Intrinsic value of ACCO Brands - ACCO

Previous Close

$12.70

  Intrinsic Value

$16.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+32%

Previous close

$12.70

 
Intrinsic value

$16.81

 
Up/down potential

+32%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.11
  23.40
  21.56
  19.90
  18.41
  17.07
  15.87
  14.78
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  1,557
  1,921
  2,336
  2,800
  3,316
  3,882
  4,498
  5,163
  5,875
  6,635
  7,439
  8,289
  9,182
  10,118
  11,097
  12,119
  13,184
  14,293
  15,446
  16,645
  17,891
  19,185
  20,531
  21,929
  23,383
  24,896
  26,469
  28,108
  29,814
  31,592
  33,445
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,700
  2,054
  2,451
  2,892
  3,375
  3,901
  4,469
  5,078
  5,727
  6,414
  7,081
  7,844
  8,644
  9,480
  10,353
  11,263
  12,210
  13,195
  14,219
  15,284
  16,390
  17,539
  18,734
  19,976
  21,268
  22,613
  24,012
  25,470
  26,989
  28,572
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,390
  1,700
  2,054
  2,451
  2,892
  3,375
  3,901
  4,469
  5,078
  5,727
  6,414
  7,081
  7,844
  8,644
  9,480
  10,353
  11,263
  12,210
  13,195
  14,219
  15,284
  16,390
  17,539
  18,734
  19,976
  21,268
  22,613
  24,012
  25,470
  26,989
  28,572
Operating income, $m
  167
  221
  282
  349
  424
  507
  597
  694
  797
  908
  1,025
  1,208
  1,338
  1,474
  1,617
  1,766
  1,921
  2,082
  2,250
  2,425
  2,607
  2,795
  2,991
  3,195
  3,407
  3,627
  3,857
  4,095
  4,344
  4,603
  4,873
EBITDA, $m
  219
  317
  386
  462
  547
  641
  742
  852
  970
  1,095
  1,228
  1,368
  1,515
  1,670
  1,832
  2,000
  2,176
  2,359
  2,549
  2,747
  2,953
  3,167
  3,389
  3,620
  3,860
  4,109
  4,369
  4,639
  4,921
  5,214
  5,520
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  46
  68
  93
  121
  152
  185
  222
  262
  305
  350
  398
  449
  503
  559
  617
  678
  742
  808
  877
  949
  1,024
  1,101
  1,182
  1,265
  1,352
  1,443
  1,537
  1,635
  1,737
  1,844
Earnings before tax, $m
  125
  175
  213
  256
  304
  355
  411
  471
  535
  603
  675
  809
  889
  972
  1,058
  1,149
  1,243
  1,340
  1,442
  1,548
  1,657
  1,772
  1,890
  2,013
  2,142
  2,275
  2,414
  2,558
  2,709
  2,866
  3,029
Tax expense, $m
  29
  47
  58
  69
  82
  96
  111
  127
  145
  163
  182
  219
  240
  262
  286
  310
  335
  362
  389
  418
  448
  478
  510
  544
  578
  614
  652
  691
  731
  774
  818
Net income, $m
  96
  128
  156
  187
  222
  259
  300
  344
  391
  440
  493
  591
  649
  709
  772
  838
  907
  978
  1,053
  1,130
  1,210
  1,293
  1,380
  1,470
  1,563
  1,661
  1,762
  1,867
  1,977
  2,092
  2,211

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,065
  2,495
  3,033
  3,637
  4,307
  5,042
  5,842
  6,705
  7,630
  8,616
  9,661
  10,764
  11,924
  13,140
  14,411
  15,739
  17,122
  18,562
  20,059
  21,616
  23,234
  24,916
  26,663
  28,480
  30,368
  32,332
  34,376
  36,503
  38,719
  41,028
  43,435
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,022
  2,495
  3,033
  3,637
  4,307
  5,042
  5,842
  6,705
  7,630
  8,616
  9,661
  10,764
  11,924
  13,140
  14,411
  15,739
  17,122
  18,562
  20,059
  21,616
  23,234
  24,916
  26,663
  28,480
  30,368
  32,332
  34,376
  36,503
  38,719
  41,028
  43,435
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
Average production assets, $m
  747
  922
  1,121
  1,344
  1,592
  1,863
  2,159
  2,478
  2,820
  3,185
  3,571
  3,978
  4,407
  4,857
  5,326
  5,817
  6,328
  6,860
  7,414
  7,989
  8,587
  9,209
  9,855
  10,526
  11,224
  11,950
  12,705
  13,492
  14,311
  15,164
  16,054
Working capital, $m
  265
  359
  437
  524
  620
  726
  841
  965
  1,099
  1,241
  1,391
  1,550
  1,717
  1,892
  2,075
  2,266
  2,465
  2,673
  2,888
  3,113
  3,346
  3,588
  3,839
  4,101
  4,373
  4,656
  4,950
  5,256
  5,575
  5,908
  6,254
Total debt, $m
  696
  959
  1,309
  1,700
  2,135
  2,612
  3,131
  3,692
  4,292
  4,932
  5,610
  6,326
  7,079
  7,868
  8,693
  9,554
  10,452
  11,387
  12,359
  13,369
  14,419
  15,510
  16,645
  17,823
  19,049
  20,324
  21,650
  23,031
  24,469
  25,967
  27,529
Total liabilities, $m
  1,356
  1,619
  1,969
  2,360
  2,795
  3,272
  3,791
  4,352
  4,952
  5,592
  6,270
  6,986
  7,739
  8,528
  9,353
  10,214
  11,112
  12,047
  13,019
  14,029
  15,079
  16,170
  17,305
  18,483
  19,709
  20,984
  22,310
  23,691
  25,129
  26,627
  28,189
Total equity, $m
  709
  876
  1,065
  1,277
  1,512
  1,770
  2,050
  2,353
  2,678
  3,024
  3,391
  3,778
  4,185
  4,612
  5,058
  5,524
  6,010
  6,515
  7,041
  7,587
  8,155
  8,746
  9,359
  9,996
  10,659
  11,349
  12,066
  12,813
  13,590
  14,401
  15,246
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,065
  2,495
  3,034
  3,637
  4,307
  5,042
  5,841
  6,705
  7,630
  8,616
  9,661
  10,764
  11,924
  13,140
  14,411
  15,738
  17,122
  18,562
  20,060
  21,616
  23,234
  24,916
  26,664
  28,479
  30,368
  32,333
  34,376
  36,504
  38,719
  41,028
  43,435
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.982
  1.100
  1.230
  1.330
  1.410
  1.480
  1.530
  1.570
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  128
  156
  187
  222
  259
  300
  344
  391
  440
  493
  591
  649
  709
  772
  838
  907
  978
  1,053
  1,130
  1,210
  1,293
  1,380
  1,470
  1,563
  1,661
  1,762
  1,867
  1,977
  2,092
  2,211
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  96
  104
  113
  123
  134
  146
  159
  172
  187
  203
  160
  178
  196
  215
  235
  255
  277
  299
  322
  346
  371
  397
  424
  453
  482
  512
  544
  577
  611
  647
Funds from operations, $m
  156
  224
  260
  300
  345
  393
  446
  503
  563
  627
  695
  751
  826
  905
  987
  1,073
  1,162
  1,255
  1,352
  1,452
  1,556
  1,665
  1,777
  1,894
  2,016
  2,143
  2,274
  2,411
  2,554
  2,703
  2,859
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  68
  77
  87
  96
  106
  115
  124
  133
  142
  150
  159
  167
  175
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
  347
Cash from operations, $m
  166
  155
  182
  213
  248
  287
  331
  378
  430
  486
  545
  592
  659
  730
  804
  882
  963
  1,048
  1,136
  1,228
  1,323
  1,422
  1,526
  1,633
  1,744
  1,860
  1,980
  2,105
  2,235
  2,371
  2,512
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -100
  -114
  -128
  -144
  -160
  -178
  -196
  -215
  -235
  -255
  -277
  -299
  -322
  -346
  -371
  -397
  -424
  -453
  -482
  -512
  -544
  -577
  -611
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -175
  -199
  -223
  -248
  -272
  -296
  -319
  -342
  -364
  -386
  -408
  -429
  -449
  -470
  -491
  -511
  -532
  -554
  -575
  -598
  -621
  -646
  -671
  -698
  -726
  -755
  -786
  -819
  -853
  -890
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -106
  -205
  -236
  -268
  -302
  -336
  -371
  -406
  -442
  -478
  -514
  -552
  -589
  -627
  -666
  -706
  -746
  -787
  -831
  -874
  -920
  -967
  -1,017
  -1,068
  -1,122
  -1,179
  -1,237
  -1,298
  -1,363
  -1,430
  -1,501
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  -50
  -54
  -55
  -54
  -49
  -40
  -28
  -12
  7
  30
  41
  70
  103
  138
  177
  217
  260
  306
  353
  403
  455
  508
  564
  622
  681
  743
  807
  872
  941
  1,011
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -46
  306
  349
  392
  435
  477
  519
  560
  601
  640
  678
  716
  753
  789
  825
  861
  898
  934
  972
  1,010
  1,050
  1,091
  1,134
  1,179
  1,226
  1,275
  1,326
  1,381
  1,438
  1,498
  1,562
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  39
  33
  25
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  345
  382
  417
  448
  477
  519
  560
  601
  640
  678
  716
  753
  789
  825
  861
  898
  934
  972
  1,010
  1,050
  1,091
  1,134
  1,179
  1,226
  1,275
  1,326
  1,381
  1,438
  1,498
  1,562
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  296
  328
  361
  394
  429
  479
  532
  589
  647
  709
  757
  823
  892
  964
  1,038
  1,115
  1,195
  1,278
  1,364
  1,453
  1,546
  1,642
  1,743
  1,847
  1,956
  2,069
  2,187
  2,310
  2,439
  2,573
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  -167
  -189
  -212
  -235
  -258
  -281
  -303
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -446
  -466
  -485
  -505
  -526
  -546
  -568
  -590
  -613
  -638
  -663
  -689
  -717
  -747
  -778
  -810
  -845
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  129
  140
  149
  159
  171
  198
  229
  264
  301
  342
  369
  416
  465
  517
  572
  629
  689
  752
  817
  885
  956
  1,029
  1,105
  1,184
  1,266
  1,352
  1,440
  1,533
  1,629
  1,728
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  120
  121
  119
  116
  112
  117
  120
  122
  121
  119
  109
  103
  96
  87
  77
  68
  58
  48
  39
  31
  24
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.3
  95.5
  94.4
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9

ACCO Brands Corporation is engaged in designing, marketing and manufacturing of branded business, academic and selected consumer products. The Company operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands International and Computer Products Group. The Company's brands include Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Kensington, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra and Wilson Jones. The Company's ACCO Brands North America and ACCO Brands International design, market, source, manufacture and sell traditional office products, academic supplies and calendar products. ACCO Brands North America consists of the United States and Canada, and ACCO Brands International consists of the rest of the world, primarily Northern Europe, Australia, Brazil and Mexico. Its Computer Products Group designs, sources, distributes, markets and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers and tablets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ACCO Brands (ACCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 88.4%
Total Debt to Equity 98.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 14.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 23.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1557 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ACCO Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ACCO Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for ACCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ACCO Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ACCO Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for ACCO Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ACCO Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACCO are equal to 48%.

Life of production assets of 24.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ACCO Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACCO is equal to 18.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $709 million for ACCO Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.475 million for ACCO Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ACCO Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Acco beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-30-17 07:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Acco beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-01-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ACCO Brands Corp. : July 28, 2017   [Jul-28-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ACCO Brands Corp. : July 18, 2017   [Jul-18-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ACCO Brands Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ACCO Brands Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for May 30th   [May-30-17 10:43AM  Zacks]
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Financial statements of ACCO
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