Intrinsic value of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings - AAWW

Previous Close

$59.90

  Intrinsic Value

$16.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$59.90

 
Intrinsic value

$16.84

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AAWW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.89
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.25
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  2,527
  2,931
  3,367
  3,835
  4,333
  4,862
  5,420
  6,008
  6,624
  7,268
  7,940
  8,641
  9,371
  10,130
  10,920
  11,740
  12,592
  13,478
  14,399
  15,356
  16,352
  17,387
  18,466
  19,589
  20,759
  21,978
  23,251
  24,578
  25,964
  27,411
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,936
  2,244
  2,576
  2,933
  3,313
  3,716
  4,141
  4,589
  5,058
  5,549
  6,051
  6,585
  7,142
  7,720
  8,322
  8,947
  9,596
  10,271
  10,973
  11,703
  12,461
  13,251
  14,072
  14,928
  15,820
  16,749
  17,719
  18,731
  19,787
  20,890
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  271
  277
  283
  289
  295
  302
  309
  315
  322
  329
  337
  344
  352
  359
  367
  375
  384
  392
  401
  410
  419
  428
  437
  447
  457
  467
  477
  487
  498
  509
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,207
  2,521
  2,859
  3,222
  3,608
  4,018
  4,450
  4,904
  5,380
  5,878
  6,388
  6,929
  7,494
  8,079
  8,689
  9,322
  9,980
  10,663
  11,374
  12,113
  12,880
  13,679
  14,509
  15,375
  16,277
  17,216
  18,196
  19,218
  20,285
  21,399
Operating income, $m
  320
  410
  508
  613
  725
  844
  970
  1,103
  1,243
  1,389
  1,552
  1,712
  1,878
  2,051
  2,231
  2,418
  2,612
  2,815
  3,025
  3,244
  3,472
  3,709
  3,956
  4,214
  4,482
  4,762
  5,055
  5,360
  5,679
  6,013
EBITDA, $m
  785
  948
  1,124
  1,314
  1,516
  1,730
  1,957
  2,196
  2,446
  2,709
  2,983
  3,268
  3,566
  3,875
  4,197
  4,532
  4,880
  5,242
  5,618
  6,010
  6,417
  6,840
  7,282
  7,742
  8,221
  8,721
  9,242
  9,787
  10,355
  10,949
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  120
  150
  182
  216
  253
  293
  335
  379
  426
  475
  526
  579
  635
  693
  753
  816
  881
  948
  1,018
  1,091
  1,167
  1,246
  1,329
  1,414
  1,503
  1,596
  1,693
  1,794
  1,899
  2,009
Earnings before tax, $m
  199
  260
  326
  396
  471
  551
  635
  724
  817
  914
  1,027
  1,133
  1,243
  1,358
  1,478
  1,602
  1,732
  1,866
  2,007
  2,152
  2,304
  2,463
  2,628
  2,800
  2,979
  3,166
  3,362
  3,566
  3,780
  4,004
Tax expense, $m
  54
  70
  88
  107
  127
  149
  172
  195
  221
  247
  277
  306
  336
  367
  399
  433
  468
  504
  542
  581
  622
  665
  709
  756
  804
  855
  908
  963
  1,021
  1,081
Net income, $m
  146
  190
  238
  289
  344
  402
  464
  529
  596
  667
  749
  827
  907
  991
  1,079
  1,170
  1,264
  1,362
  1,465
  1,571
  1,682
  1,798
  1,918
  2,044
  2,175
  2,311
  2,454
  2,604
  2,760
  2,923

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,809
  6,737
  7,740
  8,815
  9,961
  11,177
  12,461
  13,811
  15,226
  16,708
  18,254
  19,865
  21,543
  23,288
  25,102
  26,988
  28,948
  30,984
  33,101
  35,301
  37,590
  39,971
  42,450
  45,031
  47,721
  50,525
  53,450
  56,501
  59,687
  63,014
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,809
  6,737
  7,740
  8,815
  9,961
  11,177
  12,461
  13,811
  15,226
  16,708
  18,254
  19,865
  21,543
  23,288
  25,102
  26,988
  28,948
  30,984
  33,101
  35,301
  37,590
  39,971
  42,450
  45,031
  47,721
  50,525
  53,450
  56,501
  59,687
  63,014
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
Average production assets, $m
  4,551
  5,278
  6,064
  6,906
  7,804
  8,756
  9,762
  10,820
  11,929
  13,089
  14,301
  15,563
  16,877
  18,245
  19,666
  21,143
  22,679
  24,274
  25,932
  27,656
  29,449
  31,315
  33,257
  35,279
  37,386
  39,583
  41,874
  44,265
  46,761
  49,368
Working capital, $m
  -76
  -88
  -101
  -115
  -130
  -146
  -163
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -238
  -259
  -281
  -304
  -328
  -352
  -378
  -404
  -432
  -461
  -491
  -522
  -554
  -588
  -623
  -659
  -698
  -737
  -779
  -822
Total debt, $m
  2,773
  3,367
  4,007
  4,694
  5,427
  6,204
  7,024
  7,887
  8,791
  9,738
  10,726
  11,755
  12,827
  13,943
  15,102
  16,307
  17,559
  18,860
  20,213
  21,619
  23,081
  24,603
  26,187
  27,836
  29,555
  31,347
  33,216
  35,166
  37,202
  39,328
Total liabilities, $m
  3,712
  4,305
  4,946
  5,633
  6,365
  7,142
  7,962
  8,825
  9,730
  10,676
  11,664
  12,694
  13,766
  14,881
  16,040
  17,245
  18,498
  19,799
  21,151
  22,557
  24,020
  25,541
  27,125
  28,775
  30,494
  32,285
  34,154
  36,104
  38,140
  40,266
Total equity, $m
  2,097
  2,432
  2,794
  3,182
  3,596
  4,035
  4,498
  4,986
  5,497
  6,031
  6,590
  7,171
  7,777
  8,407
  9,062
  9,743
  10,450
  11,185
  11,949
  12,744
  13,570
  14,430
  15,324
  16,256
  17,227
  18,240
  19,295
  20,397
  21,547
  22,748
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,809
  6,737
  7,740
  8,815
  9,961
  11,177
  12,460
  13,811
  15,227
  16,707
  18,254
  19,865
  21,543
  23,288
  25,102
  26,988
  28,948
  30,984
  33,100
  35,301
  37,590
  39,971
  42,449
  45,031
  47,721
  50,525
  53,449
  56,501
  59,687
  63,014
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.320
  1.380
  1.430
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  146
  190
  238
  289
  344
  402
  464
  529
  596
  667
  749
  827
  907
  991
  1,079
  1,170
  1,264
  1,362
  1,465
  1,571
  1,682
  1,798
  1,918
  2,044
  2,175
  2,311
  2,454
  2,604
  2,760
  2,923
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  466
  538
  617
  701
  791
  886
  987
  1,093
  1,203
  1,320
  1,430
  1,556
  1,688
  1,824
  1,967
  2,114
  2,268
  2,427
  2,593
  2,766
  2,945
  3,131
  3,326
  3,528
  3,739
  3,958
  4,187
  4,427
  4,676
  4,937
Funds from operations, $m
  611
  728
  855
  990
  1,135
  1,289
  1,451
  1,621
  1,800
  1,987
  2,179
  2,383
  2,595
  2,816
  3,045
  3,284
  3,532
  3,790
  4,058
  4,337
  4,627
  4,929
  5,244
  5,572
  5,913
  6,270
  6,642
  7,030
  7,436
  7,859
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
Cash from operations, $m
  622
  740
  868
  1,004
  1,150
  1,304
  1,467
  1,639
  1,818
  2,006
  2,200
  2,404
  2,617
  2,839
  3,069
  3,309
  3,558
  3,816
  4,086
  4,366
  4,657
  4,960
  5,276
  5,605
  5,948
  6,306
  6,680
  7,070
  7,477
  7,903
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -388
  -455
  -528
  -606
  -691
  -780
  -876
  -976
  -1,082
  -1,193
  -1,309
  -1,430
  -1,556
  -1,688
  -1,824
  -1,967
  -2,114
  -2,268
  -2,427
  -2,593
  -2,766
  -2,945
  -3,131
  -3,326
  -3,528
  -3,739
  -3,958
  -4,187
  -4,427
  -4,676
New CAPEX, $m
  -668
  -727
  -785
  -842
  -898
  -952
  -1,006
  -1,058
  -1,109
  -1,160
  -1,211
  -1,263
  -1,314
  -1,367
  -1,421
  -1,477
  -1,535
  -1,595
  -1,658
  -1,724
  -1,793
  -1,866
  -1,942
  -2,022
  -2,107
  -2,197
  -2,291
  -2,391
  -2,496
  -2,607
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,056
  -1,182
  -1,313
  -1,448
  -1,589
  -1,732
  -1,882
  -2,034
  -2,191
  -2,353
  -2,520
  -2,693
  -2,870
  -3,055
  -3,245
  -3,444
  -3,649
  -3,863
  -4,085
  -4,317
  -4,559
  -4,811
  -5,073
  -5,348
  -5,635
  -5,936
  -6,249
  -6,578
  -6,923
  -7,283
Free cash flow, $m
  -434
  -442
  -445
  -444
  -439
  -428
  -414
  -395
  -373
  -347
  -321
  -288
  -254
  -216
  -177
  -135
  -92
  -47
  0
  48
  98
  150
  203
  257
  313
  371
  430
  492
  555
  620
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  546
  593
  641
  687
  733
  777
  820
  863
  905
  946
  988
  1,030
  1,072
  1,115
  1,159
  1,205
  1,252
  1,301
  1,352
  1,406
  1,462
  1,522
  1,584
  1,650
  1,719
  1,792
  1,869
  1,950
  2,036
  2,126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  161
  145
  124
  99
  70
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  707
  738
  765
  786
  803
  814
  820
  863
  905
  946
  988
  1,030
  1,072
  1,115
  1,159
  1,205
  1,252
  1,301
  1,352
  1,406
  1,462
  1,522
  1,584
  1,650
  1,719
  1,792
  1,869
  1,950
  2,036
  2,126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  274
  296
  319
  342
  364
  385
  406
  468
  532
  600
  667
  741
  818
  899
  983
  1,070
  1,160
  1,254
  1,353
  1,455
  1,561
  1,671
  1,787
  1,907
  2,032
  2,163
  2,299
  2,442
  2,591
  2,746
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -307
  -335
  -362
  -388
  -414
  -439
  -463
  -487
  -511
  -535
  -558
  -582
  -606
  -630
  -655
  -681
  -707
  -735
  -764
  -794
  -826
  -860
  -895
  -932
  -971
  -1,012
  -1,056
  -1,102
  -1,150
  -1,201
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -33
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -20
  21
  65
  109
  160
  213
  269
  328
  389
  453
  519
  588
  660
  735
  812
  892
  975
  1,061
  1,151
  1,243
  1,340
  1,440
  1,545
Discount rate, %
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -30
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -29
  -9
  8
  21
  30
  36
  40
  40
  39
  36
  32
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.3
  83.4
  78.6
  75.4
  73.5
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. is a holding company. The Company provides outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services throughout the world, serving Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, North America and South America through contractual service arrangements, including those through which it provides aircraft to customers and value-added services, including crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI), as well as those through which it provides crew, maintenance and insurance, but not the aircraft (CMI); cargo and passenger charter services (Charter), and dry leasing aircraft and engines (Dry Leasing). The Company's segments include ACMI, Charter and Dry Leasing. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated fleet of 747 freighters and provided customers a range of 747, 777, 767, 757 and 737 aircraft for domestic, regional and international cargo and passenger applications. Its subsidiaries include Atlas Air, Inc. (Atlas) and Southern Air, Inc. (Southern Air).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 109.8%
Total Debt to Equity 122%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 2.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.6%
EBITDA Margin 17.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Operating Margin 9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 51.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

AAWW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AAWW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2156 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AAWW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for AAWW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AAWW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $265 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AAWW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AAWW stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AAWW are equal to 180.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AAWW is equal to -3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1790 million for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25 million for Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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