Intrinsic value of Xunlei ADR - XNET

Previous Close

$4.60

  Intrinsic Value

$2.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

  Value-price divergence*

+33%

Previous close

$4.60

 
Intrinsic value

$2.98

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+33%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XNET stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.00
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
  516
  541
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  174
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  238
  245
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  190
  174
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  238
  245
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
Operating income, $m
  -33
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
EBITDA, $m
  -25
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  510
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.209
  1.212
  1.213
  1.214
  1.207
  1.207
  1.213
  1.211
  1.210
  1.207
  1.210
  1.213
  1.209
  1.210
  1.210
  1.211
  1.210
  1.209
  1.212
  1.210
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.212
  1.208
  1.210
  1.208
  1.209
  1.209
  1.208
  1.210
Average production assets, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
Working capital, $m
  319
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  252
Total liabilities, $m
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
Total equity, $m
  408
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  510
  133
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
  336
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
  448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.200
  0.310
  0.420
  0.530
  0.640
  0.750
  0.870
  0.980
  1.090
  1.190
  1.300
  1.400
  1.500
  1.600
  1.690
  1.790
  1.870
  1.960
  2.040
  2.120
  2.190
  2.270
  2.340
  2.400
  2.470
  2.530
  2.580
  2.640
  2.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -158
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -141
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  18
  19
  19
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  26
  27
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -162
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  39
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  381
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  371
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  356
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  57.2
  32.6
  18.5
  10.5
  5.9
  3.3
  1.9
  1.0
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Xunlei Limited, a cloud-based acceleration technology company, operates an Internet platform for digital media content in the People's Republic of China. The company’s platform is based on cloud computing that enables users to access, manage, and consume digital media content. Its products include Xunlei Accelerator, which enables users to accelerate digital transmission over the Internet; and cloud acceleration subscription services that offer users premium services for speed and reliability through products, such as Green Channel, Offline Accelerator, and Yunbo. The company also provides Xunlei Mobile, a mobile application that allows users to search, download, and consume content on their mobile devices; Xunlei Media Player that supports both online and offline play of digital media content, as well as simultaneous play of digital media content while it is being transmitted by Xunlei Accelerator; online game services, including Web games and MMOGs through its gaming platform; online advertising services; and other Internet value-added services. Its platform serves approximately 196 million monthly unique visitors. The company was formerly known as Giganology Limited and changed its name to Xunlei Limited in January 2011. Xunlei Limited was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xunlei ADR (XNET)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -63.4
Price to Sales 9.7
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 89.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 506.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Return On Equity -5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.6%
EBITDA Margin -10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin -21.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -15.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

XNET stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XNET stock intrinsic value calculation we used $156 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xunlei ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Xunlei ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XNET stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XNET is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xunlei ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xunlei ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XNET stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 109%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XNET stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Xunlei ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xunlei ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XNET stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XNET are equal to 20.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xunlei ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XNET is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $408 million for Xunlei ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.044 million for Xunlei ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xunlei ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Xunlei Announces Change of Management   [Jun-29-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-20-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Xunlei Ltd (XNET) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-19-16 12:43PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Xunlei Ltd (XNET) A Good Stock To Buy?   [12:43PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Xunlei Announces Changes in Board of Directors   [Nov-24-16 11:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ XUNLEI LTD Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-21-16 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Carmike Cinemas, Inc. (CKEC)   [Nov-27  06:20AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Are Hedge Funds Underweight Xencor Inc (XNCR)?   [Nov-21  01:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Xiaomi Boosts Xunlei Ties, Buyout Offer Coming?   [Jun-29  09:30AM  at Forbes]
▶ 4 High-Volatility Stocks to Watch for Breakouts   [Jun-05  12:18PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Xunlei Limited Files Its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-20  06:42PM  at noodls]
▶ Teva, Microsoft, Nestle, Uber: Intellectual Property   [Jan-21  12:01AM  at Bloomberg]
Stock chart of XNET Financial statements of XNET
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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