Intrinsic value of China Xiniya Fashion ADR - XNY

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$1.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XNY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  481
  493
  505
  519
  535
  552
  571
  592
  614
  637
  662
  689
  718
  748
  780
  815
  851
  889
  930
  972
  1,017
  1,065
  1,115
  1,168
  1,223
  1,282
  1,344
  1,408
  1,477
  1,548
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  273
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  396
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  873
  895
  918
  940
  964
  988
  1,013
  1,038
  1,064
  1,091
  1,118
  1,146
  1,174
  1,204
  1,234
  1,265
  1,296
  1,329
  1,362
  1,396
  1,431
  1,467
  1,503
  1,541
  1,580
  1,619
  1,660
  1,701
  1,744
  1,787
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  996
  1,021
  1,047
  1,073
  1,101
  1,129
  1,159
  1,189
  1,221
  1,254
  1,288
  1,322
  1,358
  1,396
  1,434
  1,474
  1,514
  1,557
  1,600
  1,645
  1,691
  1,740
  1,788
  1,840
  1,893
  1,947
  2,004
  2,062
  2,122
  2,183
Operating income, $m
  0
  -515
  -529
  -542
  -554
  -566
  -577
  -588
  -598
  -608
  -617
  -625
  -633
  -640
  -647
  -653
  -659
  -663
  -667
  -670
  -673
  -674
  -674
  -674
  -672
  -669
  -665
  -660
  -653
  -645
  -635
EBITDA, $m
  0
  -513
  -526
  -539
  -552
  -563
  -574
  -585
  -595
  -605
  -614
  -622
  -630
  -637
  -644
  -650
  -655
  -659
  -663
  -666
  -668
  -669
  -669
  -669
  -667
  -664
  -659
  -654
  -646
  -638
  -628
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -515
  -529
  -542
  -555
  -567
  -578
  -589
  -599
  -609
  -619
  -628
  -636
  -644
  -651
  -657
  -663
  -669
  -673
  -677
  -680
  -682
  -683
  -683
  -682
  -680
  -677
  -672
  -666
  -659
  -650
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -50
  -515
  -529
  -542
  -555
  -567
  -578
  -589
  -599
  -609
  -619
  -628
  -636
  -644
  -651
  -657
  -663
  -669
  -673
  -677
  -680
  -682
  -683
  -683
  -682
  -680
  -677
  -672
  -666
  -659
  -650

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  79
  746
  764
  783
  805
  830
  856
  886
  917
  951
  988
  1,027
  1,068
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,319
  1,378
  1,441
  1,507
  1,577
  1,651
  1,729
  1,811
  1,897
  1,987
  2,083
  2,183
  2,289
  2,400
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  79
  746
  764
  783
  805
  830
  856
  886
  917
  951
  988
  1,027
  1,068
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,319
  1,378
  1,441
  1,507
  1,577
  1,651
  1,729
  1,811
  1,897
  1,987
  2,083
  2,183
  2,289
  2,400
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.644
  0.646
  0.646
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
  0.645
Average production assets, $m
  2
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Working capital, $m
  -23
  241
  246
  253
  260
  268
  276
  286
  296
  307
  319
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  445
  465
  486
  509
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  9
  14
  20
  27
  34
  42
  51
  60
  71
  81
  93
  105
  118
  132
  147
  162
  179
  196
  215
  234
  254
  276
  299
  322
  348
  374
  402
  431
  462
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  237
  245
  254
  263
  274
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  502
  525
  551
  577
  605
  634
  665
Total equity, $m
  56
  540
  552
  566
  582
  600
  619
  640
  663
  688
  714
  742
  772
  805
  839
  875
  913
  954
  997
  1,042
  1,090
  1,140
  1,194
  1,250
  1,309
  1,371
  1,437
  1,506
  1,579
  1,655
  1,736
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  79
  747
  764
  783
  805
  830
  856
  885
  917
  951
  988
  1,026
  1,068
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,319
  1,379
  1,441
  1,508
  1,577
  1,651
  1,729
  1,811
  1,896
  1,988
  2,083
  2,184
  2,289
  2,401
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.709
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -50
  -515
  -529
  -542
  -555
  -567
  -578
  -589
  -599
  -609
  -619
  -628
  -636
  -644
  -651
  -657
  -663
  -669
  -673
  -677
  -680
  -682
  -683
  -683
  -682
  -680
  -677
  -672
  -666
  -659
  -650
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  -513
  -526
  -540
  -552
  -564
  -575
  -586
  -597
  -606
  -616
  -624
  -633
  -640
  -647
  -654
  -659
  -664
  -669
  -672
  -675
  -677
  -678
  -677
  -676
  -674
  -670
  -666
  -660
  -652
  -643
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -512
  -532
  -546
  -559
  -572
  -584
  -596
  -607
  -617
  -627
  -637
  -646
  -655
  -663
  -670
  -677
  -683
  -688
  -692
  -696
  -699
  -701
  -702
  -703
  -702
  -700
  -696
  -692
  -686
  -679
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  -24
  -514
  -535
  -549
  -562
  -575
  -587
  -599
  -610
  -621
  -631
  -641
  -650
  -659
  -667
  -674
  -681
  -687
  -693
  -698
  -702
  -705
  -707
  -709
  -709
  -709
  -707
  -704
  -700
  -694
  -688
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  318
  542
  557
  572
  586
  599
  612
  624
  636
  647
  658
  669
  678
  688
  697
  705
  712
  719
  726
  731
  736
  740
  743
  746
  747
  747
  747
  745
  742
  737
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  322
  547
  562
  578
  593
  606
  620
  633
  645
  657
  669
  681
  690
  701
  711
  720
  728
  735
  743
  749
  755
  760
  765
  769
  771
  772
  773
  773
  771
  768
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -24
  -511
  -530
  -543
  -556
  -568
  -580
  -591
  -601
  -611
  -621
  -630
  -638
  -646
  -654
  -660
  -666
  -672
  -676
  -680
  -683
  -686
  -687
  -687
  -687
  -685
  -682
  -678
  -672
  -665
  -657
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  50
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  203
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  53.8
  22.1
  9.0
  3.7
  1.5
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

China Xiniya Fashion Limited designs, manufactures, and sells men’s business casual and business formal apparel and accessories to retail customers in the People’s Republic of China. It offers business casual apparel, including jackets, pants, shirts, T-shirts, sweaters, and overcoats; business formal apparel, such as suits, business pants, and dress shirts; and accessories comprising ties, bags, belts, shoes, and other accessories. The company sells and markets its products under the Xiniya brand through a network of authorized retail outlets owned and managed by third parties located in 20 provinces, 4 autonomous regions, and 4 municipalities. As of December 31, 2015, it operated 503 authorized retail outlets, including 64 outlets owned and managed by its distributors; 2 flagship outlets owned and managed by its distributors; a retail Website operated and managed by a distributor; and 435 authorized retail outlets owned and managed by 360 authorized retailers supervised by its 21 distributors, as well as 1 flagship outlet owned and directly operated by the company. China Xiniya Fashion Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Xiniya Fashion ADR (XNY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.1
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -61.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -61.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.8%
Return On Total Capital -61.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -44%
Return On Equity -61.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -44%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

XNY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XNY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $472 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Xiniya Fashion ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China Xiniya Fashion ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XNY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XNY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Xiniya Fashion ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Xiniya Fashion ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XNY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $852 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XNY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for China Xiniya Fashion ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Xiniya Fashion ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XNY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XNY are equal to 2.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Xiniya Fashion ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XNY is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $732 million for China Xiniya Fashion ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.564 million for China Xiniya Fashion ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Xiniya Fashion ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CHINA XINIYA FASHION LTD Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Superior Uniform Group, Inc. Earnings Q2*, 2015   [Aug-14  10:30AM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 Stocks The Market Values At Less Than $0   [Jun-19  12:12PM  Benzinga]
▶ 3 Stocks Pushing The Consumer Goods Sector Lower   [Oct-20  04:32PM  at TheStreet]
▶ CHINA XINIYA FASHION LTD Financials   [Aug-06  01:06PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Beating The Chinese Musical Chairs Game   [Jun-30  05:35AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ China Xiniya Fashion Ltd. Stock Downgraded (XNY)   [May-30  11:07AM  at TheStreet]
▶ How To Invest In China: This Hedge Fund Will Show You The Way   [May-08  04:06PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ China Xiniya Fashion Ltd. Stock Upgraded (XNY)   [Apr-05  05:00AM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of XNY Financial statements of XNY Annual reports of XNY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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