Intrinsic value of Zumiez - ZUMZ

Previous Close

$11.90

  Intrinsic Value

$19.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+60%

  Value-price divergence*

-19%

Previous close

$11.90

 
Intrinsic value

$19.04

 
Up/down potential

+60%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-19%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ZUMZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.98
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  836
  912
  991
  1,074
  1,160
  1,249
  1,341
  1,438
  1,538
  1,642
  1,750
  1,863
  1,980
  2,102
  2,229
  2,361
  2,499
  2,643
  2,793
  2,950
  3,114
  3,285
  3,464
  3,651
  3,847
  4,052
  4,266
  4,491
  4,726
  4,973
  5,231
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  860
  934
  1,011
  1,091
  1,175
  1,262
  1,352
  1,445
  1,543
  1,644
  1,744
  1,854
  1,968
  2,087
  2,210
  2,340
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,915
  3,076
  3,243
  3,418
  3,602
  3,794
  3,995
  4,205
  4,425
  4,656
  4,898
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  797
  860
  934
  1,011
  1,091
  1,175
  1,262
  1,352
  1,445
  1,543
  1,644
  1,744
  1,854
  1,968
  2,087
  2,210
  2,340
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,915
  3,076
  3,243
  3,418
  3,602
  3,794
  3,995
  4,205
  4,425
  4,656
  4,898
Operating income, $m
  40
  52
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
EBITDA, $m
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  404
  425
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  40
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
Tax expense, $m
  14
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Net income, $m
  26
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  427
  380
  413
  447
  483
  520
  558
  599
  640
  684
  729
  775
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,163
  1,228
  1,296
  1,368
  1,442
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,776
  1,870
  1,968
  2,070
  2,178
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  348
  380
  413
  447
  483
  520
  558
  599
  640
  684
  729
  775
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,163
  1,228
  1,296
  1,368
  1,442
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,776
  1,870
  1,968
  2,070
  2,178
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.402
  2.400
  2.400
  2.403
  2.402
  2.402
  2.403
  2.401
  2.403
  2.401
  2.401
  2.404
  2.403
  2.402
  2.402
  2.402
  2.403
  2.403
  2.402
  2.402
  2.403
  2.401
  2.402
  2.402
  2.401
  2.402
  2.402
  2.402
  2.401
  2.402
  2.402
Average production assets, $m
  147
  160
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  346
  368
  390
  413
  437
  462
  489
  516
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  709
  747
  786
  827
  870
  915
Working capital, $m
  137
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  280
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  22
  34
  47
  59
  73
  87
  101
  116
  131
  148
  164
  182
  200
  219
  239
  260
  281
  304
  327
  352
  378
  404
  433
  462
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
Total liabilities, $m
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  179
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
  359
  380
  401
  424
  447
  472
  498
  524
  553
  582
  613
  645
  679
  714
  751
Total equity, $m
  307
  249
  270
  293
  316
  341
  366
  392
  419
  448
  477
  508
  540
  573
  608
  644
  681
  721
  762
  804
  849
  896
  945
  996
  1,049
  1,105
  1,163
  1,225
  1,289
  1,356
  1,426
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  427
  380
  412
  447
  483
  520
  559
  599
  640
  684
  728
  776
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,040
  1,101
  1,163
  1,228
  1,296
  1,368
  1,443
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,776
  1,870
  1,968
  2,070
  2,177
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.040
  0.080
  0.120
  0.150
  0.170
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  26
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  304
  320
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  48
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  96
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  92
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Zumiez Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women. Its hardgoods include skateboards, snowboards, bindings, components, and other equipment. As of August 27, 2016, the company operated 674 stores, including 605 in the United States, 44 in Canada, and 25 in Europe under the names of Zumiez and Blue Tomato. It also operates zumiez.com and blue-tomato.com ecommerce Websites. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Lynnwood, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ZUMZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ZUMZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $836 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Zumiez. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Zumiez. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ZUMZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ZUMZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Zumiez, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Zumiez.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ZUMZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ZUMZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Zumiez.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Zumiez. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ZUMZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ZUMZ are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Zumiez operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ZUMZ is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $307 million for Zumiez - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.206 million for Zumiez is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Zumiez at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Zumiez Inc. Stock Lost 13% Last Month   [Jul-09-17 01:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ L Brands and Seagate skid while HSN and Zumiez jump   [Jul-06-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [09:52AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports June 2017 Sales Results   [Jul-05-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 23rd   [Jun-23-17 11:13AM  Zacks]
▶ Randy's Donuts, Odd Future strike co-branding deal with Live Nation   [Jun-22-17 05:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zumiez, Inc. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 02:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 6th   [Jun-06-17 10:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Shares of Zumiez Slumped Today   [03:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Stocks to Watch: Lululemon, Broadcom Limited, Zumiez   [09:29AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Zumiez reports 1Q loss   [Jun-01-17 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Zumiez, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Zumiez, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 05:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports April 2017 Sales Results   [May-03-17 04:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Zumiez Inc. Reports March 2017 Sales Results   [Apr-05-17 04:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Company News for March 13, 2017   [10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Charting the Market   [Mar-11-17 12:35AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why Zumiez Inc. Shares Plunged Today   [02:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ After-hours buzz: ULTA, FNSR, ZUMZ & more   [Mar-09-17 06:03PM  at CNBC]
Stock chart of ZUMZ Financial statements of ZUMZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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