Intrinsic value of Watts Water Technologies Cl A - WTS

Previous Close

$77.15

  Intrinsic Value

$1.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$77.15

 
Intrinsic value

$1.47

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.77
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  1,398
  1,496
  1,598
  1,703
  1,813
  1,928
  2,047
  2,171
  2,300
  2,435
  2,576
  2,723
  2,876
  3,036
  3,203
  3,378
  3,561
  3,752
  3,952
  4,161
  4,381
  4,610
  4,851
  5,103
  5,367
  5,644
  5,935
  6,239
  6,558
  6,893
  7,244
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,585
  1,689
  1,797
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
  2,276
  2,409
  2,547
  2,691
  2,788
  2,944
  3,108
  3,280
  3,459
  3,646
  3,841
  4,046
  4,261
  4,485
  4,721
  4,967
  5,225
  5,496
  5,779
  6,076
  6,388
  6,715
  7,058
  7,417
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,253
  1,585
  1,689
  1,797
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
  2,276
  2,409
  2,547
  2,691
  2,788
  2,944
  3,108
  3,280
  3,459
  3,646
  3,841
  4,046
  4,261
  4,485
  4,721
  4,967
  5,225
  5,496
  5,779
  6,076
  6,388
  6,715
  7,058
  7,417
Operating income, $m
  145
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
EBITDA, $m
  196
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
Tax expense, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  84
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  338
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,763
  1,525
  1,629
  1,736
  1,848
  1,965
  2,087
  2,213
  2,345
  2,482
  2,626
  2,775
  2,932
  3,095
  3,265
  3,443
  3,630
  3,825
  4,029
  4,242
  4,466
  4,700
  4,945
  5,202
  5,471
  5,754
  6,050
  6,360
  6,685
  7,027
  7,385
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,425
  1,525
  1,629
  1,736
  1,848
  1,965
  2,087
  2,213
  2,345
  2,482
  2,626
  2,775
  2,932
  3,095
  3,265
  3,443
  3,630
  3,825
  4,029
  4,242
  4,466
  4,700
  4,945
  5,202
  5,471
  5,754
  6,050
  6,360
  6,685
  7,027
  7,385
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
Average production assets, $m
  386
  413
  441
  470
  500
  532
  565
  599
  635
  672
  711
  751
  794
  838
  884
  932
  983
  1,036
  1,091
  1,149
  1,209
  1,272
  1,339
  1,408
  1,481
  1,558
  1,638
  1,722
  1,810
  1,902
  1,999
Working capital, $m
  393
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  285
  302
  320
  338
  358
  378
  400
  422
  445
  470
  495
  522
  549
  578
  609
  641
  674
  709
  746
  785
  825
  867
  912
  958
  1,007
Total debt, $m
  650
  573
  638
  705
  775
  847
  923
  1,002
  1,084
  1,170
  1,259
  1,352
  1,449
  1,551
  1,657
  1,768
  1,884
  2,006
  2,133
  2,266
  2,405
  2,551
  2,704
  2,864
  3,032
  3,208
  3,392
  3,585
  3,788
  4,001
  4,224
Total liabilities, $m
  1,027
  950
  1,015
  1,082
  1,152
  1,224
  1,300
  1,379
  1,461
  1,547
  1,636
  1,729
  1,826
  1,928
  2,034
  2,145
  2,261
  2,383
  2,510
  2,643
  2,782
  2,928
  3,081
  3,241
  3,409
  3,585
  3,769
  3,962
  4,165
  4,378
  4,601
Total equity, $m
  736
  575
  614
  655
  697
  741
  787
  834
  884
  936
  990
  1,046
  1,105
  1,167
  1,231
  1,298
  1,368
  1,442
  1,519
  1,599
  1,684
  1,772
  1,864
  1,961
  2,063
  2,169
  2,281
  2,398
  2,520
  2,649
  2,784
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,763
  1,525
  1,629
  1,737
  1,849
  1,965
  2,087
  2,213
  2,345
  2,483
  2,626
  2,775
  2,931
  3,095
  3,265
  3,443
  3,629
  3,825
  4,029
  4,242
  4,466
  4,700
  4,945
  5,202
  5,472
  5,754
  6,050
  6,360
  6,685
  7,027
  7,385
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.883
  1.000
  1.040
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.279
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  84
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  51
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
Cash from operations, $m
  138
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -114
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -258
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -351
  -370
  -389
  -410
  -431
  -453
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -27
  145
  151
  157
  164
  170
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  313
  330
  347
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  207
  216
  224
  234
  243
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  258
  272
  287
  301
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  407
  429
  451
  473
  498
  523
  550
  578
  608
  639
  671
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  127
  130
  133
  137
  140
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -31
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -330
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  199
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  168
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  160
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.1
  86.8
  81.1
  75.9
  71.1
  66.7
  62.6
  58.9
  55.4
  52.2
  49.9
  47.7
  45.6
  43.6
  41.7
  39.8
  38.1
  36.4
  34.8
  33.3
  31.8
  30.4
  29.0
  27.7
  26.5
  25.3
  24.2
  23.1
  22.1
  21.1

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. is a supplier of products and solutions that manage and conserve the flow of fluids and energy into, through and out of buildings in the residential and commercial markets. The Company, through its subsidiary, Watts Regulator Co., is engaged in manufacturing products and systems focused on the control, conservation and quality of water, and safety of the people using it. Its segments include Americas, Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific. It four product lines include: residential and commercial flow control products, which include products for plumbing and hot water applications; heating, ventilation and air conditioning and gas products, which include boilers, water heaters and heating solutions; drainage and water re-use products, which include drainage products and engineered rain water harvesting solutions, and water quality products, which include point-of-use and point-of-entry water filtration, conditioning and scale prevention systems.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Watts Water Technologies Cl A (WTS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.4
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 69.4%
Total Debt to Equity 88.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Equity 11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 10.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio 29.8%

WTS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Watts Water Technologies Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Watts Water Technologies Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for WTS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Watts Water Technologies Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Watts Water Technologies Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 106.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Watts Water Technologies Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Watts Water Technologies Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTS are equal to 27.6%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Watts Water Technologies Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTS is equal to 13.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $736 million for Watts Water Technologies Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.628 million for Watts Water Technologies Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Watts Water Technologies Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Watts Water reports 4Q loss   [Feb-12-18 04:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Watts Water Technologies, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-08-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Watts Water tops Street 3Q forecasts   [05:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Watts Water Technologies Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-01-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Watts Water Technologies, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-30-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Housing Rally Should Keep Water Stocks Afloat   [Aug-31-17 02:51PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Watts Water tops 2Q profit forecasts   [05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Watts Water Technologies Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-02-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Watts Water Technologies, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Watts Water beats Street 1Q forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Watts Water Technologies Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:47PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of WTS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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