Intrinsic value of WhiteWave Foods - WWAV

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$56.24

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$56.24

 
Intrinsic value

$16.86

 
Up/down potential

-70%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WWAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.59
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  4,198
  4,307
  4,429
  4,565
  4,713
  4,875
  5,049
  5,237
  5,439
  5,655
  5,885
  6,130
  6,390
  6,667
  6,959
  7,269
  7,597
  7,943
  8,308
  8,693
  9,100
  9,528
  9,980
  10,455
  10,956
  11,482
  12,037
  12,620
  13,233
  13,878
  14,557
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,395
  3,487
  3,589
  3,701
  3,823
  3,955
  4,097
  4,250
  4,413
  4,586
  4,630
  4,826
  5,035
  5,256
  5,490
  5,737
  5,999
  6,275
  6,566
  6,873
  7,196
  7,537
  7,896
  8,274
  8,672
  9,091
  9,531
  9,995
  10,482
  10,994
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  507
  520
  533
  546
  560
  574
  588
  603
  618
  634
  649
  666
  682
  699
  717
  735
  753
  772
  791
  811
  831
  852
  873
  895
  918
  941
  964
  988
  1,013
  1,038
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,796
  3,902
  4,007
  4,122
  4,247
  4,383
  4,529
  4,685
  4,853
  5,031
  5,220
  5,279
  5,492
  5,717
  5,955
  6,207
  6,472
  6,752
  7,047
  7,357
  7,684
  8,027
  8,389
  8,769
  9,169
  9,590
  10,032
  10,495
  10,983
  11,495
  12,032
Operating income, $m
  402
  405
  422
  442
  465
  491
  520
  552
  586
  624
  665
  851
  898
  949
  1,004
  1,062
  1,124
  1,191
  1,261
  1,336
  1,416
  1,500
  1,590
  1,685
  1,786
  1,892
  2,005
  2,124
  2,250
  2,383
  2,524
EBITDA, $m
  541
  634
  654
  677
  703
  732
  764
  800
  838
  881
  926
  975
  1,028
  1,085
  1,145
  1,210
  1,279
  1,352
  1,430
  1,513
  1,601
  1,694
  1,793
  1,897
  2,008
  2,126
  2,250
  2,381
  2,519
  2,665
  2,820
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  315
Earnings before tax, $m
  327
  332
  346
  363
  383
  405
  430
  457
  487
  520
  555
  735
  777
  821
  869
  920
  974
  1,033
  1,095
  1,161
  1,231
  1,305
  1,384
  1,468
  1,557
  1,651
  1,750
  1,856
  1,967
  2,085
  2,210
Tax expense, $m
  102
  90
  94
  98
  103
  109
  116
  123
  132
  140
  150
  199
  210
  222
  235
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
  332
  352
  374
  396
  420
  446
  473
  501
  531
  563
  597
Net income, $m
  215
  242
  253
  265
  280
  296
  314
  334
  356
  380
  405
  537
  567
  600
  634
  672
  711
  754
  799
  847
  898
  953
  1,010
  1,072
  1,136
  1,205
  1,278
  1,355
  1,436
  1,522
  1,613

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,469
  4,539
  4,668
  4,810
  4,967
  5,137
  5,321
  5,519
  5,731
  5,959
  6,201
  6,459
  6,734
  7,025
  7,333
  7,660
  8,005
  8,369
  8,754
  9,161
  9,589
  10,040
  10,516
  11,017
  11,544
  12,099
  12,684
  13,298
  13,944
  14,624
  15,339
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,423
  4,539
  4,668
  4,810
  4,967
  5,137
  5,321
  5,519
  5,731
  5,959
  6,201
  6,459
  6,734
  7,025
  7,333
  7,660
  8,005
  8,369
  8,754
  9,161
  9,589
  10,040
  10,516
  11,017
  11,544
  12,099
  12,684
  13,298
  13,944
  14,624
  15,339
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
  0.949
Average production assets, $m
  2,232
  2,291
  2,356
  2,428
  2,507
  2,593
  2,686
  2,786
  2,894
  3,008
  3,131
  3,261
  3,400
  3,547
  3,702
  3,867
  4,041
  4,225
  4,420
  4,625
  4,841
  5,069
  5,309
  5,562
  5,828
  6,109
  6,404
  6,714
  7,040
  7,383
  7,744
Working capital, $m
  103
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  371
  389
  408
Total debt, $m
  2,140
  2,170
  2,257
  2,354
  2,459
  2,574
  2,699
  2,833
  2,976
  3,130
  3,294
  3,469
  3,654
  3,851
  4,059
  4,280
  4,513
  4,760
  5,020
  5,295
  5,584
  5,889
  6,211
  6,549
  6,906
  7,281
  7,676
  8,092
  8,528
  8,988
  9,471
Total liabilities, $m
  3,038
  3,068
  3,155
  3,252
  3,357
  3,472
  3,597
  3,731
  3,874
  4,028
  4,192
  4,367
  4,552
  4,749
  4,957
  5,178
  5,411
  5,658
  5,918
  6,193
  6,482
  6,787
  7,109
  7,447
  7,804
  8,179
  8,574
  8,990
  9,426
  9,886
  10,369
Total equity, $m
  1,431
  1,471
  1,512
  1,558
  1,609
  1,664
  1,724
  1,788
  1,857
  1,931
  2,009
  2,093
  2,182
  2,276
  2,376
  2,482
  2,594
  2,712
  2,836
  2,968
  3,107
  3,253
  3,407
  3,569
  3,740
  3,920
  4,109
  4,309
  4,518
  4,738
  4,970
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,469
  4,539
  4,667
  4,810
  4,966
  5,136
  5,321
  5,519
  5,731
  5,959
  6,201
  6,460
  6,734
  7,025
  7,333
  7,660
  8,005
  8,370
  8,754
  9,161
  9,589
  10,040
  10,516
  11,016
  11,544
  12,099
  12,683
  13,299
  13,944
  14,624
  15,339
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.495
  1.480
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  242
  253
  265
  280
  296
  314
  334
  356
  380
  405
  537
  567
  600
  634
  672
  711
  754
  799
  847
  898
  953
  1,010
  1,072
  1,136
  1,205
  1,278
  1,355
  1,436
  1,522
  1,613
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  139
  229
  232
  234
  237
  241
  244
  248
  252
  256
  261
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
Funds from operations, $m
  229
  471
  484
  500
  517
  536
  558
  582
  608
  636
  667
  661
  697
  735
  776
  819
  866
  915
  968
  1,024
  1,083
  1,146
  1,213
  1,284
  1,359
  1,438
  1,522
  1,611
  1,705
  1,804
  1,909
Change in working capital, $m
  -87
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  316
  543
  481
  496
  513
  532
  553
  577
  602
  630
  660
  654
  690
  727
  767
  810
  856
  905
  958
  1,013
  1,072
  1,134
  1,200
  1,270
  1,345
  1,423
  1,507
  1,595
  1,688
  1,786
  1,890
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
New CAPEX, $m
  -291
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -361
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -308
  -144
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -433
  -456
  -478
  -502
  -528
  -554
  -582
  -612
  -643
Free cash flow, $m
  8
  399
  328
  334
  341
  350
  361
  374
  388
  405
  423
  405
  427
  450
  476
  504
  535
  567
  602
  639
  679
  721
  767
  815
  866
  921
  979
  1,040
  1,105
  1,174
  1,247
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  76
  87
  96
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  185
  197
  208
  221
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  305
  322
  339
  357
  375
  395
  415
  437
  459
  483
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  76
  87
  96
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  185
  197
  208
  221
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  305
  322
  339
  357
  375
  395
  415
  437
  459
  483
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  475
  416
  430
  447
  465
  486
  508
  532
  558
  587
  579
  612
  647
  685
  725
  768
  814
  862
  914
  969
  1,027
  1,088
  1,154
  1,223
  1,296
  1,373
  1,455
  1,542
  1,633
  1,730
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -220
  -40
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -232
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  435
  374
  384
  396
  410
  426
  444
  463
  485
  508
  496
  523
  553
  585
  619
  656
  695
  737
  782
  830
  880
  934
  991
  1,052
  1,116
  1,184
  1,256
  1,332
  1,413
  1,499
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  400
  313
  291
  269
  247
  225
  203
  182
  161
  141
  114
  97
  82
  68
  56
  45
  35
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The WhiteWave Foods Company, a consumer packaged food and beverage company, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded plant-based foods and beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, dairy products, and organic produce in North America and Europe. It operates through two segments, Americas Foods & Beverages, and Europe Foods & Beverages. The Americas Foods & Beverages segment offers plant-based foods and beverages, such as soymilk, almond milk, coconut and cashew milk, ice cream and frozen novelty products, plant-based yogurts, and Vega plant-based nutritional products under the Silk and So Delicious brands; dairy products, including Horizon Organic milk, yogurt, cheese, and other dairy products; Wallaby Organic Greek and Australian yogurts; Kefir beverages, as well as Horizon branded macaroni and cheese, and snack foods; and coffee creamers and ready-to-drink beverages under the International Delight, Magicow, Dunkin Donuts, and LAND O LAKES brand names. This segment also provides packaged salads and greens, fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, dried fruits, and produce-based snacks under the Earthbound Farm brand. The Europe Foods & Beverages segment offers beverages using soy, almond, coconut, hazelnut, rice, oat, and other plant-based ingredients under the Alpro and Provamel brands; and plant-based alternatives to yogurt, culinary creams, desserts, and margarine. The company sells its products to grocery stores, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, and health food stores, as well as various away-from-home channels, including restaurants and foodservice outlets. It markets its products through direct sales force, independent brokers, regional brokers, and distributors, as well as through a network of partners. The WhiteWave Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  WhiteWave Foods (WWAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 398.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 145.4%
Total Debt to Equity 149.5%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
EBITDA Margin 12.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

WWAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WWAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4198 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by WhiteWave Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of WhiteWave Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WWAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for WWAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of WhiteWave Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of WhiteWave Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WWAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $495 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WWAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for WhiteWave Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for WhiteWave Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WWAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WWAV are equal to 53.2%.

Life of production assets of 26.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in WhiteWave Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WWAV is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1431 million for WhiteWave Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 179.341 million for WhiteWave Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of WhiteWave Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.1 billion.


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Stock chart of WWAV Financial statements of WWAV
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