Intrinsic value of ZELTIQ Aesthetics - ZLTQ

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$56.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$56.48

 
Intrinsic value

$36.27

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZLTQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  38.82
  34.60
  31.64
  28.98
  26.58
  24.42
  22.48
  20.73
  19.16
  17.74
  16.47
  15.32
  14.29
  13.36
  12.52
  11.77
  11.09
  10.48
  9.94
  9.44
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
Revenue, $m
  354
  476
  627
  809
  1,024
  1,274
  1,560
  1,884
  2,245
  2,643
  3,078
  3,550
  4,057
  4,599
  5,175
  5,785
  6,426
  7,100
  7,806
  8,543
  9,312
  10,112
  10,945
  11,812
  12,712
  13,648
  14,620
  15,631
  16,682
  17,774
  18,911
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  428
  563
  726
  920
  1,144
  1,401
  1,692
  2,016
  2,374
  2,764
  3,188
  3,644
  4,130
  4,648
  5,195
  5,771
  6,376
  7,010
  7,671
  8,362
  9,081
  9,829
  10,607
  11,416
  12,256
  13,129
  14,037
  14,980
  15,961
  16,982
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
Total operating expenses, $m
  341
  453
  588
  752
  946
  1,171
  1,429
  1,721
  2,045
  2,404
  2,795
  3,219
  3,676
  4,163
  4,682
  5,230
  5,807
  6,413
  7,047
  7,709
  8,401
  9,121
  9,870
  10,649
  11,459
  12,300
  13,175
  14,084
  15,028
  16,010
  17,032
Operating income, $m
  13
  24
  39
  57
  78
  103
  131
  164
  200
  240
  283
  331
  382
  436
  494
  555
  620
  688
  759
  833
  910
  991
  1,075
  1,162
  1,253
  1,348
  1,446
  1,548
  1,654
  1,764
  1,879
EBITDA, $m
  17
  28
  44
  63
  86
  113
  144
  179
  218
  261
  308
  359
  414
  473
  535
  602
  671
  745
  821
  901
  985
  1,072
  1,163
  1,257
  1,355
  1,457
  1,563
  1,673
  1,787
  1,906
  2,030
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  24
  38
  55
  75
  98
  124
  155
  188
  225
  266
  310
  358
  408
  462
  519
  579
  642
  708
  777
  849
  924
  1,002
  1,083
  1,167
  1,255
  1,346
  1,440
  1,539
  1,641
  1,748
Tax expense, $m
  14
  6
  10
  15
  20
  26
  34
  42
  51
  61
  72
  84
  97
  110
  125
  140
  156
  173
  191
  210
  229
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  363
  389
  415
  443
  472
Net income, $m
  1
  18
  28
  40
  54
  71
  91
  113
  137
  165
  194
  226
  261
  298
  337
  379
  423
  469
  517
  567
  620
  674
  731
  791
  852
  916
  982
  1,052
  1,123
  1,198
  1,276

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  214
  213
  280
  361
  457
  569
  696
  841
  1,002
  1,179
  1,374
  1,584
  1,811
  2,052
  2,309
  2,581
  2,868
  3,168
  3,483
  3,812
  4,155
  4,512
  4,884
  5,271
  5,673
  6,090
  6,524
  6,975
  7,444
  7,931
  8,438
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  213
  280
  361
  457
  569
  696
  841
  1,002
  1,179
  1,374
  1,584
  1,811
  2,052
  2,309
  2,581
  2,868
  3,168
  3,483
  3,812
  4,155
  4,512
  4,884
  5,271
  5,673
  6,090
  6,524
  6,975
  7,444
  7,931
  8,438
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.241
  2.235
  2.239
  2.241
  2.241
  2.239
  2.241
  2.240
  2.241
  2.242
  2.240
  2.241
  2.240
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
  2.241
Average production assets, $m
  14
  19
  25
  32
  41
  51
  62
  75
  90
  106
  123
  142
  162
  184
  207
  231
  257
  284
  312
  342
  372
  404
  438
  472
  508
  546
  585
  625
  667
  711
  756
Working capital, $m
  92
  49
  64
  83
  104
  130
  159
  192
  229
  270
  314
  362
  414
  469
  528
  590
  655
  724
  796
  871
  950
  1,031
  1,116
  1,205
  1,297
  1,392
  1,491
  1,594
  1,702
  1,813
  1,929
Total debt, $m
  0
  26
  59
  98
  144
  197
  259
  328
  406
  491
  585
  686
  795
  911
  1,035
  1,166
  1,303
  1,448
  1,599
  1,758
  1,923
  2,094
  2,273
  2,459
  2,652
  2,853
  3,062
  3,279
  3,504
  3,739
  3,983
Total liabilities, $m
  77
  102
  135
  174
  220
  273
  335
  404
  482
  567
  661
  762
  871
  987
  1,111
  1,242
  1,379
  1,524
  1,675
  1,834
  1,999
  2,170
  2,349
  2,535
  2,728
  2,929
  3,138
  3,355
  3,580
  3,815
  4,059
Total equity, $m
  138
  110
  145
  187
  237
  295
  361
  436
  520
  612
  713
  822
  940
  1,065
  1,199
  1,340
  1,488
  1,644
  1,808
  1,978
  2,156
  2,342
  2,535
  2,736
  2,944
  3,161
  3,386
  3,620
  3,863
  4,116
  4,380
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  215
  212
  280
  361
  457
  568
  696
  840
  1,002
  1,179
  1,374
  1,584
  1,811
  2,052
  2,310
  2,582
  2,867
  3,168
  3,483
  3,812
  4,155
  4,512
  4,884
  5,271
  5,672
  6,090
  6,524
  6,975
  7,443
  7,931
  8,439
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.240
  0.400
  0.520
  0.610
  0.670
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  18
  28
  40
  54
  71
  91
  113
  137
  165
  194
  226
  261
  298
  337
  379
  423
  469
  517
  567
  620
  674
  731
  791
  852
  916
  982
  1,052
  1,123
  1,198
  1,276
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  94
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  21
  33
  46
  63
  82
  103
  128
  155
  186
  219
  255
  293
  335
  379
  425
  474
  526
  579
  636
  694
  755
  819
  885
  954
  1,025
  1,099
  1,177
  1,257
  1,340
  1,427
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  11
  17
  28
  41
  56
  74
  95
  119
  145
  174
  207
  242
  280
  320
  363
  409
  457
  507
  560
  616
  674
  734
  797
  862
  930
  1,000
  1,073
  1,150
  1,229
  1,311
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  5
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -44
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -187
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  3
  7
  16
  26
  38
  52
  69
  89
  111
  136
  163
  193
  225
  260
  297
  337
  378
  422
  468
  517
  567
  620
  674
  731
  791
  852
  916
  983
  1,052
  1,124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  116
  124
  131
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  61
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  116
  124
  131
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  29
  40
  55
  72
  92
  114
  139
  167
  197
  229
  264
  302
  342
  384
  428
  474
  523
  574
  627
  682
  739
  798
  860
  925
  991
  1,061
  1,133
  1,208
  1,286
  1,367
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -75
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  57
  5
  12
  22
  34
  48
  64
  83
  104
  129
  155
  184
  216
  250
  287
  326
  367
  410
  456
  504
  554
  606
  660
  716
  775
  836
  899
  965
  1,033
  1,104
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  4
  11
  18
  26
  35
  43
  52
  60
  67
  74
  79
  82
  84
  84
  83
  80
  76
  70
  64
  57
  50
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc., a medical technology company, engages in developing and commercializing non-invasive products for the selective reduction of fat. It offers CoolSculpting system, which utilizes proprietary controlled cooling technology to selectively reduce stubborn fat bulges. ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc. sells its products through a direct sales organization, as well as through a network of distributors to dermatologists, plastic surgeons, and aesthetic specialists primarily in North America, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company was formerly known as Juniper Medical, Inc. and changed its name to ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc. in July 2007. ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ZELTIQ Aesthetics (ZLTQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2268.2
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 16.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 141.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 252
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 38.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 47.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Equity 0.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 93.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -402.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZLTQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZLTQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $354 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ZELTIQ Aesthetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ZELTIQ Aesthetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZLTQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZLTQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ZELTIQ Aesthetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ZELTIQ Aesthetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZLTQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZLTQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ZELTIQ Aesthetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ZELTIQ Aesthetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZLTQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZLTQ are equal to 4%.

Life of production assets of 3.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ZELTIQ Aesthetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZLTQ is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $138 million for ZELTIQ Aesthetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.244 million for ZELTIQ Aesthetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ZELTIQ Aesthetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Allergan Acquires ZELTIQ For $2.47 Billion   [01:15PM  at Investopedia]
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▶ CoolSculpting Stock Gets a Double Dose of Wall Street Love   [Dec-09-16 02:03PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc (ZLTQ) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-30-16 03:07PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Nov-11-16 11:41AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Zeltiq Aesthetics Earnings: Looking Good on the Inside, Too   [Nov-10-16 09:33AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of ZLTQ Financial statements of ZLTQ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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