Intrinsic value of ACCO Brands - ACCO

Previous Close

$10.09

  Intrinsic Value

$22.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+122%

Previous close

$10.09

 
Intrinsic value

$22.45

 
Up/down potential

+122%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ACCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,988
  2,033
  2,086
  2,144
  2,209
  2,281
  2,358
  2,443
  2,533
  2,630
  2,734
  2,845
  2,963
  3,089
  3,222
  3,364
  3,513
  3,671
  3,838
  4,014
  4,201
  4,397
  4,604
  4,822
  5,051
  5,293
  5,547
  5,815
  6,096
  6,393
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,772
  1,809
  1,852
  1,900
  1,953
  2,011
  2,074
  2,143
  2,217
  2,296
  2,230
  2,320
  2,417
  2,519
  2,628
  2,743
  2,865
  2,994
  3,130
  3,274
  3,426
  3,586
  3,754
  3,932
  4,119
  4,316
  4,524
  4,742
  4,972
  5,213
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,772
  1,809
  1,852
  1,900
  1,953
  2,011
  2,074
  2,143
  2,217
  2,296
  2,230
  2,320
  2,417
  2,519
  2,628
  2,743
  2,865
  2,994
  3,130
  3,274
  3,426
  3,586
  3,754
  3,932
  4,119
  4,316
  4,524
  4,742
  4,972
  5,213
Operating income, $m
  216
  224
  234
  245
  257
  270
  284
  300
  316
  334
  504
  525
  547
  570
  594
  621
  648
  677
  708
  741
  775
  811
  849
  890
  932
  976
  1,023
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
EBITDA, $m
  409
  418
  429
  441
  454
  469
  485
  502
  521
  541
  562
  585
  609
  635
  662
  691
  722
  755
  789
  825
  864
  904
  946
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,140
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  267
  283
Earnings before tax, $m
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  251
  416
  431
  446
  463
  480
  499
  518
  539
  561
  584
  609
  635
  662
  690
  720
  752
  786
  821
  858
  896
Tax expense, $m
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
Net income, $m
  121
  125
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  304
  314
  326
  338
  351
  364
  378
  394
  410
  427
  444
  463
  483
  504
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,856
  2,922
  2,997
  3,081
  3,174
  3,277
  3,389
  3,509
  3,640
  3,779
  3,929
  4,088
  4,258
  4,438
  4,630
  4,833
  5,047
  5,274
  5,514
  5,768
  6,035
  6,317
  6,614
  6,927
  7,257
  7,605
  7,970
  8,355
  8,759
  9,185
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,856
  2,922
  2,997
  3,081
  3,174
  3,277
  3,389
  3,509
  3,640
  3,779
  3,929
  4,088
  4,258
  4,438
  4,630
  4,833
  5,047
  5,274
  5,514
  5,768
  6,035
  6,317
  6,614
  6,927
  7,257
  7,605
  7,970
  8,355
  8,759
  9,185
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
  0.696
Average production assets, $m
  922
  944
  968
  995
  1,025
  1,058
  1,094
  1,133
  1,175
  1,220
  1,269
  1,320
  1,375
  1,433
  1,495
  1,561
  1,630
  1,703
  1,781
  1,863
  1,949
  2,040
  2,136
  2,237
  2,344
  2,456
  2,574
  2,698
  2,829
  2,966
Working capital, $m
  262
  268
  275
  283
  292
  301
  311
  322
  334
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  580
  608
  636
  667
  699
  732
  768
  805
  844
Total debt, $m
  972
  1,020
  1,074
  1,135
  1,203
  1,277
  1,357
  1,445
  1,539
  1,640
  1,748
  1,863
  1,986
  2,116
  2,255
  2,401
  2,557
  2,721
  2,894
  3,078
  3,271
  3,475
  3,690
  3,916
  4,154
  4,405
  4,670
  4,948
  5,240
  5,548
Total liabilities, $m
  2,065
  2,112
  2,167
  2,228
  2,295
  2,369
  2,450
  2,537
  2,631
  2,732
  2,840
  2,956
  3,078
  3,209
  3,347
  3,494
  3,649
  3,813
  3,987
  4,170
  4,363
  4,567
  4,782
  5,009
  5,247
  5,498
  5,762
  6,040
  6,333
  6,641
Total equity, $m
  791
  809
  830
  853
  879
  908
  939
  972
  1,008
  1,047
  1,088
  1,132
  1,179
  1,229
  1,282
  1,339
  1,398
  1,461
  1,528
  1,598
  1,672
  1,750
  1,832
  1,919
  2,010
  2,106
  2,208
  2,314
  2,426
  2,544
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,856
  2,921
  2,997
  3,081
  3,174
  3,277
  3,389
  3,509
  3,639
  3,779
  3,928
  4,088
  4,257
  4,438
  4,629
  4,833
  5,047
  5,274
  5,515
  5,768
  6,035
  6,317
  6,614
  6,928
  7,257
  7,604
  7,970
  8,354
  8,759
  9,185
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.490
  1.530
  1.570
  1.610
  1.650
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.830
  1.860
  1.890
  1.930
  1.960
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.070
  2.090
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  125
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  183
  304
  314
  326
  338
  351
  364
  378
  394
  410
  427
  444
  463
  483
  504
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  193
  194
  195
  196
  198
  199
  201
  203
  204
  206
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  314
  319
  325
  332
  340
  349
  358
  368
  378
  390
  361
  374
  388
  403
  419
  435
  453
  471
  491
  511
  533
  556
  580
  606
  632
  661
  690
  722
  755
  789
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  309
  313
  319
  325
  332
  339
  348
  357
  366
  377
  348
  360
  373
  386
  401
  416
  433
  450
  469
  488
  508
  530
  553
  577
  602
  629
  657
  686
  717
  750
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -266
Free cash flow, $m
  249
  250
  251
  254
  256
  260
  263
  268
  273
  278
  244
  251
  258
  266
  274
  283
  293
  303
  314
  325
  337
  350
  364
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  484
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  40
  47
  54
  61
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  174
  183
  193
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  40
  47
  54
  61
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  174
  183
  193
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  289
  298
  306
  314
  324
  334
  344
  355
  367
  379
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  467
  487
  508
  531
  554
  579
  605
  632
  661
  691
  723
  757
  792
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  272
  279
  285
  291
  298
  305
  313
  322
  331
  341
  310
  322
  333
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  421
  438
  457
  476
  497
  518
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  674
Discount rate, %
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  253
  241
  225
  210
  194
  178
  162
  146
  130
  115
  89
  77
  66
  56
  46
  38
  30
  24
  19
  14
  11
  8
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ACCO Brands Corporation is engaged in designing, marketing and manufacturing of branded business, academic and selected consumer products. The Company operates through three segments: ACCO Brands North America, ACCO Brands International and Computer Products Group. The Company's brands include Artline, AT-A-GLANCE, Derwent, Esselte, Five Star, GBC, Hilroy, Kensington, Leitz, Marbig, Mead, NOBO, Quartet, Rapid, Rexel, Swingline, Tilibra and Wilson Jones. The Company's ACCO Brands North America and ACCO Brands International design, market, source, manufacture and sell traditional office products, academic supplies and calendar products. ACCO Brands North America consists of the United States and Canada, and ACCO Brands International consists of the rest of the world, primarily Northern Europe, Australia, Brazil and Mexico. Its Computer Products Group designs, sources, distributes, markets and sells accessories for laptop and desktop computers and tablets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ACCO Brands (ACCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 88.4%
Total Debt to Equity 98.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 14.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 23.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ACCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ACCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1948.8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ACCO Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ACCO Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ACCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for ACCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ACCO Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ACCO Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ACCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ACCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ACCO Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ACCO Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ACCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ACCO are equal to 46.4%.

Life of production assets of 22 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ACCO Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ACCO is equal to 13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $774.1 million for ACCO Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.488 million for ACCO Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ACCO Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ ACCO Brands Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-31-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Acco: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ ACCO Brands Corporation To Acquire GOBA Internacional   [Jun-14-18 06:40AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ ACCO Brands Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-01-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Acco: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:57AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Acco beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-30-17 07:19AM  Associated Press]

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