Intrinsic value of Weight Watchers International - WTW

Previous Close

$92.58

  Intrinsic Value

$11.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$92.58

 
Intrinsic value

$11.93

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of WTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.09
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  1,165
  1,466
  1,635
  1,812
  1,998
  2,192
  2,395
  2,606
  2,826
  3,055
  3,293
  3,540
  3,797
  4,064
  4,342
  4,630
  4,931
  5,243
  5,568
  5,907
  6,259
  6,627
  7,011
  7,411
  7,829
  8,265
  8,721
  9,198
  9,696
  10,217
  10,763
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  768
  846
  927
  1,012
  1,101
  1,194
  1,291
  1,392
  1,497
  1,606
  1,624
  1,742
  1,865
  1,992
  2,124
  2,262
  2,405
  2,554
  2,710
  2,872
  3,040
  3,216
  3,400
  3,592
  3,792
  4,001
  4,220
  4,448
  4,688
  4,938
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  361
  369
  377
  385
  394
  402
  411
  420
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  622
  635
  649
  664
  678
Total operating expenses, $m
  964
  1,129
  1,215
  1,304
  1,397
  1,495
  1,596
  1,702
  1,812
  1,926
  2,045
  2,072
  2,200
  2,333
  2,471
  2,613
  2,762
  2,916
  3,076
  3,244
  3,417
  3,597
  3,786
  3,982
  4,187
  4,400
  4,623
  4,855
  5,097
  5,352
  5,616
Operating income, $m
  201
  337
  420
  508
  600
  697
  798
  904
  1,014
  1,128
  1,248
  1,468
  1,597
  1,731
  1,871
  2,017
  2,169
  2,327
  2,491
  2,663
  2,842
  3,029
  3,225
  3,429
  3,642
  3,865
  4,098
  4,343
  4,599
  4,866
  5,147
EBITDA, $m
  254
  547
  643
  744
  851
  963
  1,080
  1,202
  1,329
  1,461
  1,599
  1,742
  1,891
  2,047
  2,208
  2,376
  2,551
  2,733
  2,923
  3,121
  3,328
  3,543
  3,769
  4,004
  4,249
  4,506
  4,775
  5,057
  5,351
  5,659
  5,982
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  108
  48
  57
  66
  75
  85
  95
  106
  117
  129
  141
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
  416
  440
  465
  491
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  230
  372
  451
  534
  622
  713
  808
  908
  1,011
  1,119
  1,327
  1,443
  1,565
  1,691
  1,823
  1,960
  2,103
  2,252
  2,407
  2,569
  2,738
  2,915
  3,100
  3,293
  3,495
  3,706
  3,927
  4,159
  4,401
  4,656
Tax expense, $m
  17
  62
  100
  122
  144
  168
  193
  218
  245
  273
  302
  358
  390
  423
  457
  492
  529
  568
  608
  650
  694
  739
  787
  837
  889
  944
  1,001
  1,060
  1,123
  1,188
  1,257
Net income, $m
  68
  168
  272
  329
  390
  454
  520
  590
  663
  738
  817
  969
  1,054
  1,142
  1,235
  1,331
  1,431
  1,535
  1,644
  1,757
  1,875
  1,999
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,551
  2,705
  2,867
  3,036
  3,213
  3,399

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,271
  1,398
  1,558
  1,727
  1,904
  2,089
  2,283
  2,484
  2,694
  2,912
  3,139
  3,375
  3,620
  3,874
  4,139
  4,414
  4,700
  4,998
  5,308
  5,631
  5,967
  6,318
  6,683
  7,065
  7,463
  7,879
  8,314
  8,768
  9,243
  9,740
  10,260
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,398
  1,558
  1,727
  1,904
  2,089
  2,283
  2,484
  2,694
  2,912
  3,139
  3,375
  3,620
  3,874
  4,139
  4,414
  4,700
  4,998
  5,308
  5,631
  5,967
  6,318
  6,683
  7,065
  7,463
  7,879
  8,314
  8,768
  9,243
  9,740
  10,260
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.003
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
Average production assets, $m
  836
  1,138
  1,269
  1,406
  1,550
  1,701
  1,858
  2,022
  2,193
  2,371
  2,555
  2,747
  2,947
  3,154
  3,369
  3,593
  3,826
  4,068
  4,321
  4,583
  4,857
  5,143
  5,440
  5,751
  6,075
  6,414
  6,768
  7,137
  7,524
  7,929
  8,352
Working capital, $m
  -57
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -207
  -221
  -236
  -251
  -267
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -378
  -399
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -495
  -521
  -549
Total debt, $m
  2,002
  820
  964
  1,116
  1,275
  1,442
  1,616
  1,797
  1,986
  2,182
  2,386
  2,599
  2,819
  3,048
  3,286
  3,534
  3,792
  4,060
  4,338
  4,629
  4,932
  5,247
  5,576
  5,920
  6,278
  6,653
  7,044
  7,453
  7,880
  8,328
  8,796
Total liabilities, $m
  2,479
  1,258
  1,403
  1,555
  1,714
  1,880
  2,054
  2,236
  2,425
  2,621
  2,825
  3,037
  3,258
  3,487
  3,725
  3,973
  4,230
  4,498
  4,777
  5,068
  5,370
  5,686
  6,015
  6,358
  6,717
  7,091
  7,482
  7,891
  8,319
  8,766
  9,234
Total equity, $m
  -1,208
  140
  156
  173
  190
  209
  228
  248
  269
  291
  314
  337
  362
  387
  414
  441
  470
  500
  531
  563
  597
  632
  668
  706
  746
  788
  831
  877
  924
  974
  1,026
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,271
  1,398
  1,559
  1,728
  1,904
  2,089
  2,282
  2,484
  2,694
  2,912
  3,139
  3,374
  3,620
  3,874
  4,139
  4,414
  4,700
  4,998
  5,308
  5,631
  5,967
  6,318
  6,683
  7,064
  7,463
  7,879
  8,313
  8,768
  9,243
  9,740
  10,260
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.657
  5.860
  6.190
  6.460
  6.700
  6.900
  7.080
  7.230
  7.370
  7.490
  7.600
  7.700
  7.790
  7.870
  7.940
  8.010
  8.070
  8.120
  8.170
  8.220
  8.260
  8.310
  8.340
  8.380
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.133
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  168
  272
  329
  390
  454
  520
  590
  663
  738
  817
  969
  1,054
  1,142
  1,235
  1,331
  1,431
  1,535
  1,644
  1,757
  1,875
  1,999
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,551
  2,705
  2,867
  3,036
  3,213
  3,399
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  209
  223
  236
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  351
  275
  295
  315
  337
  359
  383
  407
  432
  458
  486
  514
  544
  575
  608
  641
  677
  714
  752
  793
  835
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  377
  494
  566
  641
  720
  802
  888
  978
  1,071
  1,168
  1,243
  1,348
  1,458
  1,572
  1,690
  1,813
  1,942
  2,076
  2,215
  2,361
  2,513
  2,672
  2,838
  3,011
  3,192
  3,382
  3,581
  3,788
  4,006
  4,234
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  385
  503
  575
  650
  730
  812
  899
  989
  1,083
  1,180
  1,256
  1,361
  1,471
  1,586
  1,705
  1,829
  1,958
  2,092
  2,233
  2,379
  2,532
  2,692
  2,858
  3,033
  3,215
  3,405
  3,605
  3,814
  4,033
  4,262
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -202
  -219
  -237
  -256
  -275
  -295
  -315
  -337
  -359
  -383
  -407
  -432
  -458
  -486
  -514
  -544
  -575
  -608
  -641
  -677
  -714
  -752
  -793
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -324
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -423
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -225
  -245
  -264
  -285
  -306
  -327
  -350
  -373
  -397
  -422
  -448
  -474
  -502
  -530
  -561
  -592
  -625
  -659
  -695
  -732
  -771
  -812
  -855
  -899
  -947
  -995
  -1,047
  -1,101
  -1,157
  -1,216
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  160
  258
  310
  366
  424
  485
  549
  616
  686
  758
  808
  887
  969
  1,055
  1,144
  1,236
  1,333
  1,433
  1,538
  1,647
  1,761
  1,880
  2,004
  2,133
  2,269
  2,410
  2,558
  2,713
  2,876
  3,046
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -213
  -1,004
  144
  152
  159
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  988
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -212
  -16
  144
  152
  159
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -133
  144
  403
  462
  525
  590
  659
  730
  805
  882
  963
  1,021
  1,108
  1,199
  1,293
  1,392
  1,494
  1,601
  1,712
  1,828
  1,950
  2,076
  2,209
  2,347
  2,492
  2,643
  2,801
  2,967
  3,141
  3,323
  3,514
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -1,156
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1,012
  387
  446
  507
  572
  640
  710
  784
  860
  940
  997
  1,083
  1,173
  1,267
  1,364
  1,465
  1,571
  1,681
  1,796
  1,916
  2,041
  2,172
  2,309
  2,452
  2,601
  2,758
  2,922
  3,093
  3,273
  3,462
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -886
  293
  288
  276
  258
  235
  210
  182
  155
  128
  101
  80
  61
  46
  33
  23
  16
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Weight Watchers International, Inc. is a provider of weight management services. The Company operates globally through a network of Company-owned and franchise operations. The Company's branded products and services include meetings conducted by its franchisees, digital weight management products provided through its Websites, mobile sites and applications, products sold at meetings, licensed products sold in retail channels and magazine subscriptions and other publications. It operates through four segments: North America, United Kingdom, Continental Europe (CE) and Other. It sells a range of products, including bars, snacks, cookbooks, food and restaurant guides with SmartPoints values, Weight Watchers magazines, SmartPoints calculators and fitness kits, and certain third-party products, such as activity-tracking monitors. It sells its products through its meetings business, online and to its franchisees. It includes a range of nutritional, activity, behavioral and lifestyle tools.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Weight Watchers International (WTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 87
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book -4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 49.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 69.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -164%
Total Debt to Equity -165.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity -5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1307 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Weight Watchers International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Weight Watchers International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for WTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Weight Watchers International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Weight Watchers International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $353 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Weight Watchers International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Weight Watchers International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WTW stock is equal to 1.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WTW are equal to 77.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Weight Watchers International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WTW is equal to -5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1016 million for Weight Watchers International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64 million for Weight Watchers International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Weight Watchers International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of WTW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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