Intrinsic value of Western Union - WU

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$19.86

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$19.86

 
Intrinsic value

$20.73

 
Up/down potential

+4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,423
  5,531
  5,659
  5,804
  5,967
  6,148
  6,347
  6,563
  6,797
  7,049
  7,320
  7,609
  7,918
  8,247
  8,596
  8,967
  9,360
  9,776
  10,216
  10,680
  11,171
  11,689
  12,235
  12,811
  13,417
  14,056
  14,728
  15,436
  16,181
  16,965
  17,789
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,408
  4,502
  4,609
  4,730
  4,864
  5,011
  5,171
  5,344
  5,530
  5,730
  5,628
  5,857
  6,100
  6,358
  6,633
  6,923
  7,231
  7,556
  7,900
  8,263
  8,646
  9,050
  9,476
  9,924
  10,397
  10,894
  11,418
  11,969
  12,549
  13,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,939
  4,408
  4,502
  4,609
  4,730
  4,864
  5,011
  5,171
  5,344
  5,530
  5,730
  5,628
  5,857
  6,100
  6,358
  6,633
  6,923
  7,231
  7,556
  7,900
  8,263
  8,646
  9,050
  9,476
  9,924
  10,397
  10,894
  11,418
  11,969
  12,549
  13,158
Operating income, $m
  484
  1,124
  1,157
  1,195
  1,237
  1,284
  1,336
  1,392
  1,453
  1,519
  1,589
  1,981
  2,061
  2,147
  2,238
  2,334
  2,436
  2,545
  2,659
  2,780
  2,908
  3,043
  3,185
  3,335
  3,493
  3,659
  3,834
  4,018
  4,212
  4,416
  4,631
EBITDA, $m
  747
  1,500
  1,534
  1,574
  1,618
  1,667
  1,721
  1,780
  1,843
  1,911
  1,985
  2,063
  2,147
  2,236
  2,331
  2,431
  2,538
  2,651
  2,770
  2,896
  3,029
  3,169
  3,317
  3,474
  3,638
  3,811
  3,994
  4,185
  4,387
  4,600
  4,823
Interest expense (income), $m
  159
  148
  112
  121
  132
  144
  158
  173
  189
  207
  226
  246
  268
  291
  316
  342
  370
  399
  431
  464
  498
  535
  574
  615
  659
  704
  752
  803
  856
  912
  971
Earnings before tax, $m
  342
  976
  1,045
  1,073
  1,105
  1,140
  1,178
  1,219
  1,264
  1,312
  1,363
  1,735
  1,793
  1,856
  1,922
  1,992
  2,067
  2,145
  2,229
  2,317
  2,409
  2,507
  2,611
  2,719
  2,834
  2,955
  3,082
  3,216
  3,356
  3,504
  3,660
Tax expense, $m
  89
  264
  282
  290
  298
  308
  318
  329
  341
  354
  368
  468
  484
  501
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  625
  651
  677
  705
  734
  765
  798
  832
  868
  906
  946
  988
Net income, $m
  253
  712
  763
  784
  807
  832
  860
  890
  923
  958
  995
  1,266
  1,309
  1,355
  1,403
  1,454
  1,509
  1,566
  1,627
  1,691
  1,759
  1,830
  1,906
  1,985
  2,069
  2,157
  2,250
  2,347
  2,450
  2,558
  2,672

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  878
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,420
  8,711
  8,911
  9,140
  9,397
  9,682
  9,995
  10,335
  10,704
  11,101
  11,527
  11,983
  12,469
  12,987
  13,537
  14,121
  14,740
  15,395
  16,088
  16,819
  17,592
  18,408
  19,268
  20,174
  21,129
  22,135
  23,194
  24,309
  25,482
  26,716
  28,014
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,542
  8,711
  8,911
  9,140
  9,397
  9,682
  9,995
  10,335
  10,704
  11,101
  11,527
  11,983
  12,469
  12,987
  13,537
  14,121
  14,740
  15,395
  16,088
  16,819
  17,592
  18,408
  19,268
  20,174
  21,129
  22,135
  23,194
  24,309
  25,482
  26,716
  28,014
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
Average production assets, $m
  911
  929
  951
  975
  1,003
  1,033
  1,066
  1,103
  1,142
  1,184
  1,230
  1,278
  1,330
  1,385
  1,444
  1,506
  1,572
  1,642
  1,716
  1,794
  1,877
  1,964
  2,055
  2,152
  2,254
  2,361
  2,474
  2,593
  2,718
  2,850
  2,989
Working capital, $m
  0
  -896
  -917
  -940
  -967
  -996
  -1,028
  -1,063
  -1,101
  -1,142
  -1,186
  -1,233
  -1,283
  -1,336
  -1,393
  -1,453
  -1,516
  -1,584
  -1,655
  -1,730
  -1,810
  -1,894
  -1,982
  -2,075
  -2,174
  -2,277
  -2,386
  -2,501
  -2,621
  -2,748
  -2,882
Total debt, $m
  2,786
  2,108
  2,288
  2,494
  2,726
  2,982
  3,263
  3,570
  3,901
  4,259
  4,642
  5,052
  5,490
  5,956
  6,451
  6,977
  7,534
  8,123
  8,747
  9,406
  10,101
  10,835
  11,609
  12,425
  13,284
  14,190
  15,143
  16,146
  17,202
  18,312
  19,481
Total liabilities, $m
  8,517
  7,840
  8,020
  8,226
  8,458
  8,714
  8,995
  9,302
  9,633
  9,991
  10,374
  10,784
  11,222
  11,688
  12,183
  12,709
  13,266
  13,855
  14,479
  15,138
  15,833
  16,567
  17,341
  18,157
  19,016
  19,922
  20,875
  21,878
  22,934
  24,044
  25,213
Total equity, $m
  902
  871
  891
  914
  940
  968
  999
  1,034
  1,070
  1,110
  1,153
  1,198
  1,247
  1,299
  1,354
  1,412
  1,474
  1,539
  1,609
  1,682
  1,759
  1,841
  1,927
  2,017
  2,113
  2,214
  2,319
  2,431
  2,548
  2,672
  2,801
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,419
  8,711
  8,911
  9,140
  9,398
  9,682
  9,994
  10,336
  10,703
  11,101
  11,527
  11,982
  12,469
  12,987
  13,537
  14,121
  14,740
  15,394
  16,088
  16,820
  17,592
  18,408
  19,268
  20,174
  21,129
  22,136
  23,194
  24,309
  25,482
  26,716
  28,014
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.089
  2.420
  2.570
  2.730
  2.900
  3.080
  3.270
  3.450
  3.640
  3.840
  4.030
  4.220
  4.400
  4.590
  4.770
  4.940
  5.110
  5.280
  5.440
  5.590
  5.740
  5.890
  6.030
  6.160
  6.290
  6.410
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.850
  6.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.003
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  253
  712
  763
  784
  807
  832
  860
  890
  923
  958
  995
  1,266
  1,309
  1,355
  1,403
  1,454
  1,509
  1,566
  1,627
  1,691
  1,759
  1,830
  1,906
  1,985
  2,069
  2,157
  2,250
  2,347
  2,450
  2,558
  2,672
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  263
  376
  378
  379
  381
  383
  385
  387
  390
  393
  396
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
Funds from operations, $m
  1,643
  1,089
  1,140
  1,163
  1,187
  1,215
  1,245
  1,277
  1,313
  1,350
  1,391
  1,349
  1,395
  1,444
  1,496
  1,551
  1,610
  1,672
  1,738
  1,807
  1,880
  1,957
  2,038
  2,124
  2,214
  2,309
  2,409
  2,515
  2,625
  2,742
  2,865
Change in working capital, $m
  601
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
Cash from operations, $m
  1,042
  1,080
  1,161
  1,186
  1,214
  1,244
  1,277
  1,312
  1,350
  1,391
  1,435
  1,396
  1,445
  1,497
  1,553
  1,612
  1,674
  1,739
  1,809
  1,882
  1,959
  2,041
  2,127
  2,217
  2,313
  2,413
  2,518
  2,629
  2,746
  2,869
  2,998
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -271
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
Free cash flow, $m
  771
  1,003
  1,080
  1,100
  1,124
  1,149
  1,177
  1,207
  1,240
  1,275
  1,313
  1,268
  1,311
  1,356
  1,405
  1,456
  1,511
  1,568
  1,629
  1,693
  1,761
  1,833
  1,908
  1,988
  2,072
  2,160
  2,253
  2,351
  2,454
  2,562
  2,676
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -430
  -678
  180
  206
  231
  256
  281
  306
  332
  357
  383
  410
  438
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  623
  659
  696
  734
  774
  816
  860
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -467
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -897
  -678
  180
  206
  231
  256
  281
  306
  332
  357
  383
  410
  438
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  623
  659
  696
  734
  774
  816
  860
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -126
  325
  1,260
  1,307
  1,355
  1,406
  1,458
  1,514
  1,572
  1,632
  1,696
  1,678
  1,748
  1,822
  1,900
  1,982
  2,067
  2,158
  2,252
  2,352
  2,457
  2,567
  2,682
  2,804
  2,931
  3,065
  3,206
  3,354
  3,509
  3,673
  3,844
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  503
  -847
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  878
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  356
  1,240
  1,284
  1,329
  1,377
  1,427
  1,480
  1,535
  1,593
  1,654
  1,632
  1,700
  1,770
  1,845
  1,923
  2,006
  2,092
  2,183
  2,279
  2,380
  2,485
  2,596
  2,713
  2,836
  2,965
  3,100
  3,243
  3,392
  3,549
  3,714
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  330
  1,057
  999
  937
  871
  802
  732
  660
  590
  520
  431
  371
  316
  264
  217
  176
  140
  109
  83
  62
  46
  33
  23
  15
  10
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Western Union Company provides money movement and payment services worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Consumer-to-Consumer, Consumer-to-Business, and Business Solutions. The Consumer-to-Consumer segment facilitates money transfers between two consumers, primarily through a network of third-party agents. This segment offers international cross-border transfers and intra-country transfers, as well as money transfer transactions through Websites and mobile devices. The Consumer-to-Business segment facilitates bill payments from consumers to businesses and other organizations, including utilities, auto finance companies, mortgage servicers, financial service providers, and government agencies. The Business Solutions segment provides payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border and cross-currency transactions for small and medium size enterprises, other organizations, and individuals. The company serves primarily through a network of agents. The Western Union Company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Western Union (WU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 10.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 308.9%
Total Debt to Equity 308.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Return On Equity 21.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Effective Tax Rate 26%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Payout Ratio 123.3%

WU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5423 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Western Union. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Western Union. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for WU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Western Union, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Western Union.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Western Union.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Western Union. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WU are equal to 16.8%.

Life of production assets of 15.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Western Union operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WU is equal to -16.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $902 million for Western Union - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 473.219 million for Western Union is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Western Union at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.4 billion.


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Stock chart of WU Financial statements of WU
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