Intrinsic value of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - AAAP

Previous Close

$71.06

  Intrinsic Value

$1.86

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-92%

Previous close

$71.06

 
Intrinsic value

$1.86

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-92%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.34
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  115
  144
  177
  214
  256
  303
  354
  409
  468
  532
  600
  672
  748
  827
  911
  998
  1,089
  1,184
  1,282
  1,385
  1,491
  1,602
  1,717
  1,837
  1,962
  2,091
  2,226
  2,366
  2,511
  2,663
  2,821
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  158
  193
  233
  278
  328
  383
  442
  506
  574
  647
  721
  802
  887
  977
  1,070
  1,168
  1,270
  1,375
  1,485
  1,600
  1,719
  1,842
  1,971
  2,104
  2,243
  2,387
  2,538
  2,694
  2,857
  3,027
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  136
  158
  193
  233
  278
  328
  383
  442
  506
  574
  647
  721
  802
  887
  977
  1,070
  1,168
  1,270
  1,375
  1,485
  1,600
  1,719
  1,842
  1,971
  2,104
  2,243
  2,387
  2,538
  2,694
  2,857
  3,027
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
EBITDA, $m
  -8
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -127
  -138
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -190
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -267
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -341
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -127
  -138
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -190
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -267
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -341

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  234
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  442
  260
  320
  388
  463
  547
  639
  739
  847
  962
  1,085
  1,215
  1,352
  1,496
  1,647
  1,804
  1,969
  2,140
  2,319
  2,504
  2,697
  2,897
  3,106
  3,322
  3,547
  3,781
  4,024
  4,278
  4,541
  4,816
  5,102
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  260
  320
  388
  463
  547
  639
  739
  847
  962
  1,085
  1,215
  1,352
  1,496
  1,647
  1,804
  1,969
  2,140
  2,319
  2,504
  2,697
  2,897
  3,106
  3,322
  3,547
  3,781
  4,024
  4,278
  4,541
  4,816
  5,102
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.553
  0.554
  0.553
  0.552
  0.553
  0.554
  0.554
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
Average production assets, $m
  41
  51
  63
  77
  91
  108
  126
  146
  167
  190
  214
  240
  267
  295
  325
  356
  389
  423
  458
  494
  532
  572
  613
  656
  700
  746
  795
  844
  897
  951
  1,007
Working capital, $m
  242
  15
  18
  22
  27
  31
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  293
Total debt, $m
  17
  44
  79
  118
  163
  212
  266
  325
  388
  456
  528
  604
  685
  769
  858
  950
  1,047
  1,147
  1,252
  1,361
  1,474
  1,592
  1,714
  1,841
  1,973
  2,110
  2,253
  2,402
  2,557
  2,718
  2,886
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  153
  188
  227
  272
  321
  375
  434
  497
  565
  637
  713
  794
  878
  967
  1,059
  1,156
  1,256
  1,361
  1,470
  1,583
  1,701
  1,823
  1,950
  2,082
  2,219
  2,362
  2,511
  2,666
  2,827
  2,995
Total equity, $m
  316
  107
  132
  160
  191
  226
  264
  305
  350
  397
  448
  502
  558
  618
  680
  745
  813
  884
  958
  1,034
  1,114
  1,197
  1,283
  1,372
  1,465
  1,562
  1,662
  1,767
  1,876
  1,989
  2,107
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  442
  260
  320
  387
  463
  547
  639
  739
  847
  962
  1,085
  1,215
  1,352
  1,496
  1,647
  1,804
  1,969
  2,140
  2,319
  2,504
  2,697
  2,898
  3,106
  3,322
  3,547
  3,781
  4,024
  4,278
  4,542
  4,816
  5,102
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.054
  0.410
  0.600
  0.740
  0.850
  0.940
  1.010
  1.060
  1.110
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.230
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -127
  -138
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -190
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -267
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -341
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  144
  154
  163
  173
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -194
  -206
  -217
  -229
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -56
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -138
  -150
  -163
  -176
  -190
  -204
  -219
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -302
  -321
  -340
  -360
  -382
  -404
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  31
  35
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  155
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  129
  141
  154
  167
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  459
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  144
  67
  78
  91
  104
  117
  132
  147
  161
  177
  193
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  292
  310
  329
  349
  369
  391
  412
  436
  460
  484
  511
  538
  567
  596
  627
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  44
  50
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  94
  99
  101
  107
  112
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -137
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -59
  -68
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -129
  -141
  -154
  -167
  -181
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -290
  -309
  -328
  -347
  -368
  -389
  -412
  -435
  -459
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  238
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -6
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -75
  -85
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -128
  -140
  -152
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -206
  -220
  -236
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  228
  6
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -4
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.0
  92.2
  88.7
  85.5
  82.6
  79.8
  77.2
  74.8
  72.5
  70.4
  68.4
  66.5
  64.7
  63.0
  61.4
  59.8
  58.3
  56.8
  55.4
  54.1
  52.8
  51.5
  50.3
  49.1
  48.0
  46.9
  45.8
  44.7
  43.7
  42.7

Advanced Accelerator Applications S.A. is a radiopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, produces and commercializes molecular nuclear medicine (MNM), diagnostic and therapeutic products. MNM uses trace amounts of radioactive compounds to create functional images of organs and lesions and to treat diseases, such as cancer. The Company has a portfolio of nine diagnostic positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) products. PET and SPECT are imaging techniques in molecular nuclear diagnostics (MND) with applications in clinical oncology, cardiology, neurology and inflammatory/infectious diseases. Its commercial products include Gluscan/Gluscan 500/Barnascan, FluoroChol, MIBITEC/Adamibi, DOPAVIEW, Leukokit, Neurolite, SomaKit and NETSPOT. Additional MND product candidates include Annexin V-128, a SPECT product candidate for the imaging of apoptotic and necrotic lesions with potential applications in a range of indications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR (AAAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -231.5
Price to Sales 54.3
Price to Book 19.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1249.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -328.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.1%
Total Debt to Equity 5.4%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Total Capital -10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Equity -10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.9%
EBITDA Margin -10.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Operating Margin -18.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Net Profit Margin -23.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Effective Tax Rate -3.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $115 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AAAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAAP are equal to 35.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAAP is equal to 10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $316 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.184 million for Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Accelerator Applications ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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Financial statements of AAAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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