Intrinsic value of Weight Watchers International - WTW

Previous Close

$43.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-432%

Previous close

$43.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-432%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.09
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  1,165
  1,285
  1,411
  1,542
  1,678
  1,821
  1,969
  2,122
  2,282
  2,449
  2,621
  2,801
  2,987
  3,181
  3,383
  3,594
  3,812
  4,041
  4,278
  4,526
  4,785
  5,055
  5,337
  5,632
  5,940
  6,262
  6,599
  6,951
  7,320
  7,707
  8,111
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,085
  1,190
  1,299
  1,412
  1,531
  1,654
  1,782
  1,915
  2,053
  2,197
  2,330
  2,485
  2,646
  2,814
  2,989
  3,171
  3,361
  3,558
  3,765
  3,980
  4,204
  4,439
  4,684
  4,940
  5,208
  5,489
  5,782
  6,089
  6,410
  6,747
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  964
  1,085
  1,190
  1,299
  1,412
  1,531
  1,654
  1,782
  1,915
  2,053
  2,197
  2,330
  2,485
  2,646
  2,814
  2,989
  3,171
  3,361
  3,558
  3,765
  3,980
  4,204
  4,439
  4,684
  4,940
  5,208
  5,489
  5,782
  6,089
  6,410
  6,747
Operating income, $m
  201
  200
  221
  243
  266
  290
  315
  340
  367
  395
  424
  471
  503
  535
  569
  605
  641
  680
  720
  762
  805
  850
  898
  948
  999
  1,054
  1,110
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,365
EBITDA, $m
  254
  265
  291
  318
  346
  376
  406
  438
  471
  505
  541
  578
  617
  657
  698
  742
  787
  834
  883
  934
  988
  1,043
  1,101
  1,162
  1,226
  1,292
  1,362
  1,435
  1,511
  1,591
  1,674
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  83
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  124
  132
  141
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  116
  192
  210
  228
  246
  266
  286
  307
  329
  352
  392
  417
  443
  469
  497
  526
  556
  588
  620
  655
  690
  727
  766
  807
  850
  894
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,094
Tax expense, $m
  17
  31
  52
  57
  61
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
Net income, $m
  68
  85
  140
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  257
  287
  304
  323
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  722
  760
  799

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,271
  1,281
  1,406
  1,537
  1,673
  1,815
  1,963
  2,116
  2,276
  2,441
  2,613
  2,792
  2,978
  3,172
  3,373
  3,583
  3,801
  4,028
  4,265
  4,513
  4,771
  5,040
  5,321
  5,615
  5,922
  6,243
  6,579
  6,931
  7,298
  7,684
  8,087
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,281
  1,406
  1,537
  1,673
  1,815
  1,963
  2,116
  2,276
  2,441
  2,613
  2,792
  2,978
  3,172
  3,373
  3,583
  3,801
  4,028
  4,265
  4,513
  4,771
  5,040
  5,321
  5,615
  5,922
  6,243
  6,579
  6,931
  7,298
  7,684
  8,087
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.003
  1.003
  1.004
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
Average production assets, $m
  836
  921
  1,011
  1,105
  1,203
  1,305
  1,411
  1,522
  1,636
  1,756
  1,879
  2,008
  2,142
  2,281
  2,426
  2,577
  2,734
  2,897
  3,068
  3,245
  3,431
  3,624
  3,827
  4,038
  4,259
  4,490
  4,731
  4,984
  5,249
  5,526
  5,816
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -159
  -175
  -191
  -208
  -226
  -244
  -263
  -283
  -304
  -325
  -347
  -370
  -394
  -420
  -446
  -473
  -501
  -531
  -561
  -593
  -627
  -662
  -698
  -737
  -776
  -818
  -862
  -908
  -956
  -1,006
Total debt, $m
  2,002
  676
  789
  906
  1,029
  1,157
  1,289
  1,427
  1,571
  1,720
  1,875
  2,036
  2,204
  2,378
  2,559
  2,748
  2,944
  3,149
  3,362
  3,584
  3,817
  4,059
  4,312
  4,576
  4,853
  5,142
  5,444
  5,761
  6,092
  6,438
  6,801
Total liabilities, $m
  2,479
  1,153
  1,266
  1,383
  1,506
  1,634
  1,766
  1,904
  2,048
  2,197
  2,352
  2,513
  2,681
  2,855
  3,036
  3,225
  3,421
  3,626
  3,839
  4,061
  4,294
  4,536
  4,789
  5,053
  5,330
  5,619
  5,921
  6,238
  6,569
  6,915
  7,278
Total equity, $m
  -1,208
  128
  141
  154
  167
  182
  196
  212
  228
  244
  261
  279
  298
  317
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  451
  477
  504
  532
  561
  592
  624
  658
  693
  730
  768
  809
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,271
  1,281
  1,407
  1,537
  1,673
  1,816
  1,962
  2,116
  2,276
  2,441
  2,613
  2,792
  2,979
  3,172
  3,373
  3,583
  3,801
  4,029
  4,266
  4,512
  4,771
  5,040
  5,321
  5,614
  5,922
  6,243
  6,579
  6,931
  7,299
  7,683
  8,087
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.657
  5.280
  5.610
  5.900
  6.150
  6.370
  6.570
  6.750
  6.900
  7.050
  7.170
  7.290
  7.400
  7.500
  7.590
  7.670
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.240
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
  8.380
  8.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.133
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  85
  140
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  257
  287
  304
  323
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  722
  760
  799
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  66
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  151
  211
  228
  247
  266
  286
  307
  328
  350
  374
  393
  418
  445
  472
  500
  529
  560
  592
  625
  660
  697
  735
  774
  816
  859
  904
  952
  1,002
  1,054
  1,108
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  165
  226
  245
  264
  284
  304
  326
  348
  371
  395
  416
  442
  469
  497
  526
  557
  588
  622
  656
  692
  730
  770
  811
  854
  899
  946
  996
  1,047
  1,102
  1,158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -294
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -415
  -436
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -530
  -556
  -584
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  35
  87
  97
  107
  118
  129
  140
  152
  165
  178
  187
  201
  215
  231
  246
  263
  279
  297
  315
  334
  354
  375
  396
  418
  442
  466
  491
  518
  545
  574
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -213
  -1,305
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,339
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -212
  34
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -133
  69
  200
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  296
  314
  333
  348
  368
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  538
  566
  596
  628
  660
  695
  731
  768
  808
  849
  892
  937
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -1,424
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,267
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  263
  280
  297
  316
  330
  350
  370
  392
  414
  437
  461
  487
  513
  541
  569
  600
  631
  664
  698
  735
  772
  812
  854
  897
Discount rate, %
 
  14.90
  15.65
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.76
  28.10
  29.50
  30.98
  32.52
  34.15
  35.86
  37.65
  39.53
  41.51
  43.59
  45.77
  48.05
  50.46
  52.98
  55.63
  58.41
  61.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1,102
  140
  128
  114
  101
  87
  74
  61
  50
  39
  30
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Weight Watchers International, Inc. is a provider of weight management services. The Company operates globally through a network of Company-owned and franchise operations. The Company's branded products and services include meetings conducted by its franchisees, digital weight management products provided through its Websites, mobile sites and applications, products sold at meetings, licensed products sold in retail channels and magazine subscriptions and other publications. It operates through four segments: North America, United Kingdom, Continental Europe (CE) and Other. It sells a range of products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values, Weight Watchers magazines, SmartPoints calculators and fitness kits, and certain third-party products, such as activity-tracking monitors. It sells its products through its meetings business, online and to its franchisees. It includes a range of nutritional, activity, behavioral and lifestyle tools.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Weight Watchers International (WTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book -2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -164%
Total Debt to Equity -165.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Weight Watchers International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Weight Watchers International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.9%, whose default value for WTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Weight Watchers International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Weight Watchers International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Weight Watchers International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Weight Watchers International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTW are equal to 71.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Weight Watchers International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTW is equal to -12.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1208 million for Weight Watchers International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.957 million for Weight Watchers International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Weight Watchers International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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Financial statements of WTW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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