Intrinsic value of American Campus Communities - ACC

Previous Close

$42.05

  Intrinsic Value

$56.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+34%

Previous close

$42.05

 
Intrinsic value

$56.36

 
Up/down potential

+34%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ACC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  812
  831
  852
  876
  902
  932
  963
  998
  1,035
  1,074
  1,117
  1,162
  1,210
  1,262
  1,316
  1,374
  1,435
  1,499
  1,568
  1,640
  1,716
  1,796
  1,880
  1,969
  2,063
  2,162
  2,266
  2,375
  2,490
  2,611
Variable operating expenses, $m
  633
  648
  664
  683
  703
  726
  750
  777
  805
  836
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,062
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,523
  1,595
  1,672
  1,752
  1,836
  1,925
  2,019
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  633
  648
  664
  683
  703
  726
  750
  777
  805
  836
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,062
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,523
  1,595
  1,672
  1,752
  1,836
  1,925
  2,019
Operating income, $m
  179
  183
  188
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  253
  264
  275
  286
  298
  312
  325
  340
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  447
  468
  490
  514
  539
  565
  592
EBITDA, $m
  841
  861
  883
  908
  935
  965
  998
  1,034
  1,072
  1,113
  1,157
  1,204
  1,254
  1,307
  1,364
  1,424
  1,487
  1,554
  1,624
  1,699
  1,778
  1,861
  1,948
  2,041
  2,138
  2,240
  2,348
  2,461
  2,580
  2,706
Interest expense (income), $m
  93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  179
  183
  188
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  468
  490
  513
  538
  564
  592
Tax expense, $m
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  60
  62
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
Net income, $m
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -854
  -873
  -896
  -921
  -949
  -980
  -1,013
  -1,049
  -1,088
  -1,130
  -1,174
  -1,222
  -1,273
  -1,327
  -1,384
  -1,445
  -1,509
  -1,577
  -1,648
  -1,724
  -1,804
  -1,888
  -1,977
  -2,071
  -2,169
  -2,273
  -2,382
  -2,497
  -2,618
  -2,746
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -854
  -873
  -896
  -921
  -949
  -980
  -1,013
  -1,049
  -1,088
  -1,130
  -1,174
  -1,222
  -1,273
  -1,327
  -1,384
  -1,445
  -1,509
  -1,577
  -1,648
  -1,724
  -1,804
  -1,888
  -1,977
  -2,071
  -2,169
  -2,273
  -2,382
  -2,497
  -2,618
  -2,746
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.951
  -0.952
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.950
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.950
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
  -0.951
Average production assets, $m
  6,572
  6,723
  6,896
  7,090
  7,305
  7,540
  7,797
  8,075
  8,375
  8,696
  9,040
  9,407
  9,797
  10,213
  10,653
  11,120
  11,614
  12,137
  12,689
  13,272
  13,887
  14,536
  15,220
  15,940
  16,699
  17,498
  18,339
  19,224
  20,155
  21,134
Working capital, $m
  -3,330
  -3,406
  -3,494
  -3,592
  -3,701
  -3,820
  -3,951
  -4,091
  -4,243
  -4,406
  -4,580
  -4,766
  -4,964
  -5,174
  -5,398
  -5,634
  -5,885
  -6,149
  -6,429
  -6,724
  -7,036
  -7,365
  -7,711
  -8,076
  -8,461
  -8,866
  -9,292
  -9,740
  -10,212
  -10,708
Total debt, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total equity, $m
  -856
  -876
  -899
  -924
  -952
  -983
  -1,016
  -1,052
  -1,091
  -1,133
  -1,178
  -1,226
  -1,277
  -1,331
  -1,388
  -1,449
  -1,513
  -1,581
  -1,653
  -1,729
  -1,810
  -1,894
  -1,983
  -2,077
  -2,176
  -2,280
  -2,390
  -2,505
  -2,626
  -2,754
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -853
  -873
  -896
  -921
  -949
  -980
  -1,013
  -1,049
  -1,088
  -1,130
  -1,174
  -1,222
  -1,273
  -1,327
  -1,384
  -1,445
  -1,508
  -1,576
  -1,648
  -1,724
  -1,805
  -1,888
  -1,977
  -2,071
  -2,169
  -2,273
  -2,383
  -2,498
  -2,618
  -2,746
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  663
  678
  695
  714
  736
  759
  785
  813
  843
  875
  904
  941
  980
  1,021
  1,065
  1,112
  1,161
  1,214
  1,269
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,522
  1,594
  1,670
  1,750
  1,834
  1,922
  2,015
  2,113
Funds from operations, $m
  793
  811
  832
  855
  881
  910
  941
  974
  1,010
  1,049
  1,089
  1,133
  1,180
  1,230
  1,283
  1,339
  1,399
  1,462
  1,528
  1,598
  1,673
  1,751
  1,833
  1,920
  2,011
  2,107
  2,209
  2,315
  2,427
  2,545
Change in working capital, $m
  -65
  -77
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -152
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -250
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -472
  -496
Cash from operations, $m
  858
  888
  919
  954
  990
  1,029
  1,071
  1,115
  1,162
  1,212
  1,263
  1,319
  1,378
  1,440
  1,506
  1,576
  1,649
  1,727
  1,808
  1,894
  1,984
  2,079
  2,180
  2,285
  2,396
  2,512
  2,635
  2,764
  2,899
  3,042
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -645
  -657
  -672
  -690
  -709
  -730
  -754
  -780
  -808
  -837
  -870
  -904
  -941
  -980
  -1,021
  -1,065
  -1,112
  -1,161
  -1,214
  -1,269
  -1,327
  -1,389
  -1,454
  -1,522
  -1,594
  -1,670
  -1,750
  -1,834
  -1,922
  -2,015
New CAPEX, $m
  -125
  -151
  -173
  -194
  -215
  -236
  -257
  -278
  -299
  -321
  -344
  -367
  -391
  -415
  -441
  -467
  -494
  -523
  -552
  -583
  -615
  -649
  -684
  -721
  -759
  -799
  -841
  -885
  -931
  -979
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -770
  -808
  -845
  -884
  -924
  -966
  -1,011
  -1,058
  -1,107
  -1,158
  -1,214
  -1,271
  -1,332
  -1,395
  -1,462
  -1,532
  -1,606
  -1,684
  -1,766
  -1,852
  -1,942
  -2,038
  -2,138
  -2,243
  -2,353
  -2,469
  -2,591
  -2,719
  -2,853
  -2,994
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  79
  74
  70
  66
  63
  60
  57
  55
  53
  50
  48
  47
  45
  44
  44
  43
  43
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  60
  52
  45
  38
  32
  26
  21
  16
  11
  5
  0
  -4
  -8
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  840
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  929
  79
  75
  70
  66
  63
  60
  57
  55
  53
  50
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  929
  79
  75
  70
  66
  63
  60
  57
  55
  53
  50
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

American Campus Communities, Inc. is a self-managed and self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's segments include Wholly-Owned Properties, On-Campus Participating Properties, Development Services, and Property Management Services. It is engaged in the acquisition, design, financing, development, construction management, leasing and management of student housing properties. The Wholly-Owned Properties segment consists of off-campus properties, which are located in close proximity to the school campus. The On-Campus Participating Properties segment includes on-campus properties that are operated under long-term ground/facility leases with three university systems. The Development Services segment consists of development and construction management services that it provides through one of its taxable REIT subsidiaries for third-party owners. The Property Management Services segment includes revenues generated from third-party management contracts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Campus Communities (ACC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 56.2
Price to Sales 7.1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 61.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 51.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.7%
Operating Margin 20.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 221.2%

ACC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $796 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Campus Communities. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of American Campus Communities. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for ACC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Campus Communities, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Campus Communities.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for American Campus Communities.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Campus Communities. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACC stock is equal to 1.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACC are equal to 809.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Campus Communities operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACC is equal to -410.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for American Campus Communities - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 135 million for American Campus Communities is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Campus Communities at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ American Campus Communities: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-23-18 04:33PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Company News For Feb 21, 2018   [09:13AM  Zacks]
▶ American Campus Communities reports 4Q results   [Feb-20-18 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-23-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
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▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-01-17 05:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ American Campus Communities reports 3Q results   [Oct-23-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why American Campus Communities Inc (ACC) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-22-17 05:41PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ American Campus Communities Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-02-17 07:03PM  Business Wire]
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