Intrinsic value of 22nd Century Group - XXII

Previous Close

$2.66

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$2.66

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of XXII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.33
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  41
  50
  61
  72
  84
  98
  112
  128
  144
  162
  180
  200
  220
  242
  264
  287
  312
  337
  363
  390
  419
  448
  479
  511
  544
  578
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  21
  28
  36
  45
  55
  67
  81
  96
  112
  130
  149
  170
  192
  216
  240
  266
  294
  322
  352
  383
  415
  449
  484
  520
  558
  597
  638
  681
  725
  770
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  24
  29
  36
  45
  54
  64
  76
  91
  106
  122
  140
  159
  181
  203
  227
  252
  278
  306
  334
  365
  396
  428
  463
  498
  534
  573
  612
  654
  697
  741
  787
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  28
  20
  26
  33
  42
  52
  63
  76
  90
  105
  122
  140
  159
  180
  202
  225
  250
  275
  302
  330
  359
  390
  421
  454
  488
  523
  560
  598
  638
  679
  723
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  20
  26
  33
  42
  52
  63
  76
  90
  105
  122
  140
  159
  180
  202
  225
  250
  275
  302
  330
  359
  390
  421
  454
  488
  523
  560
  598
  638
  679
  723
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.800
  0.800
  0.808
  0.818
  0.810
  0.788
  0.794
  0.803
  0.800
  0.800
  0.803
  0.800
  0.805
  0.800
  0.802
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.801
  0.800
  0.799
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.799
  0.801
  0.800
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.799
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  150
  165
  181
  198
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
Working capital, $m
  14
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  29
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  189
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  43
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  193
Total equity, $m
  24
  15
  19
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  66
  77
  89
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  202
  221
  242
  263
  286
  309
  333
  358
  384
  411
  439
  468
  498
  530
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  27
  20
  26
  33
  42
  52
  63
  75
  90
  105
  122
  140
  160
  180
  202
  225
  250
  276
  302
  330
  359
  390
  421
  454
  488
  524
  561
  599
  638
  679
  723
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.090
  0.160
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733
  0.733

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  18
  22
  25
  28
  33
  38
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  82
  89
  96
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  232
  245
  258
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -221
  -234
  -247
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.5
  76.2
  68.0
  61.4
  55.9
  51.2
  47.2
  43.7
  40.6
  37.8
  35.4
  33.2
  31.1
  29.3
  27.6
  26.1
  24.6
  23.3
  22.1
  20.9
  19.8
  18.8
  17.9
  17.0
  16.2
  15.4
  14.6
  13.9
  13.3
  12.7

22nd Century Group, Inc. is a plant biotechnology company. The Company is focused on technology that allows increasing or decreasing the level of nicotine and other nicotinic alkaloids in tobacco plants, and levels of cannabinoids in cannabis plants through genetic engineering and plant breeding. It is engaged in various activities, including research and development of less harmful or modified risk tobacco products and tobacco plant varieties; development of X-22, a smoking cessation aid consisting of very low nicotine (VLN) cigarettes; manufacture, marketing and distribution of its RED SUN and MAGIC cigarettes; production of SPECTRUM research cigarettes for the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA); contract manufacturing of third-party branded tobacco products, and research and development of plant varieties of hemp/cannabis, such as plants with low to no amounts of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), plants with high levels of cannabidiol (CBD), and other non-THC cannabinoids.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  22nd Century Group (XXII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.1
Price to Sales 20.1
Price to Book 10.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -24.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -52.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.1%
Return On Total Capital -64.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -91.4%
Return On Equity -66.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -95.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
EBITDA Margin -91.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -604.6%
Operating Margin -100%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -607.4%
Net Profit Margin -100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -607.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

XXII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the XXII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 22nd Century Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of 22nd Century Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our XXII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for XXII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 22nd Century Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 22nd Century Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of XXII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 133.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for XXII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 22nd Century Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 22nd Century Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the XXII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for XXII are equal to 75%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 22nd Century Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for XXII is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24 million for 22nd Century Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 102.762 million for 22nd Century Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 22nd Century Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why 22nd Century Group Stock Briefly Spiked Monday   [Oct-17-17 08:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Oct 9, 2017   [09:27AM  Zacks]
▶ Why 22nd Century Group, Inc. Are Climbing Higher Today   [Oct-06-17 04:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pot Stock Winners of the Week   [04:39PM  Investopedia]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for October 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:01AM  Investopedia]
▶ 22nd Century to Speak at Global Tobacco & Nicotine Forum   [Sep-13-17 09:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ 22nd Century Technology is a Game Changer   [09:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 3rd   [Jul-03-17 11:30AM  Zacks]
▶ 22nd Century Joins Russell Microcap® Index   [Jun-26-17 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ 22nd Century Produces Non-GMO Very Low Nicotine Tobacco   [Jun-06-17 01:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ 22nd Century reports 1Q loss   [05:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Collect Smokin' Hot Profits From This Marijuana Biotech   [Mar-30-17 04:13PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 22nd Century Group Issues Annual Letter to Shareholders   [Mar-21-17 09:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ 22nd Century reports 4Q loss   [Mar-08-17 06:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Crede Dismisses Claims in Lawsuit Against 22nd Century   [Feb-22-17 09:46AM  Business Wire]
▶ 22nd Century Prevails Again in Frivolous Crede Lawsuit   [Feb-03-17 09:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
Financial statements of XXII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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