Intrinsic value of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust - WRE

Previous Close

$32.56

  Intrinsic Value

$3.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$32.56

 
Intrinsic value

$3.41

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as WRE.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.29
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  313
  320
  328
  338
  348
  359
  371
  385
  399
  414
  431
  448
  467
  486
  507
  530
  553
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  725
  759
  795
  833
  873
  916
  960
  1,007
  1,056
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  375
  393
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  547
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  142
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  375
  393
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  547
Operating income, $m
  172
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
  509
EBITDA, $m
  280
  265
  271
  279
  287
  297
  307
  318
  330
  342
  356
  370
  386
  402
  419
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  572
  599
  627
  657
  689
  722
  756
  793
  832
  872
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  153
  160
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  124
  129
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  349
Tax expense, $m
  0
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
Net income, $m
  119
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,254
  2,287
  2,346
  2,412
  2,485
  2,565
  2,653
  2,747
  2,849
  2,958
  3,075
  3,200
  3,333
  3,474
  3,624
  3,783
  3,951
  4,129
  4,317
  4,515
  4,724
  4,945
  5,178
  5,423
  5,681
  5,953
  6,239
  6,540
  6,857
  7,190
  7,540
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,243
  2,287
  2,346
  2,412
  2,485
  2,565
  2,653
  2,747
  2,849
  2,958
  3,075
  3,200
  3,333
  3,474
  3,624
  3,783
  3,951
  4,129
  4,317
  4,515
  4,724
  4,945
  5,178
  5,423
  5,681
  5,953
  6,239
  6,540
  6,857
  7,190
  7,540
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Average production assets, $m
  2,025
  2,072
  2,125
  2,185
  2,251
  2,324
  2,403
  2,488
  2,581
  2,680
  2,786
  2,899
  3,019
  3,147
  3,283
  3,427
  3,579
  3,740
  3,910
  4,090
  4,279
  4,479
  4,690
  4,912
  5,146
  5,392
  5,651
  5,924
  6,211
  6,513
  6,830
Working capital, $m
  0
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
Total debt, $m
  1,112
  1,123
  1,155
  1,190
  1,229
  1,271
  1,318
  1,368
  1,422
  1,480
  1,542
  1,608
  1,679
  1,754
  1,833
  1,918
  2,007
  2,101
  2,201
  2,307
  2,418
  2,535
  2,658
  2,789
  2,926
  3,070
  3,222
  3,382
  3,550
  3,727
  3,913
Total liabilities, $m
  1,203
  1,214
  1,246
  1,281
  1,320
  1,362
  1,409
  1,459
  1,513
  1,571
  1,633
  1,699
  1,770
  1,845
  1,924
  2,009
  2,098
  2,192
  2,292
  2,398
  2,509
  2,626
  2,749
  2,880
  3,017
  3,161
  3,313
  3,473
  3,641
  3,818
  4,004
Total equity, $m
  1,051
  1,073
  1,100
  1,131
  1,165
  1,203
  1,244
  1,288
  1,336
  1,387
  1,442
  1,501
  1,563
  1,629
  1,700
  1,774
  1,853
  1,936
  2,025
  2,118
  2,216
  2,319
  2,428
  2,543
  2,664
  2,792
  2,926
  3,067
  3,216
  3,372
  3,536
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,254
  2,287
  2,346
  2,412
  2,485
  2,565
  2,653
  2,747
  2,849
  2,958
  3,075
  3,200
  3,333
  3,474
  3,624
  3,783
  3,951
  4,128
  4,317
  4,516
  4,725
  4,945
  5,177
  5,423
  5,681
  5,953
  6,239
  6,540
  6,857
  7,190
  7,540
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.058
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  119
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  108
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  188
  193
  199
  205
  211
  219
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  589
  618
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  186
  190
  196
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  238
  248
  257
  268
  279
  291
  303
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  414
  433
  453
  475
  498
  521
  547
  573
  601
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -167
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
New CAPEX, $m
  -285
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -155
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -289
  -303
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -495
  -520
  -546
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  8
  5
  2
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -155
  22
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  174
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  22
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  54
  58
  58
  58
  58
  58
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -215
  -22
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  31
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  26
  20
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Washington Real Estate Investment Trust is a self-administered equity real estate investment trust. The Company's business consists of the ownership and operation of real property in the greater Washington metro region. The Company owns a diversified portfolio of office buildings, multifamily buildings and retail centers. The Company's segments include office, multifamily and retail. The Company's office properties provide office space for various types of businesses and professions. The Company's multifamily properties provide rental housing for individuals and families throughout the Washington metro region. Its retail properties are typically grocery store anchored neighborhood centers that include other small shop tenants or regional power centers with various junior box tenants. As of April 4, 2017, it owned a diversified portfolio of 50 properties, totaling approximately 6.0 million square feet of commercial space and 4,480 residential units, and land held for development.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 7.8
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 46.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 94.4%
Total Debt to Equity 105.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.6%
EBITDA Margin 88.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.7%
Operating Margin 54.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 38%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Net Profit Margin 38%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 72.3%

WRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $313 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for WRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WRE are equal to 647%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Washington Real Estate Investment Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WRE is equal to 34.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1051 million for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.017 million for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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LXP Lexington Real 9.97 1.45  str.sell
OFC Corporate Offi 30.20 3.83  str.sell
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Washington Reit reports 3Q results   [Oct-26-17 05:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Do Wall Street Analysts Rate Boston Properties?   [Sep-06-17 09:06AM  Market Realist]
▶ WashREIT continues multifamily growth with 550 units near Huntington Metro   [Aug-30-17 09:59AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Washington REIT adding 401 units to an already giant Arlington complex   [Aug-18-17 02:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How these retail investors are playing the market   [Jul-31-17 03:46PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Washington Reit reports 2Q results   [Jul-28-17 08:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ USDA division moving to space near Alexandria's Braddock Road Metro   [12:46PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Washington Reit reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Watergate acquisition could be the first of many for WashREIT   [12:34PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Diversified REITs   [Apr-03-17 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A year later, First Potomac reports improved outlook   [Feb-24-17 12:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ New J. Alexanders restaurant opens next to Crabtree Valley Mall   [Dec-13-16 08:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of WRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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