Intrinsic value of Acceleron Pharma - XLRN

Previous Close

$33.13

  Intrinsic Value

$1.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-60%

Previous close

$33.13

 
Intrinsic value

$1.49

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-60%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XLRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  55.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  94
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  132
  137
  142
  146
  151
  157
  162
  168
  174
  180
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  231
  239
  249
Operating income, $m
  -66
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -130
  -135
  -139
  -143
  -148
  -152
  -157
EBITDA, $m
  -64
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -156
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -57
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -57
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  248
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.259
  0.264
  0.257
  0.259
  0.261
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.259
  0.255
  0.260
  0.257
  0.259
  0.262
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.256
  0.260
  0.258
  0.260
  0.258
  0.258
  0.259
  0.258
  0.261
  0.259
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.259
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Working capital, $m
  131
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Total equity, $m
  226
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  248
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  187
  195
  204
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -57
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -46
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -157
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -45
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -102
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -143
  -147
  -152
  -157
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  -154
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -149
  -154
  -159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  147
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  147
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  143
  149
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -117
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -161
  -166
  -172
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -156
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  69
  -64
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -51
  -48
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.2
  76.0
  66.1
  57.5
  50.1
  43.6
  37.9
  33.0
  28.8
  25.1
  21.9
  19.1
  16.8
  14.7
  12.9
  11.3
  10.0
  8.8
  7.7
  6.8
  6.1
  5.4
  4.8
  4.2
  3.8
  3.4
  3.0
  2.7
  2.4
  2.2

Acceleron Pharma Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of protein therapeutics for cancer and rare diseases. It is developing sotatercept to treat patients with chronic kidney disease, including mineral-bone disorder, vascular calcification, and anemia; and luspatercept to treat anemia and associated complications in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and beta-thalassemia. The company is also developing dalantercept therapeutic candidate to treat renal cell carcinoma; and ACE-083 to promote muscle growth and function in specific treated muscles. It has collaboration, license, and option agreement with Celgene Corporation. The company was formerly known as Phoenix Pharma, Inc. Acceleron Pharma Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acceleron Pharma (XLRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22.2
Price to Sales 45.3
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -28.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -26.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 55.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -28.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Return On Total Capital -34%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.2%
Return On Equity -34%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -196.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -288.8%
Operating Margin -235.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -313.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -203.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -299.7%
Net Profit Margin -203.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -299.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

XLRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XLRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acceleron Pharma. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Acceleron Pharma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XLRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XLRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acceleron Pharma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acceleron Pharma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XLRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 150%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XLRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Acceleron Pharma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acceleron Pharma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XLRN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XLRN are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acceleron Pharma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XLRN is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $226 million for Acceleron Pharma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.992 million for Acceleron Pharma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acceleron Pharma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Luspatercept: Opportunity for Celgenes Long-Term Growth?   [Aug-11-17 09:06AM  Market Realist]
▶ Can This Small Biotech Be Saved By Developing Anemia Drug?   [Jun-13-17 04:18PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Acceleron investors react to trial flop with a shrug, then cheers   [11:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Biotech Movers: Acceleron, Clovis, Coherus   [09:28AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How Celgene Toppled On A Small-Cap Biotech's Ragged Quarter   [04:14PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Acceleron reports 1Q loss   [07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Acceleron Announces Management Change   [May-02-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Clinical Development News, March 13-17   [Mar-17-17 07:26PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Acceleron Pharma Price Target Raised by Leerink   [Mar-02-17 08:36AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Acceleron reports 4Q loss   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Insider Buys Highlight for Week of Jan. 6   [Jan-07-17 12:12PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Acceleron Outlines Corporate Goals and Priorities for 2017   [Jan-06-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Acceleron Pharma Inc (XLRN)   [05:14AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ John Knopf to retire as CEO of Acceleron Pharma   [Sep-28-16 07:25AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Acceleron Pharma tabs Bayer exec as next CEO   [Sep-27-16 04:13PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ 5 Reasons Celgene Is a Buy   [Sep-15-16 10:44AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of XLRN Financial statements of XLRN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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