Intrinsic value of Whitestone REIT - WSR

Previous Close

$13.75

  Intrinsic Value

$1.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

+7%

Previous close

$13.75

 
Intrinsic value

$1.65

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+7%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as WSR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WSR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.83
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  104
  125
  148
  173
  201
  231
  263
  297
  333
  371
  411
  453
  497
  543
  591
  641
  693
  746
  802
  861
  921
  984
  1,049
  1,117
  1,188
  1,261
  1,338
  1,418
  1,501
  1,588
  1,679
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  115
  137
  160
  185
  213
  242
  274
  307
  342
  379
  418
  459
  501
  545
  591
  639
  689
  741
  794
  850
  908
  968
  1,031
  1,096
  1,164
  1,235
  1,309
  1,386
  1,466
  1,549
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  99
  115
  137
  160
  185
  213
  242
  274
  307
  342
  379
  418
  459
  501
  545
  591
  639
  689
  741
  794
  850
  908
  968
  1,031
  1,096
  1,164
  1,235
  1,309
  1,386
  1,466
  1,549
Operating income, $m
  5
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
EBITDA, $m
  27
  41
  48
  57
  66
  75
  86
  97
  109
  121
  134
  148
  162
  177
  193
  209
  226
  244
  262
  281
  301
  322
  343
  365
  388
  412
  437
  463
  491
  519
  549
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  0
  4
  9
  14
  20
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  79
  89
  98
  108
  119
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  282
  300
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  10
  7
  4
  1
  -2
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  5
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  855
  1,023
  1,212
  1,420
  1,646
  1,891
  2,153
  2,432
  2,728
  3,041
  3,369
  3,714
  4,075
  4,451
  4,843
  5,251
  5,676
  6,118
  6,577
  7,054
  7,549
  8,064
  8,600
  9,157
  9,737
  10,340
  10,968
  11,623
  12,306
  13,017
  13,760
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  851
  1,023
  1,212
  1,420
  1,646
  1,891
  2,153
  2,432
  2,728
  3,041
  3,369
  3,714
  4,075
  4,451
  4,843
  5,251
  5,676
  6,118
  6,577
  7,054
  7,549
  8,064
  8,600
  9,157
  9,737
  10,340
  10,968
  11,623
  12,306
  13,017
  13,760
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
Average production assets, $m
  780
  935
  1,108
  1,299
  1,505
  1,729
  1,968
  2,224
  2,495
  2,780
  3,081
  3,396
  3,726
  4,070
  4,429
  4,802
  5,190
  5,594
  6,014
  6,450
  6,903
  7,374
  7,864
  8,373
  8,903
  9,455
  10,029
  10,628
  11,252
  11,903
  12,582
Working capital, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
Total debt, $m
  0
  121
  254
  401
  560
  732
  917
  1,113
  1,322
  1,542
  1,773
  2,016
  2,269
  2,534
  2,811
  3,098
  3,397
  3,708
  4,031
  4,367
  4,716
  5,078
  5,455
  5,848
  6,256
  6,680
  7,123
  7,584
  8,064
  8,565
  9,088
Total liabilities, $m
  600
  720
  853
  1,000
  1,159
  1,331
  1,516
  1,712
  1,921
  2,141
  2,372
  2,615
  2,868
  3,133
  3,410
  3,697
  3,996
  4,307
  4,630
  4,966
  5,315
  5,677
  6,054
  6,447
  6,855
  7,279
  7,722
  8,183
  8,663
  9,164
  9,687
Total equity, $m
  256
  303
  359
  420
  487
  560
  637
  720
  808
  900
  997
  1,099
  1,206
  1,317
  1,434
  1,554
  1,680
  1,811
  1,947
  2,088
  2,235
  2,387
  2,546
  2,710
  2,882
  3,061
  3,247
  3,440
  3,642
  3,853
  4,073
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  856
  1,023
  1,212
  1,420
  1,646
  1,891
  2,153
  2,432
  2,729
  3,041
  3,369
  3,714
  4,074
  4,450
  4,844
  5,251
  5,676
  6,118
  6,577
  7,054
  7,550
  8,064
  8,600
  9,157
  9,737
  10,340
  10,969
  11,623
  12,305
  13,017
  13,760
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.400
  0.710
  0.950
  1.150
  1.310
  1.440
  1.550
  1.640
  1.710
  1.780
  1.830
  1.880
  1.920
  1.960
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  31
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  74
  83
  93
  103
  113
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  297
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
  419
Funds from operations, $m
  37
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  252
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -215
  -230
  -246
  -262
  -279
  -297
  -315
  -334
  -354
  -375
  -397
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -156
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -223
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -373
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -436
  -453
  -471
  -490
  -509
  -530
  -552
  -575
  -599
  -624
  -651
  -679
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -76
  -182
  -204
  -227
  -250
  -273
  -298
  -321
  -345
  -369
  -394
  -418
  -443
  -468
  -495
  -521
  -548
  -577
  -606
  -636
  -668
  -701
  -736
  -771
  -809
  -849
  -890
  -933
  -978
  -1,026
  -1,076
Free cash flow, $m
  -37
  -143
  -161
  -180
  -198
  -217
  -236
  -255
  -274
  -293
  -311
  -330
  -349
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
  -450
  -472
  -494
  -518
  -542
  -568
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -683
  -716
  -750
  -786
  -824
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  121
  133
  146
  159
  172
  184
  197
  208
  220
  231
  243
  254
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  377
  392
  408
  425
  442
  461
  481
  501
  523
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  26
  44
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  255
  270
  285
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  390
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  70
  165
  184
  204
  225
  246
  267
  289
  309
  330
  351
  372
  393
  414
  435
  457
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  605
  632
  662
  693
  725
  759
  795
  833
  872
  913
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -390
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -25
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -285
  -301
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -24
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -38
  -35
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.3
  85.4
  79.3
  73.7
  68.7
  64.1
  60.0
  56.2
  52.8
  49.6
  46.7
  44.0
  41.6
  39.3
  37.2
  35.2
  33.4
  31.7
  30.1
  28.6
  27.2
  25.8
  24.6
  23.4
  22.3
  21.2
  20.2
  19.3
  18.4
  17.5

Whitestone REIT is a real estate investment trust. The Company is engaged in owning and operating commercial properties in culturally diverse markets in various metropolitan areas. The Company's acquisition targets are located in densely populated, culturally diverse neighborhoods, primarily in and around Austin, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Phoenix and San Antonio. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or held interests in 69 commercial properties, including 15 properties in Houston, five properties in Dallas-Fort Worth, three properties in San Antonio, four properties in Austin, 27 properties in the Scottsdale and Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan areas, and one property in Buffalo Grove, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's properties included Heritage Trace Plaza, Headquarters Village, La Mirada, The Marketplace at Central, Mercado at Scottsdale Ranch, Paradise Plaza, Parkside Village North, Pima Norte and Quinlan Crossing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Whitestone REIT (WSR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 81
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.4%
EBITDA Margin 43.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.6%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 640%

WSR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WSR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $104 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Whitestone REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Whitestone REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WSR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WSR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Whitestone REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Whitestone REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WSR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WSR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Whitestone REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Whitestone REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WSR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WSR are equal to 749.5%.

Life of production assets of 35.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Whitestone REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WSR is equal to -3.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $256 million for Whitestone REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.824 million for Whitestone REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Whitestone REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Whitestone REIT Provides Update on Hurricane Harvey   [Aug-28-17 01:28PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Whitestone REIT Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Deal finalized to acquire Galleria-area's Blvd Place   [May-30-17 03:37PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Whitestone reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for March 6th   [Mar-06-17 10:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Whitestone reports 4Q results   [Mar-01-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Whitestone REIT (WSR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 09:43AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of WSR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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