Intrinsic value of Abiomed - ABMD

Previous Close

$330.63

  Intrinsic Value

$278.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$330.63

 
Intrinsic value

$278.50

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ABMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.90
  32.81
  30.03
  27.53
  25.27
  23.25
  21.42
  19.78
  18.30
  16.97
  15.77
  14.70
  13.73
  12.85
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.17
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  807
  1,072
  1,393
  1,777
  2,226
  2,744
  3,331
  3,990
  4,721
  5,522
  6,393
  7,332
  8,339
  9,411
  10,546
  11,745
  13,004
  14,325
  15,705
  17,146
  18,648
  20,210
  21,836
  23,526
  25,282
  27,107
  29,003
  30,975
  33,024
  35,156
Variable operating expenses, $m
  440
  583
  757
  965
  1,208
  1,488
  1,806
  2,162
  2,557
  2,991
  3,458
  3,966
  4,511
  5,091
  5,705
  6,353
  7,035
  7,749
  8,496
  9,276
  10,088
  10,933
  11,813
  12,727
  13,677
  14,664
  15,690
  16,756
  17,865
  19,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  178
  182
  186
  191
  195
  199
  203
  208
  212
  217
Total operating expenses, $m
  555
  701
  878
  1,088
  1,334
  1,617
  1,938
  2,296
  2,694
  3,131
  3,602
  4,113
  4,661
  5,244
  5,862
  6,513
  7,199
  7,916
  8,667
  9,451
  10,266
  11,115
  11,999
  12,918
  13,872
  14,863
  15,893
  16,964
  18,077
  19,235
Operating income, $m
  251
  370
  515
  689
  892
  1,127
  1,394
  1,694
  2,026
  2,391
  2,791
  3,219
  3,678
  4,167
  4,684
  5,231
  5,806
  6,408
  7,038
  7,696
  8,381
  9,095
  9,837
  10,609
  11,410
  12,244
  13,110
  14,010
  14,947
  15,921
EBITDA, $m
  268
  391
  542
  721
  932
  1,175
  1,452
  1,762
  2,107
  2,484
  2,895
  3,339
  3,814
  4,320
  4,857
  5,423
  6,018
  6,642
  7,295
  7,976
  8,686
  9,425
  10,194
  10,993
  11,824
  12,687
  13,584
  14,517
  15,486
  16,495
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  7
  10
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  87
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  172
  187
  202
  217
  233
  250
  267
  285
Earnings before tax, $m
  251
  368
  511
  682
  882
  1,113
  1,375
  1,670
  1,996
  2,354
  2,748
  3,168
  3,619
  4,098
  4,607
  5,144
  5,708
  6,299
  6,918
  7,563
  8,236
  8,936
  9,665
  10,422
  11,209
  12,027
  12,877
  13,761
  14,680
  15,636
Tax expense, $m
  68
  99
  138
  184
  238
  300
  371
  451
  539
  636
  742
  855
  977
  1,107
  1,244
  1,389
  1,541
  1,701
  1,868
  2,042
  2,224
  2,413
  2,609
  2,814
  3,026
  3,247
  3,477
  3,715
  3,964
  4,222
Net income, $m
  183
  269
  373
  498
  644
  812
  1,004
  1,219
  1,457
  1,719
  2,006
  2,313
  2,642
  2,992
  3,363
  3,755
  4,167
  4,598
  5,050
  5,521
  6,012
  6,523
  7,055
  7,608
  8,182
  8,780
  9,400
  10,045
  10,716
  11,414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  691
  918
  1,194
  1,523
  1,908
  2,351
  2,855
  3,419
  4,045
  4,732
  5,478
  6,283
  7,145
  8,064
  9,037
  10,064
  11,143
  12,275
  13,458
  14,692
  15,979
  17,318
  18,711
  20,159
  21,664
  23,228
  24,853
  26,542
  28,298
  30,125
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  691
  918
  1,194
  1,523
  1,908
  2,351
  2,855
  3,419
  4,045
  4,732
  5,478
  6,283
  7,145
  8,064
  9,037
  10,064
  11,143
  12,275
  13,458
  14,692
  15,979
  17,318
  18,711
  20,159
  21,664
  23,228
  24,853
  26,542
  28,298
  30,125
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.168
  1.168
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
Average production assets, $m
  162
  215
  280
  357
  447
  551
  670
  802
  949
  1,110
  1,285
  1,474
  1,676
  1,892
  2,120
  2,361
  2,614
  2,879
  3,157
  3,446
  3,748
  4,062
  4,389
  4,729
  5,082
  5,448
  5,830
  6,226
  6,638
  7,066
Working capital, $m
  65
  86
  111
  142
  178
  219
  267
  319
  378
  442
  511
  587
  667
  753
  844
  940
  1,040
  1,146
  1,256
  1,372
  1,492
  1,617
  1,747
  1,882
  2,023
  2,169
  2,320
  2,478
  2,642
  2,812
Total debt, $m
  35
  78
  130
  192
  266
  350
  446
  553
  672
  802
  944
  1,097
  1,261
  1,435
  1,620
  1,815
  2,020
  2,235
  2,460
  2,695
  2,939
  3,194
  3,458
  3,733
  4,019
  4,316
  4,625
  4,946
  5,280
  5,627
Total liabilities, $m
  131
  174
  227
  289
  362
  447
  542
  650
  769
  899
  1,041
  1,194
  1,358
  1,532
  1,717
  1,912
  2,117
  2,332
  2,557
  2,792
  3,036
  3,290
  3,555
  3,830
  4,116
  4,413
  4,722
  5,043
  5,377
  5,724
Total equity, $m
  560
  744
  967
  1,233
  1,545
  1,904
  2,312
  2,770
  3,276
  3,833
  4,437
  5,089
  5,788
  6,532
  7,320
  8,152
  9,026
  9,943
  10,901
  11,901
  12,943
  14,028
  15,156
  16,329
  17,548
  18,815
  20,131
  21,499
  22,922
  24,401
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  691
  918
  1,194
  1,522
  1,907
  2,351
  2,854
  3,420
  4,045
  4,732
  5,478
  6,283
  7,146
  8,064
  9,037
  10,064
  11,143
  12,275
  13,458
  14,693
  15,979
  17,318
  18,711
  20,159
  21,664
  23,228
  24,853
  26,542
  28,299
  30,125
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  183
  269
  373
  498
  644
  812
  1,004
  1,219
  1,457
  1,719
  2,006
  2,313
  2,642
  2,992
  3,363
  3,755
  4,167
  4,598
  5,050
  5,521
  6,012
  6,523
  7,055
  7,608
  8,182
  8,780
  9,400
  10,045
  10,716
  11,414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  21
  26
  33
  40
  48
  58
  69
  81
  94
  104
  120
  136
  154
  172
  192
  213
  234
  257
  280
  305
  330
  357
  384
  413
  443
  474
  506
  540
  575
Funds from operations, $m
  200
  290
  400
  530
  684
  861
  1,062
  1,288
  1,538
  1,812
  2,110
  2,432
  2,778
  3,146
  3,535
  3,947
  4,379
  4,832
  5,307
  5,801
  6,317
  6,854
  7,412
  7,992
  8,596
  9,223
  9,874
  10,552
  11,256
  11,988
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
Cash from operations, $m
  183
  269
  374
  500
  648
  819
  1,015
  1,235
  1,479
  1,748
  2,041
  2,357
  2,697
  3,060
  3,445
  3,851
  4,278
  4,727
  5,196
  5,686
  6,197
  6,729
  7,282
  7,857
  8,455
  9,077
  9,722
  10,394
  11,092
  11,818
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -54
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -120
  -136
  -154
  -172
  -192
  -213
  -234
  -257
  -280
  -305
  -330
  -357
  -384
  -413
  -443
  -474
  -506
  -540
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -53
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -118
  -132
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -381
  -396
  -412
  -429
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -66
  -83
  -100
  -119
  -140
  -163
  -186
  -212
  -238
  -265
  -293
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -413
  -445
  -478
  -512
  -547
  -582
  -619
  -657
  -697
  -737
  -780
  -824
  -870
  -918
  -969
Free cash flow, $m
  130
  202
  292
  400
  529
  679
  852
  1,048
  1,267
  1,510
  1,775
  2,064
  2,375
  2,708
  3,063
  3,438
  3,833
  4,249
  4,684
  5,140
  5,615
  6,110
  6,625
  7,161
  7,718
  8,297
  8,898
  9,524
  10,174
  10,850
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  107
  119
  130
  142
  153
  164
  175
  185
  195
  205
  215
  225
  235
  244
  254
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  107
  119
  130
  142
  153
  164
  175
  185
  195
  205
  215
  225
  235
  244
  254
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  165
  246
  344
  462
  602
  763
  948
  1,155
  1,386
  1,641
  1,917
  2,217
  2,539
  2,883
  3,247
  3,633
  4,038
  4,464
  4,909
  5,374
  5,859
  6,364
  6,890
  7,436
  8,004
  8,594
  9,207
  9,845
  10,507
  11,197
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -148
  -184
  -223
  -266
  -312
  -359
  -408
  -457
  -507
  -556
  -605
  -652
  -699
  -744
  -788
  -832
  -874
  -916
  -958
  -1,000
  -1,042
  -1,085
  -1,128
  -1,173
  -1,219
  -1,267
  -1,316
  -1,368
  -1,423
  -1,480
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  278
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  294
  62
  121
  196
  290
  404
  540
  698
  879
  1,085
  1,312
  1,565
  1,840
  2,139
  2,459
  2,801
  3,164
  3,547
  3,951
  4,374
  4,817
  5,279
  5,761
  6,263
  6,785
  7,327
  7,891
  8,476
  9,085
  9,717
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  282
  57
  105
  161
  225
  293
  365
  436
  505
  569
  623
  668
  700
  718
  722
  712
  688
  653
  608
  556
  498
  438
  378
  319
  264
  214
  169
  131
  99
  73
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ABIOMED, Inc. is a provider of temporary percutaneous mechanical circulatory support devices. The Company offers care to heart failure patients. The Company operates in the segment of the research, development and sale of medical devices to assist or replace the pumping function of the failing heart. The Company develops, manufactures and markets products that are designed to enable the heart to rest, heal and recover by improving blood flow to the coronary arteries and end-organs and/or temporarily performing the pumping function of the heart. The Company's product portfolio includes the Impella 2.5, Impella CP, Impella RP, Impella LD, Impella 5.0 and AB5000. The Company's products are used in the cardiac catheterization lab (cath lab), by interventional cardiologists, the electrophysiology lab, the hybrid lab and in the heart surgery suite by heart surgeons.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abiomed (ABMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 277.7
Price to Sales 32.4
Price to Book 31.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 125.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 222.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 212.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 75.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 230
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.3%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.8%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ABMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ABMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $593.749 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abiomed. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Abiomed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ABMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ABMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abiomed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abiomed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ABMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ABMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Abiomed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abiomed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ABMD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ABMD are equal to 20.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abiomed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ABMD is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $689.524 million for Abiomed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.478 million for Abiomed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abiomed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.7 billion.

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