Intrinsic value of Xtant Medical Holdings - XTNT

Previous Close

$0.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-56%

Previous close

$0.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-56%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XTNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  52.54
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  295
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  80
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  98
  102
  103
  106
  108
  112
  115
  119
  123
  126
  131
  132
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  221
  230
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  144
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  141
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.638
  0.639
  0.639
  0.636
  0.639
  0.638
  0.636
  0.637
  0.638
  0.639
  0.637
  0.636
  0.636
  0.637
  0.638
  0.639
  0.638
  0.638
  0.639
  0.637
  0.636
  0.638
  0.638
  0.640
  0.639
  0.637
  0.637
  0.637
  0.639
  0.639
  0.637
Average production assets, $m
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
Working capital, $m
  18
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total debt, $m
  131
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  396
Total liabilities, $m
  151
  129
  132
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
Total equity, $m
  -7
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  144
  143
  147
  151
  156
  160
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  401
  421
  441
  462
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -18.714
  7.610
  7.640
  7.680
  7.710
  7.750
  7.790
  7.830
  7.870
  7.910
  7.950
  7.990
  8.030
  8.070
  8.110
  8.140
  8.180
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
  8.310
  8.340
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.450
  8.480
  8.500
  8.520
  8.550
  8.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.050
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -20
  -12
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  -19
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  36
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  17
  17
  17
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  -36
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -30
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -26
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  25.2
  12.7
  6.4
  3.3
  1.7
  0.9
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc., formerly Bacterin International Holdings, Inc., develops, manufactures and markets regenerative medicine products and medical devices for domestic and international markets. The Company operates through the development, manufacture and marketing of regenerative medical products and devices segment. Its biomaterial products include OsteoSponge, OsteoSponge SC, OsteoSelect DBM putty, OsteoSelect Plus DBM putty, OsteoWrap, BacFast HD, OsteoSTX, hMatrix and 3Demin products, as well as other allografts. Its products serve the needs of orthopedic and neurological surgeons, including orthobiologics for the promotion of bone healing, implants and instrumentation for the treatment of spinal disease, tissue grafts for the treatment of orthopedic disorders, and biologics to promote healing following cranial, foot and ankle surgeries. It also processes and distributes sports allografts, milled spinal allografts and allografts for multi-disciplinary applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Xtant Medical Holdings (XTNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 52.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -92%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 43.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -1728.6%
Total Debt to Equity -1871.4%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.3%
Return On Total Capital -15.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.4%
Return On Equity -1900%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -705.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.9%
EBITDA Margin -7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Operating Margin -8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -21.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.8%
Net Profit Margin -21.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 0%

XTNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XTNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $90 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Xtant Medical Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Xtant Medical Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XTNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for XTNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Xtant Medical Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Xtant Medical Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XTNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XTNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Xtant Medical Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Xtant Medical Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XTNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XTNT are equal to 57.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Xtant Medical Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XTNT is equal to 27.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-7 million for Xtant Medical Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.099 million for Xtant Medical Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Xtant Medical Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SPNE SeaSpine Holdi 10.15 2.21  str.sell
NUVA NuVasive 54.57 53.09  hold
MDXG MiMedx Group 13.83 8.13  sell
RTIX RTI Surgical 4.75 1.09  str.sell
OFIX Orthofix Inter 48.88 46.31  hold
CERS Cerus 3.00 0.13  str.sell
WMGI Wright Medical 26.47 0.43  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Xtant Medical Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-09-17 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xtant Medical Announces Rescheduling of Annual Meeting   [May-26-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xtant Medical Sets Annual Meeting and Record Dates   [May-05-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Xtant Medical Receives Going Concern Opinion   [Apr-05-17 04:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ XTNT Announces Issuance of PIK Notes   [Jan-19-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ XTNT Announces Closing of Registered Direct Offering   [Jan-18-17 05:36PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ XTNT Announces Registered Direct Offering   [Jan-13-17 05:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of XTNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.