Intrinsic value of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - AAAP

Previous Close

$81.59

  Intrinsic Value

$1.60

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$81.59

 
Intrinsic value

$1.60

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.34
  34.50
  31.55
  28.90
  26.51
  24.35
  22.42
  20.68
  19.11
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.07
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
Revenue, $m
  115
  155
  203
  262
  332
  413
  505
  610
  726
  855
  995
  1,147
  1,311
  1,485
  1,671
  1,867
  2,074
  2,291
  2,518
  2,756
  3,003
  3,261
  3,529
  3,808
  4,098
  4,400
  4,713
  5,038
  5,377
  5,729
  6,095
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  170
  222
  285
  360
  446
  545
  657
  782
  920
  1,071
  1,230
  1,406
  1,593
  1,792
  2,003
  2,225
  2,458
  2,701
  2,956
  3,222
  3,498
  3,786
  4,085
  4,396
  4,720
  5,056
  5,405
  5,768
  6,145
  6,538
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  136
  170
  222
  285
  360
  446
  545
  657
  782
  920
  1,071
  1,230
  1,406
  1,593
  1,792
  2,003
  2,225
  2,458
  2,701
  2,956
  3,222
  3,498
  3,786
  4,085
  4,396
  4,720
  5,056
  5,405
  5,768
  6,145
  6,538
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -15
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -48
  -56
  -66
  -76
  -83
  -95
  -108
  -121
  -136
  -151
  -167
  -183
  -200
  -218
  -237
  -257
  -277
  -298
  -320
  -343
  -366
  -391
  -416
  -443
EBITDA, $m
  -8
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  3
  5
  8
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  94
  105
  116
  128
  141
  154
  168
  182
  197
  212
  228
  245
  262
  280
  299
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -116
  -131
  -151
  -172
  -195
  -219
  -244
  -271
  -299
  -329
  -359
  -391
  -424
  -459
  -495
  -532
  -571
  -611
  -653
  -696
  -742
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -116
  -131
  -151
  -172
  -195
  -219
  -244
  -271
  -299
  -329
  -359
  -391
  -424
  -459
  -495
  -532
  -571
  -611
  -653
  -696
  -742

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  234
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  442
  280
  368
  474
  600
  746
  913
  1,102
  1,313
  1,545
  1,799
  2,074
  2,370
  2,686
  3,021
  3,376
  3,750
  4,143
  4,554
  4,983
  5,431
  5,897
  6,382
  6,887
  7,411
  7,956
  8,523
  9,111
  9,723
  10,359
  11,021
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  280
  368
  474
  600
  746
  913
  1,102
  1,313
  1,545
  1,799
  2,074
  2,370
  2,686
  3,021
  3,376
  3,750
  4,143
  4,554
  4,983
  5,431
  5,897
  6,382
  6,887
  7,411
  7,956
  8,523
  9,111
  9,723
  10,359
  11,021
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.553
  0.554
  0.552
  0.553
  0.553
  0.554
  0.553
  0.554
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
Average production assets, $m
  41
  55
  73
  94
  118
  147
  180
  218
  259
  305
  355
  409
  468
  530
  596
  667
  740
  818
  899
  984
  1,072
  1,164
  1,260
  1,360
  1,463
  1,571
  1,683
  1,799
  1,920
  2,045
  2,176
Working capital, $m
  242
  16
  21
  27
  35
  43
  53
  63
  76
  89
  103
  119
  136
  154
  174
  194
  216
  238
  262
  287
  312
  339
  367
  396
  426
  458
  490
  524
  559
  596
  634
Total debt, $m
  17
  55
  107
  169
  243
  329
  427
  538
  662
  798
  947
  1,108
  1,282
  1,468
  1,665
  1,873
  2,092
  2,323
  2,564
  2,816
  3,079
  3,353
  3,637
  3,934
  4,241
  4,561
  4,894
  5,239
  5,598
  5,972
  6,360
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  164
  216
  278
  352
  438
  536
  647
  771
  907
  1,056
  1,217
  1,391
  1,577
  1,774
  1,982
  2,201
  2,432
  2,673
  2,925
  3,188
  3,462
  3,746
  4,043
  4,350
  4,670
  5,003
  5,348
  5,707
  6,081
  6,469
Total equity, $m
  316
  116
  152
  196
  248
  308
  377
  455
  542
  638
  743
  857
  979
  1,109
  1,248
  1,394
  1,549
  1,711
  1,881
  2,058
  2,243
  2,436
  2,636
  2,844
  3,061
  3,286
  3,520
  3,763
  4,016
  4,278
  4,552
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  442
  280
  368
  474
  600
  746
  913
  1,102
  1,313
  1,545
  1,799
  2,074
  2,370
  2,686
  3,022
  3,376
  3,750
  4,143
  4,554
  4,983
  5,431
  5,898
  6,382
  6,887
  7,411
  7,956
  8,523
  9,111
  9,723
  10,359
  11,021
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.054
  0.480
  0.700
  0.860
  0.980
  1.070
  1.130
  1.180
  1.220
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -83
  -99
  -116
  -131
  -151
  -172
  -195
  -219
  -244
  -271
  -299
  -329
  -359
  -391
  -424
  -459
  -495
  -532
  -571
  -611
  -653
  -696
  -742
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  135
  149
  163
  179
  195
  212
  229
  247
  266
  286
  306
  327
  349
  372
  396
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -2
  -4
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -56
  -66
  -76
  -86
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -136
  -150
  -164
  -179
  -195
  -212
  -229
  -246
  -265
  -284
  -304
  -325
  -346
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -94
  -106
  -118
  -131
  -145
  -159
  -174
  -190
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -297
  -318
  -339
  -361
  -384
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -65
  -74
  -85
  -96
  -108
  -121
  -135
  -149
  -163
  -179
  -195
  -212
  -229
  -247
  -266
  -286
  -306
  -327
  -349
  -372
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -82
  -93
  -105
  -119
  -132
  -147
  -162
  -178
  -195
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -287
  -308
  -329
  -351
  -374
  -398
  -422
  -448
  -475
  -503
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -60
  -74
  -90
  -107
  -126
  -146
  -168
  -191
  -215
  -241
  -268
  -297
  -326
  -357
  -389
  -423
  -457
  -493
  -530
  -569
  -609
  -651
  -695
  -740
  -787
  -836
  -887
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  42
  52
  62
  74
  86
  98
  111
  124
  136
  149
  161
  174
  185
  197
  208
  219
  230
  241
  252
  263
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  332
  345
  359
  373
  389
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  155
  45
  58
  72
  88
  106
  126
  147
  170
  195
  221
  244
  273
  303
  333
  366
  399
  433
  469
  506
  544
  584
  625
  667
  711
  757
  805
  854
  906
  959
  1,015
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  144
  87
  110
  134
  162
  192
  224
  258
  294
  331
  370
  405
  447
  488
  530
  574
  618
  663
  710
  758
  807
  858
  910
  963
  1,019
  1,077
  1,137
  1,199
  1,265
  1,332
  1,404
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  60
  73
  87
  102
  118
  134
  151
  168
  185
  202
  215
  231
  247
  262
  277
  292
  307
  321
  335
  350
  364
  379
  394
  410
  426
  442
  460
  478
  497
  517
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -137
  -45
  -58
  -72
  -88
  -106
  -126
  -147
  -170
  -195
  -221
  -244
  -273
  -303
  -333
  -366
  -399
  -433
  -469
  -506
  -544
  -584
  -625
  -667
  -711
  -757
  -805
  -854
  -906
  -959
  -1,015
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  245
  15
  15
  14
  12
  8
  4
  -2
  -10
  -19
  -30
  -42
  -56
  -71
  -88
  -107
  -127
  -148
  -171
  -194
  -219
  -246
  -273
  -302
  -331
  -362
  -394
  -428
  -462
  -498
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  234
  14
  13
  11
  9
  6
  3
  -1
  -6
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.0
  90.5
  86.4
  82.7
  79.3
  76.2
  73.3
  70.7
  68.2
  66.0
  63.9
  61.9
  60.0
  58.3
  56.6
  55.0
  53.5
  52.1
  50.8
  49.4
  48.2
  47.0
  45.8
  44.7
  43.6
  42.6
  41.6
  40.6
  39.7
  38.7

Advanced Accelerator Applications S.A. is a radiopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, produces and commercializes molecular nuclear medicine (MNM), diagnostic and therapeutic products. MNM uses trace amounts of radioactive compounds to create functional images of organs and lesions and to treat diseases, such as cancer. The Company has a portfolio of nine diagnostic positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) products. PET and SPECT are imaging techniques in molecular nuclear diagnostics (MND) with applications in clinical oncology, cardiology, neurology and inflammatory/infectious diseases. Its commercial products include Gluscan/Gluscan 500/Barnascan, FluoroChol, MIBITEC/Adamibi, DOPAVIEW, Leukokit, Neurolite, SomaKit and NETSPOT. Additional MND product candidates include Annexin V-128, a SPECT product candidate for the imaging of apoptotic and necrotic lesions with potential applications in a range of indications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR (AAAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -265.8
Price to Sales 62.4
Price to Book 22.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1435.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -377.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.1%
Total Debt to Equity 5.4%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Total Capital -10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Equity -10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.9%
EBITDA Margin -10.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Operating Margin -18.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Net Profit Margin -23.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Effective Tax Rate -3.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $115 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AAAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAAP are equal to 35.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAAP is equal to 10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $316 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.774 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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Financial statements of AAAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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