Intrinsic value of Xilinx - XLNX

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$63.11

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$63.11

 
Intrinsic value

$38.16

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XLNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.86
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,214
  2,258
  2,310
  2,370
  2,436
  2,510
  2,591
  2,679
  2,775
  2,878
  2,988
  3,106
  3,233
  3,367
  3,509
  3,661
  3,821
  3,991
  4,171
  4,360
  4,561
  4,772
  4,995
  5,230
  5,478
  5,738
  6,013
  6,302
  6,606
  6,926
  7,263
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,079
  1,104
  1,132
  1,163
  1,198
  1,236
  1,277
  1,322
  1,371
  1,423
  1,463
  1,522
  1,585
  1,652
  1,724
  1,799
  1,879
  1,964
  2,053
  2,147
  2,247
  2,352
  2,462
  2,579
  2,702
  2,831
  2,967
  3,110
  3,261
  3,419
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  509
  522
  535
  549
  562
  576
  591
  606
  621
  636
  652
  668
  685
  702
  720
  738
  756
  775
  795
  814
  835
  856
  877
  899
  921
  944
  968
  992
  1,017
  1,042
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,544
  1,588
  1,626
  1,667
  1,712
  1,760
  1,812
  1,868
  1,928
  1,992
  2,059
  2,115
  2,190
  2,270
  2,354
  2,444
  2,537
  2,635
  2,739
  2,848
  2,961
  3,082
  3,208
  3,339
  3,478
  3,623
  3,775
  3,935
  4,102
  4,278
  4,461
Operating income, $m
  670
  670
  684
  703
  725
  750
  779
  811
  847
  886
  929
  992
  1,042
  1,096
  1,155
  1,217
  1,284
  1,356
  1,432
  1,513
  1,599
  1,691
  1,788
  1,891
  2,000
  2,115
  2,238
  2,367
  2,504
  2,648
  2,801
EBITDA, $m
  739
  731
  747
  767
  790
  817
  847
  881
  919
  961
  1,006
  1,055
  1,108
  1,165
  1,226
  1,292
  1,362
  1,437
  1,517
  1,601
  1,692
  1,787
  1,889
  1,997
  2,111
  2,232
  2,360
  2,495
  2,638
  2,789
  2,948
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  35
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  124
Earnings before tax, $m
  637
  635
  659
  676
  697
  721
  748
  779
  813
  850
  891
  951
  999
  1,051
  1,106
  1,166
  1,229
  1,298
  1,370
  1,447
  1,529
  1,617
  1,709
  1,808
  1,912
  2,022
  2,139
  2,262
  2,393
  2,531
  2,677
Tax expense, $m
  86
  171
  178
  183
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  230
  241
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  370
  391
  413
  437
  462
  488
  516
  546
  578
  611
  646
  683
  723
Net income, $m
  551
  463
  481
  494
  509
  526
  546
  569
  593
  621
  650
  694
  729
  767
  808
  851
  898
  947
  1,000
  1,057
  1,117
  1,180
  1,248
  1,320
  1,396
  1,476
  1,561
  1,652
  1,747
  1,848
  1,954

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3,338
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,819
  1,511
  1,545
  1,585
  1,630
  1,679
  1,733
  1,792
  1,856
  1,925
  1,999
  2,078
  2,162
  2,252
  2,347
  2,449
  2,556
  2,670
  2,790
  2,917
  3,051
  3,192
  3,341
  3,498
  3,664
  3,838
  4,022
  4,215
  4,419
  4,633
  4,858
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,481
  1,511
  1,545
  1,585
  1,630
  1,679
  1,733
  1,792
  1,856
  1,925
  1,999
  2,078
  2,162
  2,252
  2,347
  2,449
  2,556
  2,670
  2,790
  2,917
  3,051
  3,192
  3,341
  3,498
  3,664
  3,838
  4,022
  4,215
  4,419
  4,633
  4,858
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.495
  1.494
  1.495
  1.495
  1.494
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
  1.495
Average production assets, $m
  302
  307
  314
  322
  331
  341
  352
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  440
  458
  477
  498
  520
  543
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  745
  780
  818
  857
  898
  942
  988
Working capital, $m
  2,973
  224
  229
  235
  241
  249
  257
  265
  275
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  472
  495
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
  719
Total debt, $m
  1,579
  722
  754
  790
  830
  874
  923
  976
  1,034
  1,095
  1,162
  1,233
  1,309
  1,390
  1,476
  1,567
  1,663
  1,766
  1,874
  1,988
  2,109
  2,236
  2,370
  2,512
  2,661
  2,818
  2,983
  3,157
  3,340
  3,533
  3,735
Total liabilities, $m
  2,216
  1,359
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,511
  1,560
  1,613
  1,671
  1,732
  1,799
  1,870
  1,946
  2,027
  2,113
  2,204
  2,300
  2,403
  2,511
  2,625
  2,746
  2,873
  3,007
  3,149
  3,298
  3,455
  3,620
  3,794
  3,977
  4,170
  4,372
Total equity, $m
  2,603
  151
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  179
  186
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  422
  442
  463
  486
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,819
  1,510
  1,546
  1,586
  1,630
  1,679
  1,733
  1,792
  1,857
  1,924
  1,999
  2,078
  2,162
  2,252
  2,348
  2,449
  2,556
  2,670
  2,790
  2,917
  3,051
  3,192
  3,341
  3,499
  3,664
  3,839
  4,022
  4,216
  4,419
  4,633
  4,858
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.607
  4.780
  4.880
  4.980
  5.090
  5.210
  5.320
  5.450
  5.570
  5.690
  5.810
  5.930
  6.050
  6.170
  6.290
  6.400
  6.510
  6.610
  6.720
  6.820
  6.910
  7.000
  7.090
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.496
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  551
  463
  481
  494
  509
  526
  546
  569
  593
  621
  650
  694
  729
  767
  808
  851
  898
  947
  1,000
  1,057
  1,117
  1,180
  1,248
  1,320
  1,396
  1,476
  1,561
  1,652
  1,747
  1,848
  1,954
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
Funds from operations, $m
  687
  525
  544
  558
  574
  593
  615
  639
  666
  695
  727
  757
  795
  835
  879
  925
  975
  1,028
  1,085
  1,145
  1,209
  1,277
  1,349
  1,426
  1,507
  1,593
  1,683
  1,780
  1,881
  1,988
  2,102
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  730
  509
  539
  552
  568
  586
  607
  630
  656
  685
  716
  746
  782
  822
  865
  910
  959
  1,011
  1,067
  1,126
  1,189
  1,256
  1,327
  1,403
  1,482
  1,567
  1,656
  1,751
  1,851
  1,957
  2,068
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -424
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
Free cash flow, $m
  306
  459
  486
  497
  510
  526
  545
  566
  589
  614
  643
  669
  702
  738
  777
  819
  863
  911
  962
  1,016
  1,074
  1,135
  1,200
  1,269
  1,342
  1,420
  1,502
  1,590
  1,682
  1,779
  1,882
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -272
  31
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -376
  -272
  31
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -70
  187
  517
  533
  551
  571
  594
  619
  646
  676
  709
  740
  778
  819
  863
  910
  960
  1,013
  1,070
  1,130
  1,194
  1,262
  1,334
  1,411
  1,492
  1,577
  1,668
  1,764
  1,865
  1,972
  2,085
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -301
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2,753
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,639
  514
  529
  546
  566
  588
  613
  640
  669
  702
  732
  770
  810
  853
  900
  949
  1,002
  1,058
  1,117
  1,181
  1,248
  1,319
  1,395
  1,475
  1,560
  1,649
  1,744
  1,844
  1,950
  2,062
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2,530
  470
  460
  450
  439
  427
  414
  400
  385
  368
  348
  328
  308
  286
  264
  241
  218
  195
  172
  150
  129
  109
  91
  75
  61
  48
  37
  29
  21
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Xilinx, Inc. designs and develops programmable devices and associated technologies worldwide. Its programmable devices comprise integrated circuits (ICs) in the form of programmable logic devices (PLDs), such as programmable system on chips, and three dimensional ICs; software design tools to program the PLDs; targeted reference designs; printed circuit boards; and intellectual property (IP). The company also offers development boards; development kits, including hardware, design tools, IP, and reference designs that are designed to streamline and accelerate the development of domain-specific and market-specific applications; and configuration products, such as one-time programmable and in-system programmable storage devices to configure field programmable gate arrays. In addition, it provides design services, customer training, field engineering, and technical support. The company offers its products to electronic equipment manufacturers in end markets, such as wired and wireless communications, industrial, scientific and medical, aerospace and defense, audio, video and broadcast, consumer, automotive, and test and measurement. Xilinx, Inc. sells its products through a network of independent distributors; and through direct sales to original equipment manufacturers and electronic manufacturing service providers by a network of independent sales representative firms and by a direct sales management organization. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xilinx (XLNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.1
Price to Sales 7.2
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 23
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 38.2%
Total Debt to Equity 60.7%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Return On Equity 21%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.5%
EBITDA Margin 33.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Operating Margin 30.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Net Profit Margin 24.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Effective Tax Rate 13.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Payout Ratio 57.9%

XLNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XLNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2214 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xilinx. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Xilinx. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XLNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XLNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xilinx, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xilinx.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XLNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $497 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XLNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Xilinx.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xilinx. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XLNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XLNX are equal to 13.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xilinx operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XLNX is equal to 9.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2603 million for Xilinx - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 249.008 million for Xilinx is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xilinx at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Xilinx Remains Undervalued At Current Levels   [Dec-30-16 11:32AM  Benzinga]
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Stock chart of XLNX Financial statements of XLNX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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