Intrinsic value of Asbury Automotive Group - ABG

Previous Close

$69.35

  Intrinsic Value

$58.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$69.35

 
Intrinsic value

$58.40

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,586
  6,738
  6,911
  7,105
  7,321
  7,557
  7,814
  8,093
  8,393
  8,715
  9,060
  9,427
  9,819
  10,235
  10,676
  11,144
  11,640
  12,163
  12,717
  13,301
  13,918
  14,568
  15,253
  15,975
  16,736
  17,537
  18,379
  19,266
  20,199
  21,181
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,000
  6,137
  6,294
  6,471
  6,666
  6,881
  7,114
  7,367
  7,640
  7,932
  8,224
  8,558
  8,913
  9,291
  9,692
  10,116
  10,566
  11,041
  11,544
  12,074
  12,634
  13,224
  13,846
  14,502
  15,192
  15,919
  16,684
  17,489
  18,336
  19,227
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  299
  306
  313
  320
  327
  334
  341
  349
  356
  364
  372
  380
  389
  397
  406
  415
  424
  433
  443
  453
  463
  473
  483
  494
  505
  516
  527
  539
  551
  563
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,299
  6,443
  6,607
  6,791
  6,993
  7,215
  7,455
  7,716
  7,996
  8,296
  8,596
  8,938
  9,302
  9,688
  10,098
  10,531
  10,990
  11,474
  11,987
  12,527
  13,097
  13,697
  14,329
  14,996
  15,697
  16,435
  17,211
  18,028
  18,887
  19,790
Operating income, $m
  287
  295
  304
  315
  328
  342
  359
  377
  397
  419
  464
  489
  517
  547
  579
  613
  650
  689
  730
  774
  821
  871
  924
  980
  1,039
  1,102
  1,168
  1,238
  1,313
  1,391
EBITDA, $m
  412
  422
  434
  448
  464
  483
  503
  526
  550
  577
  607
  638
  672
  709
  748
  789
  834
  881
  931
  984
  1,041
  1,101
  1,165
  1,232
  1,304
  1,379
  1,459
  1,543
  1,632
  1,726
Interest expense (income), $m
  74
  87
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
Earnings before tax, $m
  200
  206
  212
  221
  230
  241
  254
  268
  283
  300
  340
  360
  381
  405
  430
  457
  486
  517
  550
  585
  622
  662
  704
  749
  796
  846
  900
  956
  1,016
  1,079
Tax expense, $m
  54
  56
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  215
  228
  243
  258
  274
  291
Net income, $m
  146
  150
  155
  161
  168
  176
  185
  195
  207
  219
  248
  263
  278
  296
  314
  334
  355
  377
  401
  427
  454
  483
  514
  546
  581
  618
  657
  698
  741
  787

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,404
  2,459
  2,522
  2,593
  2,672
  2,758
  2,852
  2,954
  3,063
  3,181
  3,306
  3,441
  3,584
  3,735
  3,897
  4,067
  4,248
  4,439
  4,641
  4,854
  5,079
  5,317
  5,567
  5,830
  6,108
  6,400
  6,708
  7,031
  7,372
  7,730
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,404
  2,459
  2,522
  2,593
  2,672
  2,758
  2,852
  2,954
  3,063
  3,181
  3,306
  3,441
  3,584
  3,735
  3,897
  4,067
  4,248
  4,439
  4,641
  4,854
  5,079
  5,317
  5,567
  5,830
  6,108
  6,400
  6,708
  7,031
  7,372
  7,730
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
  2.740
Average production assets, $m
  1,041
  1,065
  1,092
  1,123
  1,157
  1,194
  1,235
  1,279
  1,326
  1,377
  1,431
  1,490
  1,551
  1,617
  1,687
  1,761
  1,839
  1,922
  2,009
  2,102
  2,199
  2,302
  2,410
  2,524
  2,644
  2,771
  2,904
  3,044
  3,191
  3,347
Working capital, $m
  520
  532
  546
  561
  578
  597
  617
  639
  663
  688
  716
  745
  776
  809
  843
  880
  920
  961
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,385
  1,452
  1,522
  1,596
  1,673
Total debt, $m
  1,647
  1,693
  1,746
  1,805
  1,870
  1,942
  2,021
  2,105
  2,197
  2,294
  2,399
  2,511
  2,630
  2,756
  2,891
  3,033
  3,184
  3,343
  3,511
  3,689
  3,876
  4,074
  4,282
  4,502
  4,733
  4,976
  5,232
  5,502
  5,786
  6,084
Total liabilities, $m
  2,002
  2,048
  2,101
  2,160
  2,226
  2,297
  2,376
  2,460
  2,552
  2,650
  2,754
  2,866
  2,985
  3,112
  3,246
  3,388
  3,539
  3,698
  3,866
  4,044
  4,231
  4,429
  4,637
  4,857
  5,088
  5,331
  5,588
  5,857
  6,141
  6,439
Total equity, $m
  401
  411
  421
  433
  446
  461
  476
  493
  512
  531
  552
  575
  598
  624
  651
  679
  709
  741
  775
  811
  848
  888
  930
  974
  1,020
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
  1,291
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,403
  2,459
  2,522
  2,593
  2,672
  2,758
  2,852
  2,953
  3,064
  3,181
  3,306
  3,441
  3,583
  3,736
  3,897
  4,067
  4,248
  4,439
  4,641
  4,855
  5,079
  5,317
  5,567
  5,831
  6,108
  6,400
  6,708
  7,031
  7,372
  7,730
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.100
  4.120
  4.140
  4.170
  4.190
  4.220
  4.240
  4.270
  4.290
  4.320
  4.340
  4.370
  4.390
  4.420
  4.440
  4.470
  4.490
  4.510
  4.530
  4.550
  4.570
  4.590
  4.610
  4.620
  4.640
  4.660
  4.670
  4.690
  4.700
  4.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  146
  150
  155
  161
  168
  176
  185
  195
  207
  219
  248
  263
  278
  296
  314
  334
  355
  377
  401
  427
  454
  483
  514
  546
  581
  618
  657
  698
  741
  787
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  127
  130
  133
  137
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Funds from operations, $m
  271
  278
  285
  294
  305
  317
  330
  344
  360
  378
  391
  412
  434
  457
  483
  510
  539
  569
  602
  637
  674
  713
  755
  799
  846
  895
  947
  1,002
  1,061
  1,122
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
Cash from operations, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  288
  298
  309
  322
  337
  352
  364
  382
  403
  424
  448
  473
  499
  528
  558
  591
  625
  662
  701
  742
  785
  832
  880
  932
  987
  1,045
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -267
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -323
  -338
  -355
  -372
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -474
Free cash flow, $m
  137
  138
  138
  139
  141
  145
  149
  155
  161
  169
  172
  181
  192
  203
  216
  230
  245
  261
  279
  298
  318
  339
  362
  387
  413
  441
  470
  502
  535
  570
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  40
  46
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  159
  168
  178
  187
  198
  208
  220
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  298
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  40
  46
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  159
  168
  178
  187
  198
  208
  220
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  177
  184
  190
  198
  207
  217
  228
  240
  253
  267
  276
  293
  311
  330
  350
  372
  396
  421
  447
  475
  505
  537
  571
  606
  644
  684
  726
  771
  819
  869
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
Cash available for distribution, $m
  169
  174
  180
  186
  194
  202
  212
  223
  234
  247
  255
  271
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
  389
  413
  440
  468
  497
  529
  562
  598
  635
  675
  717
  762
  809
Discount rate, %
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  153
  141
  129
  118
  106
  95
  84
  74
  64
  55
  45
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. is an automotive retailer in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated 93 new vehicle franchises, representing 28 brands of automobiles at 77 dealership locations, and 23 collision centers in the United States. In addition, as of December 31, 2016, it owned and operated two standalone used vehicle stores in Florida. Its stores offer automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; parts and service, including vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts, and collision repair services; and finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection (GAP) insurance, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. Its new vehicle revenues include new vehicle sales and lease transactions arranged by dealerships with third-party financial institutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 325.7%
Total Debt to Equity 638.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 56.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.5%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ABG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6457 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Asbury Automotive Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Asbury Automotive Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for ABG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Asbury Automotive Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Asbury Automotive Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $293 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Asbury Automotive Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Asbury Automotive Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABG stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABG are equal to 15.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Asbury Automotive Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABG is equal to 7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $394 million for Asbury Automotive Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21 million for Asbury Automotive Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Asbury Automotive Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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