Intrinsic value of Xunlei ADR - XNET

Previous Close

$4.79

  Intrinsic Value

$3.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

  Value-price divergence*

-61%

Previous close

$4.79

 
Intrinsic value

$3.01

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-61%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XNET stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.00
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  253
  269
  286
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  403
  426
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  584
  615
  647
  681
  717
  754
  793
  834
  877
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  292
  310
  329
  347
  367
  388
  411
  434
  458
  484
  510
  538
  567
  597
  629
  662
  697
  733
  772
  812
  854
  898
  944
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  190
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  292
  310
  329
  347
  367
  388
  411
  434
  458
  484
  510
  538
  567
  597
  629
  662
  697
  733
  772
  812
  854
  898
  944
Operating income, $m
  -33
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
EBITDA, $m
  -25
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  510
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  197
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
  333
  352
  372
  392
  413
  436
  459
  483
  509
  536
  564
  593
  624
  656
  690
  725
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  197
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
  333
  352
  372
  392
  413
  436
  459
  483
  509
  536
  564
  593
  624
  656
  690
  725
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.209
  1.209
  1.207
  1.205
  1.209
  1.212
  1.208
  1.211
  1.206
  1.207
  1.211
  1.211
  1.209
  1.211
  1.206
  1.210
  1.210
  1.207
  1.209
  1.211
  1.209
  1.209
  1.209
  1.208
  1.207
  1.207
  1.209
  1.208
  1.209
  1.209
  1.210
Average production assets, $m
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
Working capital, $m
  319
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -348
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  17
  25
  34
  44
  53
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  121
  134
  148
  162
  176
  192
  208
  225
  242
  261
  280
  300
  322
  344
  367
  391
  417
  444
  472
Total liabilities, $m
  102
  110
  119
  127
  136
  146
  155
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  493
  519
  546
  574
Total equity, $m
  408
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  510
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  196
  210
  223
  236
  251
  267
  282
  298
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  459
  483
  508
  536
  564
  593
  623
  656
  690
  726
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.280
  0.530
  0.750
  0.950
  1.130
  1.300
  1.450
  1.590
  1.720
  1.840
  1.950
  2.050
  2.150
  2.240
  2.320
  2.400
  2.470
  2.540
  2.600
  2.660
  2.720
  2.770
  2.830
  2.870
  2.920
  2.960
  3.000
  3.040
  3.080
  3.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -158
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  -141
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  25
  26
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -162
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  39
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  379
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  363
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  54.9
  30.1
  16.5
  9.0
  5.0
  2.7
  1.5
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Xunlei Limited (Xunlei) is a cloud-based acceleration technology company. The Company operates an Internet platform in China based on cloud computing to enable users to access, manage and consume digital media content. The Company's segment is the operation of its online media platform. The Company's products and services include Xunlei Accelerator, which enables users to accelerate digital transmission over the Internet, and cloud acceleration subscription services, which offer user services for speed and reliability. The Company's Xunlei Accelerator allows users to accelerate digital transmission over the Internet. Xunlei Accelerator also bridges users with diverse needs to other services it offers, such as Xunlei Media Player, which supports both online and offline video watching, and its various online games, including Web games and massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs), by recommending and providing links to these services on its user interface.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xunlei ADR (XNET)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -66
Price to Sales 10.1
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 93.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 527.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Return On Equity -5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.6%
EBITDA Margin -10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin -21.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -15.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

XNET stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XNET stock intrinsic value calculation we used $156 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xunlei ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Xunlei ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XNET stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XNET is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xunlei ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xunlei ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XNET stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 109%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XNET stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Xunlei ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xunlei ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XNET stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XNET are equal to 20.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xunlei ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XNET is equal to -39.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $408 million for Xunlei ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.523 million for Xunlei ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xunlei ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Xunlei Limited Stock Jumps Nearly 20%   [Oct-17-17 04:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Autohome Inc. Announces Management Change   [Sep-28-17 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Weibo Corp (ADR) Stock is Red Hot, But Is It a Buy?   [Sep-22-17 06:56AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Xunlei Announces Appointment of Chief Financial Officer   [Sep-14-17 06:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xunlei Announces Change of Management   [Jun-29-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-20-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Xunlei Ltd (XNET) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 12:43PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Xunlei Ltd (XNET) A Good Stock To Buy?   [12:43PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Xunlei Announces Changes in Board of Directors   [Nov-24-16 11:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ XUNLEI LTD Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-21-16 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Carmike Cinemas, Inc. (CKEC)   [Nov-27  06:20AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Are Hedge Funds Underweight Xencor Inc (XNCR)?   [Nov-21  01:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Xiaomi Boosts Xunlei Ties, Buyout Offer Coming?   [Jun-29  09:30AM  at Forbes]
▶ 4 High-Volatility Stocks to Watch for Breakouts   [Jun-05  12:18PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-20  06:42PM  at noodls]
▶ Teva, Microsoft, Nestle, Uber: Intellectual Property   [Jan-21  12:01AM  at Bloomberg]
Financial statements of XNET
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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