Intrinsic value of Westell Technologies Cl A - WSTL

Previous Close

$3.04

  Intrinsic Value

$0.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

-40%

Previous close

$3.04

 
Intrinsic value

$0.28

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-40%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WSTL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.76
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  199
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  307
  323
  339
  356
  373
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  355
  373
  391
  411
  431
  453
  475
  499
  524
  550
  578
  606
  637
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  105
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  355
  373
  391
  411
  431
  453
  475
  499
  524
  550
  578
  606
  637
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -252
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -16
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  86
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.571
  1.559
  1.565
  1.554
  1.559
  1.563
  1.581
  1.577
  1.573
  1.570
  1.578
  1.568
  1.576
  1.577
  1.578
  1.565
  1.575
  1.579
  1.564
  1.576
  1.575
  1.575
  1.571
  1.574
  1.567
  1.575
  1.566
  1.576
  1.569
  1.575
  1.567
Average production assets, $m
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
Working capital, $m
  44
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
Total liabilities, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Total equity, $m
  67
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  86
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  147
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  206
  216
  227
  238
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -257
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  12
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  239
  250
  264
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -36
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -34
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -58
  -56
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -45
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  59.8
  35.8
  21.4
  12.8
  7.7
  4.6
  2.7
  1.6
  1.0
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Westell Technologies, Inc., through its subsidiary, Westell, Inc., designs and distributes telecommunications products to telephone companies in the United States. The company operates through two segments, In-Building Wireless (IBW) and Communication Solutions Group (CSG). The IBW segment offers distributed antenna systems conditioners; high-performance digital repeaters and bi-directional amplifiers; and system components and antennas, including couplers, dividers, and tappers for wireless service providers and neutral-party hosts to fine tune radio frequency signals. The CSG segment provides intelligent site management solutions, including a suite of remote monitoring and control devices that provide machine-to-machine communication enabling operators to remotely monitor, manage, and control site infrastructure and support systems. It also offers cell site optimization solutions, such as tower mounted amplifiers that are small outdoor-hardened units mounted next to antennas on cell towers, which enables wireless service providers to enhance the performance of a cell site. In addition, this segment provides outside plant solutions comprising integrated cabinets, power distribution panels, copper and fiber connectivity, and synchronous optical networks/time division multiplexing (SONET/TDM) network interface units. The company serves wireless and wireline service providers, multiple systems operators, Internet service providers, systems integrators, cell tower operators, and distributors through field sales organization, distributors, and partners. Westell Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Westell Technologies Cl A (WSTL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.6
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -31
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -17.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Return On Total Capital -21.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Return On Equity -21.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
EBITDA Margin -11.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.4%
Operating Margin -19.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.8%
Net Profit Margin -18.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.8%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

WSTL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WSTL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $88 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Westell Technologies Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Westell Technologies Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WSTL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WSTL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Westell Technologies Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Westell Technologies Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WSTL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 170.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WSTL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Westell Technologies Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Westell Technologies Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WSTL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WSTL are equal to 30.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Westell Technologies Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WSTL is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $67 million for Westell Technologies Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.271 million for Westell Technologies Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Westell Technologies Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Westell Reports Fiscal First Quarter 2018 Revenue of $16.6M   [Aug-09-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Westell Stockholders Approve Reverse Stock Split   [May-31-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Westell reports 4Q loss   [09:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Westell Launches New Public Safety Signal Booster   [Apr-04-17 09:37AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cove Street Capital Giving Up On Westell Technologies Inc (WSTL)?   [Mar-02-17 04:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Westell reports 3Q loss   [Feb-08-17 05:20PM  AP]
▶ Westell reports 1Q loss   [Aug-10-16 04:49PM  AP]
Stock chart of WSTL Financial statements of WSTL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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