Intrinsic value of ZAGG - ZAGG

Previous Close

$20.15

  Intrinsic Value

$24.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+22%

Previous close

$20.15

 
Intrinsic value

$24.53

 
Up/down potential

+22%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZAGG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.44
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
Revenue, $m
  402
  462
  527
  596
  669
  747
  828
  914
  1,003
  1,096
  1,194
  1,295
  1,400
  1,510
  1,624
  1,742
  1,865
  1,993
  2,126
  2,264
  2,407
  2,557
  2,713
  2,875
  3,045
  3,221
  3,405
  3,598
  3,798
  4,008
  4,227
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  417
  476
  538
  604
  673
  747
  823
  904
  988
  1,075
  1,165
  1,260
  1,359
  1,461
  1,568
  1,678
  1,793
  1,913
  2,037
  2,167
  2,301
  2,442
  2,588
  2,740
  2,899
  3,065
  3,238
  3,419
  3,607
  3,805
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  423
  417
  476
  538
  604
  673
  747
  823
  904
  988
  1,075
  1,165
  1,260
  1,359
  1,461
  1,568
  1,678
  1,793
  1,913
  2,037
  2,167
  2,301
  2,442
  2,588
  2,740
  2,899
  3,065
  3,238
  3,419
  3,607
  3,805
Operating income, $m
  -21
  45
  51
  58
  66
  73
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
  271
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  401
  423
EBITDA, $m
  1
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  137
  150
  162
  176
  189
  204
  218
  234
  250
  267
  284
  302
  321
  340
  361
  382
  404
  427
  451
  476
  503
  530
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
Earnings before tax, $m
  -24
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
  264
  278
  292
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Net income, $m
  -16
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  53
  57
  61
  66
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  311
  344
  392
  443
  498
  556
  616
  680
  746
  816
  888
  963
  1,042
  1,123
  1,208
  1,296
  1,388
  1,483
  1,582
  1,684
  1,791
  1,903
  2,019
  2,139
  2,265
  2,397
  2,534
  2,677
  2,826
  2,982
  3,145
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  299
  344
  392
  443
  498
  556
  616
  680
  746
  816
  888
  963
  1,042
  1,123
  1,208
  1,296
  1,388
  1,483
  1,582
  1,684
  1,791
  1,903
  2,019
  2,139
  2,265
  2,397
  2,534
  2,677
  2,826
  2,982
  3,145
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.343
  1.344
  1.345
  1.343
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.345
  1.343
  1.345
  1.345
  1.344
  1.345
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
  1.344
Average production assets, $m
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  164
  178
  192
  206
  221
  237
  253
  270
  287
  306
  325
  345
  365
  387
  409
  432
  457
  482
  509
  537
Working capital, $m
  -10
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  188
  199
Total debt, $m
  51
  66
  96
  127
  160
  195
  232
  271
  311
  354
  398
  444
  491
  541
  593
  646
  702
  760
  820
  883
  948
  1,016
  1,086
  1,160
  1,237
  1,317
  1,400
  1,487
  1,578
  1,673
  1,773
Total liabilities, $m
  193
  209
  239
  270
  303
  338
  375
  414
  454
  497
  541
  587
  634
  684
  736
  789
  845
  903
  963
  1,026
  1,091
  1,159
  1,229
  1,303
  1,380
  1,460
  1,543
  1,630
  1,721
  1,816
  1,916
Total equity, $m
  117
  134
  153
  173
  195
  217
  241
  266
  292
  319
  347
  377
  407
  439
  472
  507
  543
  580
  618
  659
  700
  744
  789
  836
  886
  937
  991
  1,047
  1,105
  1,166
  1,230
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  310
  343
  392
  443
  498
  555
  616
  680
  746
  816
  888
  964
  1,041
  1,123
  1,208
  1,296
  1,388
  1,483
  1,581
  1,685
  1,791
  1,903
  2,018
  2,139
  2,266
  2,397
  2,534
  2,677
  2,826
  2,982
  3,146
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.436
  0.490
  0.620
  0.730
  0.820
  0.900
  0.960
  1.020
  1.070
  1.110
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.280
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  53
  57
  61
  66
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  44
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  98
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  321
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  33
  41
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  115
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  226
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  310
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  137
  144
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
  218
  230
  241
  254
  267
  280
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  36
  35
  33
  32
  30
  28
  26
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ZAGG Inc (ZAGG) designs, produces and distributes professional product solutions for mobile devices, including screen protection (glass and film), keyboards for tablet computers and mobile devices, keyboard cases, earbuds, mobile power solutions, cables, and cases under the ZAGG and InvisibleShield brands. In addition, the Company designs, produces and distributes earbuds, headphones, mobile power solutions, Bluetooth speakers, cases and cables for mobile devices under the iFrogz brand in the fashion and youth oriented lifestyle sector. The Company designs product solutions for users of mobile devices, and sells these products to consumers through global distribution partners and online. The Company offers products for various market segments of handheld electronic devices, including smartphones, tablets, notebook computers, laptops, gaming devices, global positioning system (GPS) devices, watch faces, and similar devices and surfaces.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ZAGG (ZAGG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.3
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 49.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1560%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 94.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 8.5%
Total Debt to Equity 43.6%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital -10.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity -12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin -4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZAGG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZAGG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $402 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ZAGG. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ZAGG. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZAGG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZAGG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ZAGG, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ZAGG.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZAGG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZAGG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for ZAGG.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ZAGG. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZAGG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZAGG are equal to 12.7%.

Life of production assets of 2.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ZAGG operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZAGG is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $117 million for ZAGG - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.964 million for ZAGG is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ZAGG at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Financial statements of ZAGG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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