Intrinsic value of Weight Watchers International - WTW

Previous Close

$37.68

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-127%

Previous close

$37.68

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-127%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.09
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,165
  1,249
  1,336
  1,427
  1,521
  1,619
  1,721
  1,827
  1,938
  2,053
  2,173
  2,298
  2,429
  2,566
  2,708
  2,857
  3,013
  3,176
  3,346
  3,525
  3,712
  3,907
  4,112
  4,326
  4,551
  4,787
  5,033
  5,292
  5,564
  5,848
  6,147
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,055
  1,128
  1,203
  1,282
  1,363
  1,448
  1,536
  1,628
  1,724
  1,824
  1,912
  2,020
  2,134
  2,253
  2,377
  2,506
  2,642
  2,783
  2,932
  3,087
  3,250
  3,420
  3,598
  3,785
  3,981
  4,187
  4,402
  4,628
  4,864
  5,113
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  964
  1,055
  1,128
  1,203
  1,282
  1,363
  1,448
  1,536
  1,628
  1,724
  1,824
  1,912
  2,020
  2,134
  2,253
  2,377
  2,506
  2,642
  2,783
  2,932
  3,087
  3,250
  3,420
  3,598
  3,785
  3,981
  4,187
  4,402
  4,628
  4,864
  5,113
Operating income, $m
  201
  194
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  329
  349
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  507
  534
  563
  593
  624
  657
  692
  728
  766
  805
  847
  890
  936
  984
  1,034
EBITDA, $m
  254
  258
  276
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  400
  424
  448
  474
  501
  530
  559
  590
  622
  655
  691
  727
  766
  806
  849
  893
  939
  988
  1,039
  1,092
  1,148
  1,207
  1,269
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  84
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  109
  177
  188
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  284
  317
  334
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  499
  524
  551
  578
  607
  638
  670
  703
  738
  775
  813
Tax expense, $m
  17
  30
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
Net income, $m
  68
  80
  129
  138
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  196
  208
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  383
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,271
  1,362
  1,457
  1,556
  1,659
  1,765
  1,877
  1,992
  2,113
  2,239
  2,370
  2,506
  2,649
  2,798
  2,953
  3,116
  3,286
  3,463
  3,649
  3,844
  4,047
  4,261
  4,484
  4,718
  4,963
  5,220
  5,489
  5,771
  6,067
  6,378
  6,703
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,362
  1,457
  1,556
  1,659
  1,765
  1,877
  1,992
  2,113
  2,239
  2,370
  2,506
  2,649
  2,798
  2,953
  3,116
  3,286
  3,463
  3,649
  3,844
  4,047
  4,261
  4,484
  4,718
  4,963
  5,220
  5,489
  5,771
  6,067
  6,378
  6,703
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.003
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
Average production assets, $m
  836
  895
  958
  1,023
  1,090
  1,161
  1,234
  1,310
  1,389
  1,472
  1,558
  1,648
  1,742
  1,840
  1,942
  2,049
  2,160
  2,277
  2,399
  2,527
  2,661
  2,801
  2,948
  3,102
  3,263
  3,432
  3,609
  3,795
  3,989
  4,193
  4,407
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -411
  -433
  -455
  -479
  -503
  -529
  -556
  -585
  -615
Total debt, $m
  2,002
  749
  834
  923
  1,016
  1,112
  1,212
  1,316
  1,425
  1,538
  1,656
  1,779
  1,907
  2,041
  2,181
  2,327
  2,480
  2,640
  2,807
  2,982
  3,166
  3,358
  3,559
  3,769
  3,990
  4,221
  4,463
  4,717
  4,984
  5,263
  5,556
Total liabilities, $m
  2,479
  1,226
  1,311
  1,400
  1,493
  1,589
  1,689
  1,793
  1,902
  2,015
  2,133
  2,256
  2,384
  2,518
  2,658
  2,804
  2,957
  3,117
  3,284
  3,459
  3,643
  3,835
  4,036
  4,246
  4,467
  4,698
  4,940
  5,194
  5,461
  5,740
  6,033
Total equity, $m
  -1,208
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  405
  426
  448
  472
  496
  522
  549
  577
  607
  638
  670
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,271
  1,362
  1,457
  1,556
  1,659
  1,766
  1,877
  1,992
  2,113
  2,239
  2,370
  2,507
  2,649
  2,798
  2,953
  3,116
  3,286
  3,463
  3,649
  3,843
  4,048
  4,261
  4,484
  4,718
  4,963
  5,220
  5,489
  5,771
  6,068
  6,378
  6,703
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.657
  5.500
  5.730
  5.930
  6.120
  6.300
  6.460
  6.610
  6.740
  6.870
  6.990
  7.100
  7.200
  7.300
  7.380
  7.470
  7.550
  7.620
  7.690
  7.760
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.090
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.250
  8.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.133
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  80
  129
  138
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  196
  208
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  383
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  144
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
  481
  506
  532
  559
  587
  617
  648
  681
  715
  751
  789
  828
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  153
  205
  218
  230
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  319
  332
  350
  368
  388
  408
  429
  451
  475
  499
  525
  551
  579
  609
  639
  672
  705
  741
  778
  817
  858
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -104
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -256
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -437
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  48
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  159
  168
  178
  187
  198
  209
  220
  231
  244
  256
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  421
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -213
  -1,253
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,264
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -212
  11
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -133
  59
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  247
  259
  273
  282
  296
  312
  327
  344
  361
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  534
  560
  588
  617
  648
  680
  714
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -1,344
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,285
  171
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  259
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  344
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  535
  561
  589
  618
  649
  681
Discount rate, %
 
  14.90
  15.65
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.76
  28.10
  29.50
  30.98
  32.52
  34.15
  35.86
  37.65
  39.53
  41.51
  43.59
  45.77
  48.05
  50.46
  52.98
  55.63
  58.41
  61.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1,118
  128
  115
  101
  87
  74
  62
  51
  41
  32
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Weight Watchers International, Inc. provides weight management services worldwide. The company operates in four segments: North America, United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and Other. It offers a range of products and services comprising nutritional, exercise, behavioral, and lifestyle tools and approaches. The company also engages in the meetings business, which presents weight management programs, as well as allows members to support each other by sharing their experiences with other people experiencing similar weight management challenges. In addition, it offers various digital subscription products, including Weight Watchers OnlinePlus and a weight management companion for Weight Watchers meeting members to digitally manage the day-to-day aspects of their weight management plan, as well as provides interactive and personalized resources that allow users to follow weight management plan. Further, the company provides Personal Coaching, an online subscription product that offers one-on-one telephonic, e-mail, and text support and personalized planning from a Weight Watchers-certified coach, as well as offers access to other online tools. Additionally it offers various products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food, and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values, Weight Watchers magazines, SmartPoints calculators, and fitness kits, as well as third-party products, such as activity-tracking monitors. The company also licenses the Weight Watchers brand and other intellectual property in frozen foods, baked goods, and other consumer products, as well as endorses selected branded consumer products; and is engaged in publishing magazines, as well issues other publications, such as cookbooks, and food and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values. It offers products through its meeting and franchisee business, as well as online. Weight Watchers International, Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Weight Watchers International (WTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.4
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book -2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -164%
Total Debt to Equity -165.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Weight Watchers International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Weight Watchers International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.9%, whose default value for WTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Weight Watchers International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Weight Watchers International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Weight Watchers International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Weight Watchers International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTW are equal to 71.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Weight Watchers International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTW is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1208 million for Weight Watchers International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.3 million for Weight Watchers International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Weight Watchers International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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Stock chart of WTW Financial statements of WTW Annual reports of WTW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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