Intrinsic value of Abiomed - ABMD

Previous Close

$371.25

  Intrinsic Value

$74.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$371.25

 
Intrinsic value

$74.08

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.10
  32.09
  29.38
  26.94
  24.75
  22.77
  21.00
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
Revenue, $m
  601
  794
  1,027
  1,304
  1,627
  1,998
  2,417
  2,886
  3,404
  3,971
  4,587
  5,249
  5,958
  6,712
  7,509
  8,350
  9,233
  10,158
  11,125
  12,134
  13,185
  14,278
  15,415
  16,597
  17,826
  19,102
  20,429
  21,808
  23,242
  24,733
Variable operating expenses, $m
  470
  620
  801
  1,017
  1,267
  1,555
  1,881
  2,245
  2,648
  3,089
  3,564
  4,079
  4,629
  5,215
  5,835
  6,488
  7,175
  7,893
  8,645
  9,428
  10,245
  11,095
  11,978
  12,897
  13,851
  14,843
  15,874
  16,945
  18,060
  19,219
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
Total operating expenses, $m
  476
  626
  807
  1,024
  1,274
  1,562
  1,888
  2,252
  2,655
  3,096
  3,572
  4,087
  4,637
  5,223
  5,843
  6,496
  7,184
  7,902
  8,654
  9,437
  10,254
  11,105
  11,988
  12,907
  13,861
  14,854
  15,885
  16,956
  18,071
  19,231
Operating income, $m
  125
  168
  220
  281
  353
  435
  529
  633
  749
  875
  1,015
  1,163
  1,320
  1,488
  1,666
  1,853
  2,050
  2,256
  2,472
  2,696
  2,930
  3,174
  3,427
  3,691
  3,964
  4,249
  4,544
  4,851
  5,171
  5,503
EBITDA, $m
  140
  186
  243
  310
  388
  478
  580
  693
  819
  956
  1,105
  1,266
  1,438
  1,621
  1,814
  2,018
  2,232
  2,456
  2,691
  2,935
  3,190
  3,455
  3,731
  4,017
  4,315
  4,625
  4,947
  5,281
  5,629
  5,990
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  3
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  206
  221
  237
  253
  270
Earnings before tax, $m
  124
  165
  215
  273
  342
  421
  510
  609
  719
  839
  973
  1,113
  1,263
  1,422
  1,591
  1,769
  1,956
  2,151
  2,356
  2,569
  2,791
  3,022
  3,263
  3,513
  3,772
  4,042
  4,323
  4,614
  4,917
  5,233
Tax expense, $m
  33
  45
  58
  74
  92
  114
  138
  164
  194
  227
  263
  300
  341
  384
  430
  478
  528
  581
  636
  694
  754
  816
  881
  948
  1,019
  1,091
  1,167
  1,246
  1,328
  1,413
Net income, $m
  91
  120
  157
  200
  250
  307
  372
  445
  525
  613
  710
  812
  922
  1,038
  1,161
  1,291
  1,428
  1,571
  1,720
  1,875
  2,038
  2,206
  2,382
  2,564
  2,754
  2,951
  3,156
  3,368
  3,590
  3,820

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  526
  695
  900
  1,142
  1,425
  1,749
  2,116
  2,527
  2,981
  3,477
  4,016
  4,596
  5,217
  5,877
  6,576
  7,312
  8,085
  8,895
  9,742
  10,625
  11,545
  12,503
  13,499
  14,534
  15,609
  16,727
  17,889
  19,096
  20,352
  21,658
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  526
  695
  900
  1,142
  1,425
  1,749
  2,116
  2,527
  2,981
  3,477
  4,016
  4,596
  5,217
  5,877
  6,576
  7,312
  8,085
  8,895
  9,742
  10,625
  11,545
  12,503
  13,499
  14,534
  15,609
  16,727
  17,889
  19,096
  20,352
  21,658
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.143
  1.142
  1.141
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
  1.142
Average production assets, $m
  118
  156
  202
  257
  321
  394
  476
  569
  671
  782
  904
  1,034
  1,174
  1,322
  1,479
  1,645
  1,819
  2,001
  2,192
  2,390
  2,597
  2,813
  3,037
  3,270
  3,512
  3,763
  4,024
  4,296
  4,579
  4,872
Working capital, $m
  19
  25
  33
  42
  52
  64
  77
  92
  109
  127
  147
  168
  191
  215
  240
  267
  295
  325
  356
  388
  422
  457
  493
  531
  570
  611
  654
  698
  744
  791
Total debt, $m
  50
  92
  143
  203
  274
  355
  447
  550
  663
  787
  922
  1,067
  1,222
  1,387
  1,562
  1,746
  1,939
  2,142
  2,353
  2,574
  2,804
  3,044
  3,293
  3,551
  3,820
  4,100
  4,390
  4,692
  5,006
  5,332
Total liabilities, $m
  132
  174
  225
  286
  356
  437
  529
  632
  745
  869
  1,004
  1,149
  1,304
  1,469
  1,644
  1,828
  2,021
  2,224
  2,435
  2,656
  2,886
  3,126
  3,375
  3,633
  3,902
  4,182
  4,472
  4,774
  5,088
  5,414
Total equity, $m
  395
  522
  675
  857
  1,069
  1,312
  1,587
  1,895
  2,236
  2,608
  3,012
  3,447
  3,913
  4,408
  4,932
  5,484
  6,064
  6,671
  7,306
  7,969
  8,659
  9,377
  10,124
  10,900
  11,707
  12,545
  13,416
  14,322
  15,264
  16,243
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  527
  696
  900
  1,143
  1,425
  1,749
  2,116
  2,527
  2,981
  3,477
  4,016
  4,596
  5,217
  5,877
  6,576
  7,312
  8,085
  8,895
  9,741
  10,625
  11,545
  12,503
  13,499
  14,533
  15,609
  16,727
  17,888
  19,096
  20,352
  21,657
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.180
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  120
  157
  200
  250
  307
  372
  445
  525
  613
  710
  812
  922
  1,038
  1,161
  1,291
  1,428
  1,571
  1,720
  1,875
  2,038
  2,206
  2,382
  2,564
  2,754
  2,951
  3,156
  3,368
  3,590
  3,820
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  19
  23
  29
  35
  42
  51
  60
  70
  81
  90
  103
  117
  132
  148
  164
  182
  200
  219
  239
  260
  281
  304
  327
  351
  376
  402
  430
  458
  487
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  139
  180
  228
  285
  350
  423
  505
  595
  694
  800
  916
  1,039
  1,170
  1,309
  1,456
  1,610
  1,771
  1,939
  2,114
  2,297
  2,488
  2,686
  2,891
  3,105
  3,327
  3,558
  3,798
  4,048
  4,307
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  133
  173
  220
  274
  338
  409
  490
  578
  676
  781
  895
  1,017
  1,146
  1,284
  1,429
  1,581
  1,741
  1,908
  2,082
  2,264
  2,453
  2,649
  2,853
  3,066
  3,286
  3,516
  3,754
  4,002
  4,259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -103
  -117
  -132
  -148
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -219
  -239
  -260
  -281
  -304
  -327
  -351
  -376
  -402
  -430
  -458
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -282
  -294
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -75
  -90
  -105
  -122
  -140
  -159
  -179
  -199
  -221
  -243
  -265
  -289
  -314
  -338
  -364
  -390
  -418
  -446
  -475
  -505
  -537
  -569
  -602
  -637
  -674
  -712
  -752
Free cash flow, $m
  61
  83
  111
  145
  185
  233
  287
  350
  419
  497
  581
  674
  774
  881
  995
  1,115
  1,243
  1,377
  1,517
  1,664
  1,818
  1,978
  2,144
  2,317
  2,497
  2,684
  2,878
  3,080
  3,290
  3,508
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  42
  51
  61
  71
  81
  92
  103
  113
  124
  135
  145
  155
  165
  175
  184
  193
  203
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  46
  48
  51
  61
  71
  81
  92
  103
  113
  124
  135
  145
  155
  165
  175
  184
  193
  203
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  132
  162
  205
  256
  314
  379
  452
  533
  621
  716
  819
  929
  1,046
  1,169
  1,299
  1,436
  1,579
  1,729
  1,885
  2,048
  2,217
  2,393
  2,576
  2,766
  2,963
  3,168
  3,382
  3,604
  3,834
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -127
  -153
  -182
  -212
  -243
  -275
  -308
  -340
  -372
  -404
  -435
  -465
  -495
  -524
  -552
  -580
  -608
  -635
  -662
  -690
  -718
  -747
  -776
  -807
  -838
  -871
  -906
  -942
  -980
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  160
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  21
  28
  37
  48
  61
  76
  94
  114
  136
  160
  187
  216
  247
  280
  315
  353
  392
  434
  477
  523
  570
  620
  671
  725
  780
  838
  898
  960
  1,025
  1,092
Cash available for distribution, $m
  164
  5
  9
  24
  44
  70
  104
  144
  193
  249
  312
  384
  463
  551
  645
  747
  856
  972
  1,094
  1,223
  1,358
  1,499
  1,646
  1,799
  1,959
  2,125
  2,297
  2,476
  2,662
  2,855
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  157
  5
  8
  19
  34
  51
  70
  90
  111
  130
  148
  164
  176
  185
  189
  190
  186
  179
  168
  155
  140
  124
  108
  92
  76
  62
  49
  38
  29
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.6
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4
  99.4

ABIOMED, Inc. is a provider of temporary percutaneous mechanical circulatory support devices. The Company offers care to heart failure patients. The Company operates in the segment of the research, development and sale of medical devices to assist or replace the pumping function of the failing heart. The Company develops, manufactures and markets products that are designed to enable the heart to rest, heal and recover by improving blood flow to the coronary arteries and end-organs and/or temporarily performing the pumping function of the heart. The Company's product portfolio includes the Impella 2.5, Impella CP, Impella RP, Impella LD, Impella 5.0 and AB5000. The Company's products are used in the cardiac catheterization lab (cath lab), by interventional cardiologists, the electrophysiology lab, the hybrid lab and in the heart surgery suite by heart surgeons.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abiomed (ABMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 311.8
Price to Sales 36.4
Price to Book 35.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 141
Price to Free Cash Flow 249.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 212.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 75.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 230
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.3%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.8%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ABMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $445 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abiomed. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Abiomed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ABMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abiomed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abiomed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Abiomed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abiomed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABMD stock is equal to 4.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABMD are equal to 19.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abiomed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABMD is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $452 million for Abiomed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43 million for Abiomed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abiomed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.0 billion.

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