Intrinsic value of Watsco - WSO

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$138.62

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$138.62

 
Intrinsic value

$96.36

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WSO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,221
  4,305
  4,404
  4,518
  4,645
  4,786
  4,940
  5,108
  5,290
  5,487
  5,697
  5,922
  6,163
  6,419
  6,691
  6,979
  7,285
  7,609
  7,951
  8,313
  8,695
  9,098
  9,523
  9,971
  10,443
  10,940
  11,464
  12,015
  12,595
  13,204
  13,846
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,947
  4,037
  4,140
  4,255
  4,383
  4,524
  4,676
  4,842
  5,020
  5,211
  5,378
  5,596
  5,828
  6,075
  6,337
  6,615
  6,909
  7,220
  7,548
  7,895
  8,261
  8,647
  9,054
  9,482
  9,934
  10,409
  10,909
  11,436
  11,990
  12,572
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,875
  3,953
  4,043
  4,146
  4,262
  4,390
  4,531
  4,683
  4,849
  5,027
  5,219
  5,386
  5,604
  5,836
  6,083
  6,346
  6,624
  6,918
  7,229
  7,558
  7,905
  8,271
  8,657
  9,065
  9,493
  9,945
  10,420
  10,921
  11,448
  12,002
  12,585
Operating income, $m
  346
  352
  361
  371
  383
  395
  410
  425
  441
  459
  478
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  691
  722
  755
  790
  827
  866
  907
  950
  995
  1,043
  1,094
  1,147
  1,203
  1,261
EBITDA, $m
  366
  398
  407
  418
  429
  442
  457
  472
  489
  508
  527
  548
  570
  594
  620
  646
  675
  705
  737
  771
  806
  844
  884
  925
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,227
  1,287
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  69
  73
Earnings before tax, $m
  342
  344
  352
  362
  372
  384
  397
  411
  427
  443
  461
  518
  538
  560
  583
  607
  633
  661
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  942
  987
  1,033
  1,082
  1,134
  1,188
Tax expense, $m
  106
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
Net income, $m
  183
  251
  257
  264
  272
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  378
  393
  409
  426
  443
  462
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  600
  628
  657
  688
  720
  754
  790
  828
  867

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,875
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,001
  2,062
  2,128
  2,201
  2,279
  2,364
  2,455
  2,552
  2,655
  2,765
  2,883
  3,007
  3,139
  3,278
  3,426
  3,582
  3,746
  3,920
  4,103
  4,296
  4,499
  4,714
  4,939
  5,177
  5,426
  5,689
  5,966
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,819
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,001
  2,062
  2,128
  2,201
  2,279
  2,364
  2,455
  2,552
  2,655
  2,765
  2,883
  3,007
  3,139
  3,278
  3,426
  3,582
  3,746
  3,920
  4,103
  4,296
  4,499
  4,714
  4,939
  5,177
  5,426
  5,689
  5,966
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.321
  2.321
  2.320
  2.322
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.322
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
  2.321
Average production assets, $m
  236
  241
  247
  253
  260
  268
  277
  286
  296
  307
  319
  332
  345
  359
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  466
  487
  509
  533
  558
  585
  613
  642
  673
  705
  739
  775
Working capital, $m
  925
  887
  907
  931
  957
  986
  1,018
  1,052
  1,090
  1,130
  1,174
  1,220
  1,270
  1,322
  1,378
  1,438
  1,501
  1,567
  1,638
  1,712
  1,791
  1,874
  1,962
  2,054
  2,151
  2,254
  2,362
  2,475
  2,594
  2,720
  2,852
Total debt, $m
  236
  254
  274
  297
  324
  353
  384
  419
  457
  497
  540
  587
  636
  689
  745
  804
  867
  934
  1,005
  1,079
  1,158
  1,241
  1,328
  1,421
  1,518
  1,620
  1,728
  1,841
  1,961
  2,086
  2,219
Total liabilities, $m
  869
  887
  907
  930
  957
  986
  1,017
  1,052
  1,090
  1,130
  1,173
  1,220
  1,269
  1,322
  1,378
  1,437
  1,500
  1,567
  1,638
  1,712
  1,791
  1,874
  1,961
  2,054
  2,151
  2,253
  2,361
  2,474
  2,594
  2,719
  2,852
Total equity, $m
  1,006
  968
  991
  1,016
  1,045
  1,076
  1,111
  1,149
  1,190
  1,234
  1,281
  1,332
  1,386
  1,444
  1,505
  1,570
  1,638
  1,711
  1,788
  1,870
  1,956
  2,046
  2,142
  2,243
  2,349
  2,461
  2,578
  2,702
  2,833
  2,970
  3,114
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,875
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,002
  2,062
  2,128
  2,201
  2,280
  2,364
  2,454
  2,552
  2,655
  2,766
  2,883
  3,007
  3,138
  3,278
  3,426
  3,582
  3,747
  3,920
  4,103
  4,297
  4,500
  4,714
  4,939
  5,176
  5,427
  5,689
  5,966
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.235
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  183
  251
  257
  264
  272
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  378
  393
  409
  426
  443
  462
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  600
  628
  657
  688
  720
  754
  790
  828
  867
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  46
  46
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  48
  49
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  279
  297
  303
  310
  318
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  385
  389
  405
  421
  438
  456
  476
  496
  518
  541
  565
  591
  618
  647
  677
  708
  742
  777
  814
  852
  893
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
Cash from operations, $m
  278
  293
  283
  287
  292
  298
  305
  313
  322
  331
  342
  343
  355
  368
  382
  397
  413
  430
  448
  467
  487
  508
  531
  554
  579
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -61
Free cash flow, $m
  235
  280
  269
  273
  277
  282
  288
  295
  302
  311
  320
  320
  330
  342
  355
  368
  383
  398
  414
  432
  450
  469
  490
  511
  534
  559
  584
  611
  639
  669
  701
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -86
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  149
  297
  290
  296
  303
  311
  320
  329
  340
  351
  363
  366
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  529
  552
  577
  604
  632
  661
  692
  724
  759
  795
  833
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  335
  267
  270
  274
  279
  285
  291
  299
  307
  316
  315
  326
  337
  350
  363
  377
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  525
  549
  574
  600
  628
  658
  688
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  321
  245
  235
  226
  216
  207
  197
  187
  176
  166
  150
  139
  128
  117
  107
  96
  85
  75
  65
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment; and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. The company distributes equipment, including residential central air conditioners; gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment and systems; and other specialized equipment. It also distributes various parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation material, refrigerants, ductwork, grills, registers, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies. The company serves contractors and dealers who service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. It also exports its products to Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Watsco, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Watsco (WSO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.7
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 83.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 23.5%
Total Debt to Equity 23.5%
Interest Coverage 115
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 15%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Equity 18.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Payout Ratio 69.9%

WSO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WSO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4221 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Watsco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Watsco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WSO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WSO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Watsco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Watsco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WSO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WSO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Watsco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Watsco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WSO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WSO are equal to 5.6%.

Life of production assets of 30.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Watsco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WSO is equal to 20.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1006 million for Watsco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.55 million for Watsco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Watsco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Watsco Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-03-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Watsco Cools Off as Growth Slows   [11:17AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Watsco Declares Quarterly Dividend   [07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Watsco Inc (WSO): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-02-16 02:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)   [Nov-25-16 06:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Watsco Cools Down Despite Dividend Hike   [12:59PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Watsco Reports 2016 Second Quarter Results   [07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Watsco Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-01-16 07:30AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of WSO Financial statements of WSO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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