Intrinsic value of Zogenix - ZGNX

Previous Close

$11.45

  Intrinsic Value

$1.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

+3503%

Previous close

$11.45

 
Intrinsic value

$1.19

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+3503%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZGNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.41
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  83
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  102
  83
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
Operating income, $m
  -73
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
EBITDA, $m
  -72
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -70
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -70
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  232
  143
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  140
  143
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.207
  0.210
  0.205
  0.207
  0.208
  0.208
  0.207
  0.206
  0.205
  0.209
  0.206
  0.208
  0.205
  0.207
  0.207
  0.207
  0.207
  0.206
  0.208
  0.207
  0.208
  0.209
  0.206
  0.208
  0.207
  0.207
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.207
Average production assets, $m
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Working capital, $m
  100
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total debt, $m
  22
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  106
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  249
  265
Total liabilities, $m
  111
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Total equity, $m
  121
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  232
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  164
  170
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  241
  253
  263
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  398
  418
  438
  459
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.182
  0.650
  0.710
  0.770
  0.850
  0.920
  1.000
  1.070
  1.150
  1.230
  1.310
  1.390
  1.470
  1.540
  1.620
  1.690
  1.760
  1.830
  1.890
  1.960
  2.020
  2.080
  2.140
  2.190
  2.250
  2.300
  2.350
  2.390
  2.440
  2.480
  2.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -70
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  -90
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -73
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  10
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
Free cash flow, $m
  -63
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  57
  59
  61
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -64
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  62
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  36
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  34
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -26
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  57.3
  32.8
  18.8
  10.7
  6.1
  3.5
  2.0
  1.1
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Zogenix, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for the treatment of central nervous system disorders in the United States. The company’s lead product candidate is the ZX008, a low-dose fenfluramine for the treatment of seizures associated with Dravet syndrome. It also develops Relday, an injectable formulation of risperidone that is in Phase III clinical trial to treat the symptoms of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in adults and teenagers with 13 years of age and older. In addition, Zogenix, Inc. provides contract manufacturing services. The company was formerly known as SJ2 Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Zogenix, Inc. in August 2006. Zogenix, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zogenix (ZGNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.1
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 15.7%
Total Debt to Equity 18.2%
Interest Coverage -69
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -25.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Total Capital -40.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Return On Equity -46.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
EBITDA Margin -234.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.6%
Operating Margin -251.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -241.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.8%
Net Profit Margin -241.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Effective Tax Rate 1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZGNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZGNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $29 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zogenix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Zogenix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZGNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZGNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zogenix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zogenix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZGNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 279.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZGNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Zogenix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zogenix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZGNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZGNX are equal to 372.4%.

Life of production assets of 114 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zogenix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZGNX is equal to 37.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $121 million for Zogenix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.207 million for Zogenix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zogenix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Zogenix reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 03:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks With Big News Coming   [08:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Hot Healthcare Stocks Under $30   [Jul-31-17 10:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zogenix, Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 02:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zogenix, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Zogenix reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 06:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zogenix, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zogenix, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Zogenix reports 4Q loss   [Mar-09-17 05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Zogenix Announces CFO Transition   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Zogenix Stock Still a Buy After Soaring in November?   [Dec-08-16 10:19AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Zogenix to Participate in Stifel 2016 Healthcare Conference   [Nov-08-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Zogenix to Participate in Two Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Sep-20-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of ZGNX Financial statements of ZGNX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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