development, and operation of terminals, storage tanks, pipelines, and other logistics assets in the Southwestern United States. It is involved in the terminalling, transportation, storage, and distribution of crude oil and refined products. Its pipeline and gathering assets include approximately 685 miles of crude oil pipelines and gathering systems; approximately 8.2 million barrels of active storage capacity; 31 crude oil storage tanks with a total combined active shell storage capacity of approximately 828,000 barrels; 8 truck loading and unloading locations; and 15 pump stations. The company’s terminalling, transportation, and storage assets comprise terminals and storage assets located at El Paso and Gallup refineries, and refined products terminals located in Bloomfield and Albuquerque, New Mexico, which receive, store, and distribute crude oil, feedstock, and refined products; and asphalt plant and terminal that provides asphalt terminalling and processing services in El Paso. Its terminalling, transportation, and storage assets also consists of asphalt terminals that offer asphalt terminalling services located in Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, which have a storage capacity of approximately 473,000 barrels. The company also distributes gasoline, diesel fuel, and lubricant products. Western Refining Logistics GP, LLC operates as a general partner of Western Refining Logistics, LP. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas. Western Refining Logistics, LP is a subsidiary of Western Refining, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Western Refining Logistics (WNRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 15.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -18.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 319.4%
Total Debt to Equity 319.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 62.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
Asset Turnover 3.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
EBITDA Margin 4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 2.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Payout Ratio 130.2%

WNRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WNRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2223 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Western Refining Logistics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Western Refining Logistics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WNRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for WNRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Western Refining Logistics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Western Refining Logistics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WNRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WNRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Western Refining Logistics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Western Refining Logistics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WNRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WNRL are equal to 19.3%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Western Refining Logistics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WNRL is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $98 million for Western Refining Logistics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.538 million for Western Refining Logistics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Western Refining Logistics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Stock chart of WNRL Financial statements of WNRL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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