Intrinsic value of Abeona Therapeutics Inc. - ABEO

Previous Close

$4.62

  Intrinsic Value

$0.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$4.62

 
Intrinsic value

$0.88

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABEO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  2
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  55
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  132
  149
  166
  184
  203
  224
  245
  266
  289
  313
  338
  363
Variable operating expenses, $m
  45
  69
  103
  150
  211
  290
  390
  512
  658
  832
  1,033
  1,262
  1,522
  1,810
  2,129
  2,476
  2,852
  3,257
  3,688
  4,147
  4,631
  5,142
  5,677
  6,238
  6,823
  7,434
  8,070
  8,731
  9,419
  10,134
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  45
  69
  103
  150
  211
  290
  390
  512
  658
  832
  1,033
  1,262
  1,522
  1,810
  2,129
  2,476
  2,852
  3,257
  3,688
  4,147
  4,631
  5,142
  5,677
  6,238
  6,823
  7,434
  8,070
  8,731
  9,419
  10,134
Operating income, $m
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -144
  -204
  -280
  -376
  -493
  -635
  -802
  -996
  -1,217
  -1,467
  -1,746
  -2,052
  -2,387
  -2,750
  -3,140
  -3,556
  -3,998
  -4,465
  -4,957
  -5,474
  -6,014
  -6,579
  -7,167
  -7,781
  -8,418
  -9,082
  -9,771
EBITDA, $m
  -42
  -65
  -97
  -141
  -198
  -273
  -366
  -481
  -619
  -781
  -970
  -1,186
  -1,430
  -1,701
  -2,001
  -2,327
  -2,681
  -3,061
  -3,466
  -3,897
  -4,353
  -4,832
  -5,336
  -5,862
  -6,413
  -6,987
  -7,584
  -8,206
  -8,852
  -9,524
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
Earnings before tax, $m
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -206
  -283
  -380
  -500
  -643
  -813
  -1,009
  -1,234
  -1,488
  -1,771
  -2,083
  -2,423
  -2,792
  -3,188
  -3,611
  -4,061
  -4,536
  -5,036
  -5,561
  -6,111
  -6,685
  -7,284
  -7,908
  -8,556
  -9,231
  -9,932
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -206
  -283
  -380
  -500
  -643
  -813
  -1,009
  -1,234
  -1,488
  -1,771
  -2,083
  -2,423
  -2,792
  -3,188
  -3,611
  -4,061
  -4,536
  -5,036
  -5,561
  -6,111
  -6,685
  -7,284
  -7,908
  -8,556
  -9,231
  -9,932

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  76
  118
  176
  255
  360
  495
  665
  873
  1,124
  1,419
  1,762
  2,155
  2,597
  3,090
  3,633
  4,226
  4,868
  5,558
  6,295
  7,078
  7,905
  8,776
  9,690
  10,647
  11,646
  12,688
  13,773
  14,902
  16,077
  17,297
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  76
  118
  176
  255
  360
  495
  665
  873
  1,124
  1,419
  1,762
  2,155
  2,597
  3,090
  3,633
  4,226
  4,868
  5,558
  6,295
  7,078
  7,905
  8,776
  9,690
  10,647
  11,646
  12,688
  13,773
  14,902
  16,077
  17,297
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.026
  0.017
  0.023
  0.020
  0.022
  0.020
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
  0.021
Average production assets, $m
  33
  50
  75
  109
  154
  212
  284
  374
  481
  607
  754
  922
  1,111
  1,322
  1,554
  1,808
  2,083
  2,378
  2,693
  3,028
  3,382
  3,754
  4,145
  4,554
  4,982
  5,428
  5,892
  6,375
  6,877
  7,399
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -39
  -51
  -65
  -82
  -102
  -125
  -151
  -179
  -211
  -245
  -283
  -323
  -366
  -411
  -459
  -510
  -563
  -618
  -676
  -737
  -800
  -865
  -933
  -1,004
Total debt, $m
  6
  13
  24
  39
  58
  83
  115
  154
  200
  255
  319
  392
  474
  566
  667
  777
  897
  1,025
  1,162
  1,308
  1,462
  1,624
  1,794
  1,972
  2,157
  2,351
  2,553
  2,763
  2,982
  3,209
Total liabilities, $m
  14
  22
  33
  48
  67
  92
  124
  162
  209
  264
  328
  401
  483
  575
  676
  786
  906
  1,034
  1,171
  1,316
  1,470
  1,632
  1,802
  1,980
  2,166
  2,360
  2,562
  2,772
  2,990
  3,217
Total equity, $m
  62
  96
  143
  208
  293
  403
  541
  711
  915
  1,155
  1,435
  1,754
  2,114
  2,515
  2,957
  3,440
  3,963
  4,524
  5,124
  5,761
  6,434
  7,143
  7,887
  8,666
  9,480
  10,328
  11,211
  12,131
  13,086
  14,080
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  76
  118
  176
  256
  360
  495
  665
  873
  1,124
  1,419
  1,763
  2,155
  2,597
  3,090
  3,633
  4,226
  4,869
  5,558
  6,295
  7,077
  7,904
  8,775
  9,689
  10,646
  11,646
  12,688
  13,773
  14,903
  16,076
  17,297
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.140
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814
  0.814

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -43
  -67
  -100
  -146
  -206
  -283
  -380
  -500
  -643
  -813
  -1,009
  -1,234
  -1,488
  -1,771
  -2,083
  -2,423
  -2,792
  -3,188
  -3,611
  -4,061
  -4,536
  -5,036
  -5,561
  -6,111
  -6,685
  -7,284
  -7,908
  -8,556
  -9,231
  -9,932
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  152
  166
  181
  196
  213
  229
  247
Funds from operations, $m
  -42
  -65
  -98
  -142
  -201
  -276
  -371
  -487
  -627
  -792
  -984
  -1,204
  -1,451
  -1,727
  -2,031
  -2,363
  -2,723
  -3,109
  -3,522
  -3,960
  -4,423
  -4,911
  -5,423
  -5,959
  -6,519
  -7,103
  -7,711
  -8,344
  -9,002
  -9,685
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
Cash from operations, $m
  -40
  -63
  -94
  -137
  -194
  -268
  -361
  -475
  -612
  -775
  -964
  -1,181
  -1,426
  -1,698
  -2,000
  -2,329
  -2,685
  -3,069
  -3,479
  -3,914
  -4,375
  -4,861
  -5,370
  -5,904
  -6,461
  -7,043
  -7,648
  -8,278
  -8,933
  -9,615
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -113
  -125
  -138
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -213
  -229
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -34
  -45
  -58
  -73
  -89
  -107
  -126
  -147
  -168
  -189
  -211
  -232
  -254
  -275
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -354
  -373
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -446
  -464
  -483
  -502
  -522
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -49
  -63
  -80
  -98
  -119
  -142
  -167
  -193
  -220
  -248
  -276
  -306
  -335
  -364
  -394
  -425
  -455
  -486
  -516
  -547
  -580
  -612
  -645
  -679
  -715
  -751
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -82
  -121
  -174
  -243
  -331
  -440
  -573
  -732
  -918
  -1,131
  -1,374
  -1,645
  -1,946
  -2,276
  -2,634
  -3,020
  -3,434
  -3,873
  -4,339
  -4,830
  -5,346
  -5,886
  -6,451
  -7,040
  -7,654
  -8,293
  -8,958
  -9,648
  -10,366
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  32
  39
  47
  55
  64
  73
  82
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  186
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  67
  101
  148
  210
  291
  393
  518
  669
  847
  1,053
  1,289
  1,554
  1,848
  2,172
  2,525
  2,906
  3,315
  3,750
  4,211
  4,698
  5,209
  5,745
  6,305
  6,890
  7,499
  8,132
  8,791
  9,475
  10,187
  10,925
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  109
  159
  225
  311
  418
  550
  708
  894
  1,108
  1,353
  1,627
  1,930
  2,264
  2,626
  3,016
  3,434
  3,878
  4,348
  4,844
  5,363
  5,907
  6,475
  7,068
  7,685
  8,326
  8,993
  9,685
  10,405
  11,152
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  27
  38
  51
  68
  87
  109
  134
  161
  191
  221
  253
  285
  318
  350
  382
  414
  445
  475
  504
  533
  561
  589
  617
  644
  672
  700
  728
  757
  787
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -101
  -148
  -210
  -291
  -393
  -518
  -669
  -847
  -1,053
  -1,289
  -1,554
  -1,848
  -2,172
  -2,525
  -2,906
  -3,315
  -3,750
  -4,211
  -4,698
  -5,209
  -5,745
  -6,305
  -6,890
  -7,499
  -8,132
  -8,791
  -9,475
  -10,187
  -10,925
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  84
  -74
  -110
  -159
  -223
  -306
  -409
  -535
  -685
  -863
  -1,067
  -1,301
  -1,563
  -1,855
  -2,175
  -2,524
  -2,901
  -3,305
  -3,736
  -4,193
  -4,676
  -5,184
  -5,716
  -6,273
  -6,855
  -7,461
  -8,091
  -8,748
  -9,430
  -10,139
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  81
  -68
  -96
  -131
  -173
  -222
  -276
  -334
  -394
  -452
  -507
  -555
  -594
  -623
  -639
  -641
  -631
  -609
  -575
  -533
  -484
  -430
  -375
  -320
  -267
  -218
  -174
  -135
  -103
  -76
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  42.4
  18.9
  8.6
  4.1
  2.0
  1.0
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Abeona Therapeutics Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel gene therapies for life-threatening rare genetic diseases. The Company’s lead programs include ABO-102 (AAV-SGSH), an adeno-associated virus (AAV) based gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome type A (MPS IIIA) and EB-101 (gene-corrected skin grafts) for recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB). It is also developing ABO-101 (AAV-NAGLU) for Sanfilippo syndrome type B (MPS IIIB), ABO-201 (AAV-CLN3) gene therapy for juvenile Batten disease (JNCL), ABO-202 (AAV-CLN1) for treatment of infantile Batten disease (INCL), EB-201 for epidermolysis bullosa, ABO-301 (AAV-FANCC) for Fanconi anemia disorder and ABO-302 using a novel CRISPR/Cas9-based gene editing approach to gene therapy for rare blood diseases. The Company also has a plasma-based protein therapy pipeline, including alpha-1 protease inhibitor (SDF Alpha) for inherited COPD, using its proprietary Salt Diafiltration ethanol-free process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abeona Therapeutics Inc. (ABEO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.5
Price to Sales 186
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -23%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -118%
Return On Total Capital -26.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 157.5%
Return On Equity -26.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 157.5%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin -2100%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2066.7%
Operating Margin -2400%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1533.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -2200%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2133.3%
Net Profit Margin -2200%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2133.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ABEO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABEO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abeona Therapeutics Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Abeona Therapeutics Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABEO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ABEO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abeona Therapeutics Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abeona Therapeutics Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABEO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 2800%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABEO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Abeona Therapeutics Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abeona Therapeutics Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABEO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABEO are equal to 2037.1%.

Life of production assets of 53.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abeona Therapeutics Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABEO is equal to -276.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $170.098 million for Abeona Therapeutics Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.944 million for Abeona Therapeutics Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abeona Therapeutics Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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