Intrinsic value of American Assets Trust - AAT

Previous Close

$36.22

  Intrinsic Value

$4.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$36.22

 
Intrinsic value

$4.28

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AAT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.88
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  295
  318
  343
  368
  394
  421
  449
  479
  509
  541
  574
  609
  645
  682
  721
  762
  805
  849
  896
  945
  996
  1,049
  1,105
  1,163
  1,224
  1,288
  1,355
  1,426
  1,499
  1,577
  1,658
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  208
  224
  240
  258
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  398
  422
  446
  472
  499
  526
  556
  586
  618
  651
  686
  723
  761
  801
  843
  886
  932
  981
  1,031
  1,084
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  197
  208
  224
  240
  258
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  398
  422
  446
  472
  499
  526
  556
  586
  618
  651
  686
  723
  761
  801
  843
  886
  932
  981
  1,031
  1,084
Operating income, $m
  98
  110
  119
  127
  136
  146
  155
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  493
  519
  546
  574
EBITDA, $m
  169
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  264
  281
  299
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  423
  447
  472
  499
  526
  555
  584
  616
  648
  683
  719
  756
  796
  837
  880
  926
  973
Interest expense (income), $m
  48
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  62
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
Net income, $m
  46
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,987
  2,094
  2,253
  2,419
  2,591
  2,770
  2,956
  3,149
  3,350
  3,560
  3,778
  4,005
  4,242
  4,488
  4,746
  5,015
  5,295
  5,589
  5,895
  6,215
  6,551
  6,901
  7,268
  7,652
  8,055
  8,476
  8,917
  9,380
  9,865
  10,373
  10,906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,942
  2,094
  2,253
  2,419
  2,591
  2,770
  2,956
  3,149
  3,350
  3,560
  3,778
  4,005
  4,242
  4,488
  4,746
  5,015
  5,295
  5,589
  5,895
  6,215
  6,551
  6,901
  7,268
  7,652
  8,055
  8,476
  8,917
  9,380
  9,865
  10,373
  10,906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
Average production assets, $m
  1,849
  1,994
  2,146
  2,304
  2,468
  2,638
  2,815
  3,000
  3,191
  3,390
  3,598
  3,814
  4,040
  4,275
  4,520
  4,776
  5,043
  5,323
  5,615
  5,920
  6,239
  6,573
  6,922
  7,288
  7,672
  8,073
  8,493
  8,934
  9,396
  9,880
  10,387
Working capital, $m
  0
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
Total debt, $m
  1,062
  1,154
  1,251
  1,351
  1,455
  1,564
  1,676
  1,793
  1,915
  2,042
  2,174
  2,312
  2,455
  2,605
  2,761
  2,924
  3,094
  3,272
  3,457
  3,652
  3,855
  4,067
  4,290
  4,522
  4,766
  5,021
  5,289
  5,569
  5,863
  6,171
  6,494
Total liabilities, $m
  1,177
  1,269
  1,366
  1,466
  1,570
  1,679
  1,791
  1,908
  2,030
  2,157
  2,289
  2,427
  2,570
  2,720
  2,876
  3,039
  3,209
  3,387
  3,572
  3,767
  3,970
  4,182
  4,405
  4,637
  4,881
  5,136
  5,404
  5,684
  5,978
  6,286
  6,609
Total equity, $m
  810
  825
  888
  953
  1,021
  1,091
  1,165
  1,241
  1,320
  1,403
  1,488
  1,578
  1,671
  1,768
  1,870
  1,976
  2,086
  2,202
  2,323
  2,449
  2,581
  2,719
  2,864
  3,015
  3,174
  3,340
  3,513
  3,696
  3,887
  4,087
  4,297
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,987
  2,094
  2,254
  2,419
  2,591
  2,770
  2,956
  3,149
  3,350
  3,560
  3,777
  4,005
  4,241
  4,488
  4,746
  5,015
  5,295
  5,589
  5,895
  6,216
  6,551
  6,901
  7,269
  7,652
  8,055
  8,476
  8,917
  9,380
  9,865
  10,373
  10,906
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.311
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  46
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  327
  344
  361
  380
  400
Funds from operations, $m
  125
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  286
  301
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  412
  433
  456
  479
  504
  530
  557
  586
  615
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  276
  292
  308
  324
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
  489
  514
  541
  568
  597
  628
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -361
  -380
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -430
  -451
  -473
  -497
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -603
  -632
  -663
  -696
  -730
  -768
  -806
  -845
  -887
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  92
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  15
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  107
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  127
  132
  136
  140
  145
  149
  156
  161
  167
  173
  181
  188
  195
  204
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  15
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.1
  98.3
  97.6
  97.0
  96.5
  96.0
  95.6
  95.3
  95.0
  94.7
  94.5
  94.3
  94.2
  94.0
  93.9
  93.9
  93.8
  93.8
  93.8
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7
  93.7

American Assets Trust, Inc. is a full service, vertically integrated and self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns, operates, acquires and develops retail, office, multifamily and mixed-use properties in Southern California, Northern California, Oregon, Washington, Texas and Hawaii markets. The Company operates in four business segments: retail, office, multifamily and mixed-use. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of 11 retail shopping centers; seven office properties; a mixed-use property consisting of a 369-room all-suite hotel and a retail shopping center, and five multifamily properties. Additionally, as of December 31, 2016, the Company owned land at four of its properties that it classified as held for development and construction in progress. The Company's markets include San Diego, the San Francisco Bay Area, Portland, Oregon, Bellevue, Washington and Oahu, Hawaii.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Assets Trust (AAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 131.1%
Total Debt to Equity 131.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.3%
EBITDA Margin 55.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
Operating Margin 33.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 139.1%

AAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $295 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Assets Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Assets Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for AAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Assets Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Assets Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for American Assets Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Assets Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAT are equal to 626.6%.

Life of production assets of 26 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Assets Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAT is equal to -15.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $810 million for American Assets Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.333 million for American Assets Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Assets Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [03:41PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-01-17 08:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 06:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Sep-11-17 03:15PM  GuruFocus.com]
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▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Aug-14-17 12:06PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 2Q results   [06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [May-22-17 01:55PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Mar-20-17 01:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Assets Trust CEO Invests in Company   [Feb-28-17 11:03AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Feb-27-17 11:59AM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of AAT
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