Intrinsic value of Weight Watchers International - WTW

Previous Close

$63.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$63.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.09
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,165
  1,188
  1,216
  1,247
  1,282
  1,321
  1,363
  1,410
  1,460
  1,514
  1,572
  1,635
  1,701
  1,772
  1,847
  1,926
  2,011
  2,100
  2,195
  2,294
  2,400
  2,511
  2,628
  2,752
  2,882
  3,020
  3,164
  3,316
  3,476
  3,644
  3,822
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,083
  1,115
  1,151
  1,189
  1,231
  1,276
  1,324
  1,360
  1,415
  1,474
  1,536
  1,602
  1,672
  1,747
  1,825
  1,908
  1,996
  2,089
  2,186
  2,289
  2,397
  2,512
  2,632
  2,758
  2,891
  3,031
  3,179
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  964
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,083
  1,115
  1,151
  1,189
  1,231
  1,276
  1,324
  1,360
  1,415
  1,474
  1,536
  1,602
  1,672
  1,747
  1,825
  1,908
  1,996
  2,089
  2,186
  2,289
  2,397
  2,512
  2,632
  2,758
  2,891
  3,031
  3,179
Operating income, $m
  201
  183
  188
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  248
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  643
EBITDA, $m
  254
  245
  251
  257
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  337
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
  433
  453
  474
  495
  518
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  752
  789
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  83
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  100
  163
  167
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  368
  384
  401
  419
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
Tax expense, $m
  17
  27
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
Net income, $m
  68
  73
  119
  122
  126
  129
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  172
  179
  185
  193
  200
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,271
  1,185
  1,212
  1,243
  1,278
  1,317
  1,359
  1,406
  1,456
  1,510
  1,568
  1,630
  1,696
  1,766
  1,841
  1,921
  2,005
  2,094
  2,188
  2,288
  2,393
  2,504
  2,621
  2,744
  2,874
  3,011
  3,155
  3,306
  3,466
  3,634
  3,810
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,185
  1,212
  1,243
  1,278
  1,317
  1,359
  1,406
  1,456
  1,510
  1,568
  1,630
  1,696
  1,766
  1,841
  1,921
  2,005
  2,094
  2,188
  2,288
  2,393
  2,504
  2,621
  2,744
  2,874
  3,011
  3,155
  3,306
  3,466
  3,634
  3,810
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
Average production assets, $m
  836
  852
  872
  894
  919
  947
  978
  1,011
  1,047
  1,086
  1,127
  1,172
  1,220
  1,270
  1,324
  1,381
  1,442
  1,506
  1,574
  1,645
  1,721
  1,800
  1,885
  1,973
  2,067
  2,165
  2,269
  2,378
  2,492
  2,613
  2,740
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -147
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -474
Total debt, $m
  2,002
  589
  614
  642
  673
  708
  746
  788
  833
  882
  934
  990
  1,049
  1,113
  1,180
  1,251
  1,327
  1,407
  1,492
  1,582
  1,676
  1,776
  1,881
  1,992
  2,109
  2,232
  2,362
  2,499
  2,642
  2,793
  2,952
Total liabilities, $m
  2,479
  1,066
  1,091
  1,119
  1,150
  1,185
  1,223
  1,265
  1,310
  1,359
  1,411
  1,467
  1,526
  1,590
  1,657
  1,728
  1,804
  1,884
  1,969
  2,059
  2,153
  2,253
  2,358
  2,469
  2,586
  2,709
  2,839
  2,976
  3,119
  3,270
  3,429
Total equity, $m
  -1,208
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
  347
  363
  381
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,271
  1,184
  1,212
  1,243
  1,278
  1,317
  1,359
  1,406
  1,456
  1,510
  1,568
  1,630
  1,696
  1,767
  1,841
  1,920
  2,004
  2,093
  2,188
  2,288
  2,392
  2,503
  2,620
  2,743
  2,873
  3,010
  3,154
  3,307
  3,466
  3,633
  3,810
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.657
  4.970
  5.060
  5.160
  5.270
  5.380
  5.490
  5.610
  5.720
  5.840
  5.960
  6.070
  6.190
  6.300
  6.410
  6.520
  6.620
  6.720
  6.820
  6.910
  7.010
  7.090
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.620
  7.690
  7.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.133
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  73
  119
  122
  126
  129
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  172
  179
  185
  193
  200
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  77
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  133
  139
  146
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  135
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  209
  215
  223
  231
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  385
  403
  421
  441
  461
  483
  506
  529
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  138
  185
  190
  195
  201
  208
  214
  222
  229
  238
  242
  252
  262
  272
  284
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  438
  459
  480
  503
  526
  551
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -266
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  77
  121
  121
  123
  124
  127
  129
  132
  135
  138
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  262
  273
  285
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -213
  -1,392
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,341
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -212
  -51
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -133
  27
  145
  150
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  193
  201
  210
  218
  228
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -1,414
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,300
  142
  146
  151
  155
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  427
Discount rate, %
 
  14.90
  15.65
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.76
  28.10
  29.50
  30.98
  32.52
  34.15
  35.86
  37.65
  39.53
  41.51
  43.59
  45.77
  48.05
  50.46
  52.98
  55.63
  58.41
  61.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1,131
  106
  93
  80
  68
  57
  46
  37
  30
  23
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Weight Watchers International, Inc. is a provider of weight management services. The Company operates globally through a network of Company-owned and franchise operations. The Company's branded products and services include meetings conducted by its franchisees, digital weight management products provided through its Websites, mobile sites and applications, products sold at meetings, licensed products sold in retail channels and magazine subscriptions and other publications. It operates through four segments: North America, United Kingdom, Continental Europe (CE) and Other. It sells a range of products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values, Weight Watchers magazines, SmartPoints calculators and fitness kits, and certain third-party products, such as activity-tracking monitors. It sells its products through its meetings business, online and to its franchisees. It includes a range of nutritional, activity, behavioral and lifestyle tools.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Weight Watchers International (WTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.7
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book -3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 47.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -164%
Total Debt to Equity -165.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Weight Watchers International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Weight Watchers International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.9%, whose default value for WTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Weight Watchers International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Weight Watchers International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Weight Watchers International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Weight Watchers International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTW are equal to 71.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Weight Watchers International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTW is equal to -12.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1208 million for Weight Watchers International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.88 million for Weight Watchers International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Weight Watchers International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Grubhub, Autohome Lead 5 Highflying Stocks Triggering This Sell Signal   [Jan-21-18 08:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Why Is Weight Watchers (WTW) Stock At New High?   [Jan-17-18 01:32PM  Zacks]
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▶ Weight Watchers' shares grow after DJ Khaled joins company   [Jan-02-18 10:28PM  CBS News Videos]
▶ 'Wild Thoughts' for Weight Watchers   [04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nasdaq closes above 7K for the first time   [04:00PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Match.com, Constellation Lead New Year's Stocks: Investing Action Plan   [Dec-27-17 04:14PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 3 Stocks That Can Double Again in 2018   [Dec-20-17 03:44PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Weight Watchers Announces Extension Of Debt Maturities   [Nov-21-17 09:24PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stocks Close Slightly Higher; What's Eating Weight Watchers?   [04:18PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of WTW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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