Intrinsic value of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust - WRE

Previous Close

$32.77

  Intrinsic Value

$3.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

+19%

Previous close

$32.77

 
Intrinsic value

$3.58

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+19%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as WRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  313
  319
  327
  335
  344
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
  590
  616
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,027
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  165
  169
  174
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  462
  484
  507
  532
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  142
  165
  169
  174
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  462
  484
  507
  532
Operating income, $m
  172
  154
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  472
  495
EBITDA, $m
  280
  264
  270
  277
  285
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  428
  446
  466
  487
  509
  533
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  772
  809
  848
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  156
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  339
Tax expense, $m
  0
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
Net income, $m
  119
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,254
  2,280
  2,333
  2,393
  2,460
  2,535
  2,617
  2,706
  2,802
  2,906
  3,018
  3,137
  3,264
  3,400
  3,544
  3,697
  3,859
  4,030
  4,212
  4,403
  4,605
  4,819
  5,044
  5,281
  5,531
  5,795
  6,072
  6,364
  6,671
  6,994
  7,334
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,243
  2,280
  2,333
  2,393
  2,460
  2,535
  2,617
  2,706
  2,802
  2,906
  3,018
  3,137
  3,264
  3,400
  3,544
  3,697
  3,859
  4,030
  4,212
  4,403
  4,605
  4,819
  5,044
  5,281
  5,531
  5,795
  6,072
  6,364
  6,671
  6,994
  7,334
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Average production assets, $m
  2,025
  2,066
  2,113
  2,167
  2,228
  2,296
  2,370
  2,451
  2,538
  2,632
  2,733
  2,841
  2,957
  3,080
  3,210
  3,348
  3,495
  3,651
  3,815
  3,988
  4,172
  4,365
  4,569
  4,784
  5,010
  5,249
  5,500
  5,764
  6,042
  6,335
  6,643
Working capital, $m
  0
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Total debt, $m
  1,112
  1,120
  1,148
  1,180
  1,215
  1,255
  1,298
  1,346
  1,397
  1,452
  1,511
  1,575
  1,642
  1,714
  1,791
  1,872
  1,958
  2,049
  2,145
  2,247
  2,354
  2,468
  2,587
  2,713
  2,846
  2,986
  3,133
  3,288
  3,451
  3,623
  3,803
Total liabilities, $m
  1,203
  1,211
  1,239
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,666
  1,733
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,445
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Total equity, $m
  1,051
  1,070
  1,094
  1,122
  1,154
  1,189
  1,227
  1,269
  1,314
  1,363
  1,415
  1,471
  1,531
  1,594
  1,662
  1,734
  1,810
  1,890
  1,975
  2,065
  2,160
  2,260
  2,366
  2,477
  2,594
  2,718
  2,848
  2,985
  3,129
  3,280
  3,440
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,254
  2,281
  2,333
  2,393
  2,460
  2,535
  2,616
  2,706
  2,802
  2,906
  3,017
  3,137
  3,264
  3,399
  3,544
  3,697
  3,859
  4,030
  4,211
  4,403
  4,605
  4,819
  5,044
  5,281
  5,531
  5,795
  6,072
  6,364
  6,671
  6,994
  7,334
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.058
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  119
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  108
  110
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  188
  192
  197
  203
  209
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  331
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  185
  190
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  297
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  462
  484
  508
  532
  557
  584
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -108
  -110
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -267
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -337
New CAPEX, $m
  -285
  -41
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -196
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -377
  -395
  -415
  -436
  -458
  -480
  -506
  -530
  -557
  -585
  -614
  -645
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  37
  32
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  8
  5
  2
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -155
  19
  28
  32
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  180
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  174
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  19
  28
  32
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  180
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  56
  60
  59
  59
  59
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -215
  -19
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  35
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  34
  30
  24
  19
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Washington Real Estate Investment Trust is an equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The company engages in the ownership, operation, and development of real properties. The firm invests in real estate markets of the greater Washington D.C. metro region. It focuses on office, medical office, industrial/flex space, retail, and multifamily real estate investments. Washington Real Estate Investment Trust was founded in 1960 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.5
Price to Sales 7.8
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 46.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 94.4%
Total Debt to Equity 105.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.6%
EBITDA Margin 88.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.7%
Operating Margin 54.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 38%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Net Profit Margin 38%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 72.3%

WRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $313 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for WRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WRE are equal to 647%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Washington Real Estate Investment Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WRE is equal to 34.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1051 million for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.422 million for Washington Real Estate Investment Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Washington Real Estate Investment Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Washington REIT adding 401 units to an already giant Arlington complex   [Aug-17-17 12:04PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How these retail investors are playing the market   [Jul-31-17 03:46PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Washington Reit reports 2Q results   [Jul-28-17 08:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ USDA division moving to space near Alexandria's Braddock Road Metro   [12:46PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Washington Reit reports 1Q results   [Apr-26-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Watergate acquisition could be the first of many for WashREIT   [12:34PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Diversified REITs   [Apr-03-17 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A year later, First Potomac reports improved outlook   [Feb-24-17 12:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ New J. Alexanders restaurant opens next to Crabtree Valley Mall   [Dec-13-16 08:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Washington REIT closes the loop on $240 million portfolio sale   [Sep-22-16 06:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of WRE Financial statements of WRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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